Nicky: Set Odds On NBA Finals Series Matchups

[onthewhat]

Lakers/Celtics with and without Garnett
Lakers/Cavs
Lakers/Magic

[Nicky Santoro]

Lakers/Cavs-- i'll only do this one cause it's the most common one.. the rest might be a waste of time.


Lakers -160
Cavs +140

[Brock Landers]

would crack up if LA didn't make it, everyone and his dog has written off Houston, Dallas, and Denver. Denver looks pretty fukkin good.

[diogee]

So looks like LA is a LOCK to make it...hopefully Billups has something to say about that.

[yisman]

The only lock is that the Celtics won't make it.

[fearless]

I agree with what Charles Barkley said, it would take a miracle for it not to be Lakers/Cavs in the finals.

[onthewhat]

Nicky what is your Lakers/Magic odds?

[Nicky Santoro]

my guess would be

Lakers -270
Magic +230

[j0hnnyv]

magic +220 has value imo.

[onthewhat]

Nicky, bet Magic

[pavyracer]

I'm betting Magic huge.

[MonkeyF0cker]

My numbers say fair value is +/- 194.

[onthewhat]

My numbers say fair value is +/- 194.

When is the line going to come out?

[SBR Lou]

When is the line going to come out?

Already out

Pinnacle
801 Orlando Magic +229
802 Los Angeles Lakers -259

[MonkeyF0cker]

Not sure.

[onthewhat]

Nicky was very close

[Nicky Santoro]

my guess would be

Lakers -270
Magic +230

you cant get closer than that, boys..

it's

Lakers -259
Magic +229


There ain't too many lines i don't come within 10 cents..

[MonkeyF0cker]

Insane value on the Magic according to my numbers then...

11.9% edge...

[Nicky Santoro]

Insane value on the Magic according to my numbers then...

11.9% edge...

lol lol

like your #'s actually mean something?? LOL


don't make me laugh man..

it's my #'s you should be going with, not yours.. yours mean squat..

[MonkeyF0cker]

You gave a 40 cent line. What's fair value in your line exactly, Nicky?

[InTheHole]

Here we go again

[smitch124]

lol value in the Laker's opponent, not exactly surprising. Wish I could bet into Pinny...

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm more concerned with the closing number anyway. Let's see who's closer when game one tips off.

But I'd be real impressed if Nicky could actually give a no-vig line on his OWN line. That's like wishing Santa Claus was real though.

[Nicky Santoro]

You gave a 40 cent line. What's fair value in your line exactly, Nicky?

so what.. oly has a 60 cent line now.

ok, so if i made it a 30 cent line, it'd be -265/+235, which is even closer to the actual line..lol


i can't stop laughing about your +/- 194.. and then you say that's the real price so there must be value.. LOL


and then you got the nerve to say i am clueless.. you cant even come within 50 cents of the series price.. lol

[MonkeyF0cker]

Just give the answer to the question, Nicky. It's not hard. What's the no-vig price on your line?

[englishmike]

lol value in the Laker's opponent, not exactly surprising. Wish I could bet into Pinny...

Whilst I'm flattered Smitch, you need to update the avatar.

I've been found.

[onthewhat]

Uhh..Monkey if you found an 11% edge...your numbers are off somewhere.....

[smitch124]

Whilst I'm flattered Smitch, you need to update the avatar.

I've been found.

Those milk cartons do work! I thought they were BS til now

[MonkeyF0cker]

so what.. oly has a 60 cent line now.

ok, so if i made it a 30 cent line, it'd be -265/+235, which is even closer to the actual line..lol


i can't stop laughing about your +/- 194.. and then you say that's the real price so there must be value.. LOL


and then you got the nerve to say i am clueless.. you cant even come within 50 cents of the series price.. lol

And *POOF* Nicky vanishes. I'd love to know how you calculated a 40 cent line without finding fair value first...

Shall I give the answer to the question since you're incapable of answering a simple question from your own numbers?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Uhh..Monkey if you found an 11% edge...your numbers are off somewhere.....

Like I said, we'll see how far off they are after tip off in game one.

[onthewhat]

Monkey with an 11% edge I guess you will be risking like 10% of the bankroll or something on Magic series price? (whatever the proper percentage of the roll is to bet with that edge)

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't usually bet futures.

[smitch124]

I don't usually bet futures.

This might be a time to make an exception, do any Vegas books have a line yet?

[MonkeyF0cker]

True. Hilton might. I'll be looking tomorrow.

[Nicky Santoro]

i had to step out..

-270/+230

no vig line = +240.8.