The Spurs are the play tonight...

[SBR Lou]

San Antonio -5.

63% are on Dallas.

SA has the pride factor in not wanting to be dismissed at home, lets not forget how they easily handled Dallas in desperation mode for game 2.

The dynasty ain't over, yet..

[SportsTerminator]

I would just take the San Antonio Spurs Moneyline. I don't trust the Spurs -5 that's why prob. 63% are on 5+.

[daggerkobe]

Yeah take the ML -225..... been working well for u.

[SBR Lou]

Yeah take the ML -225..... been working well for u.

The value is ATS in this individual instance.

[HoulihansTX]

Dude i have nothing against you, but gotta fade you on this play.

[007Fatty]

Yea i would say fade away.
nothing against you either louu.

[betplom]

CarazyL

I see you are now a moderator here at SBR, when did that happen?

Did Vegas Dave put in the word?

[VegasDave]

Lou, no problem with the play, but just so you know from a fade the public standpoint, 63% is pretty insignificant. Not that there is any magic number per se, but I don't think the public lean is too notably strong if it is under 70%.

[VegasDave]

In fact, every road team today has 60% of the action going their way at the moment

[BatemanPatrickl]

No play for me.

[pavyracer]

Here we go again...

[RoagBettor]

Spurs are done. They want this season to end, they know they can't beat Houston or the Lakers. Duncan is miserable, it's time for them to go home for the summer.

[SBR Lou]

Lou, no problem with the play, but just so you know from a fade the public standpoint, 63% is pretty insignificant. Not that there is any magic number per se, but I don't think the public lean is too notably strong if it is under 70%.

The 63% is just some peripheral support, the Spurs are 17-3 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in last 20 home playoff games. From those games, they are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS if home following a loss.

[daggerkobe]

Mavs ML being flooded after this post.

[jjgold]

I like Spurs in 1st half

[smitch124]

Spurs miss this fella too much:

[NBA Hero]

Mavs ML being flooded after this post.

just the humor of you guys. im glad lou is not on bos and hous

[csimmalavong]

i agree spurs or nothing

[bobbyheart]

I am hoping for Dallas to take the series....I think Dallas is the best bet to knock out the Lake show.

[bobbyfk]

on Spurs as well Lou

[andrewevans512]

take Dallas +5, spurs dont got chit to play for mavericks are gonna sweep the floor

[durito]

The value is ATS in this individual instance.

Exactly how did you quantify this?

[pavyracer]

Exactly how did you quantify this?

same way he figured out the Miami Heat ML last night

[Mac4Lyfe]

Spur's have just one guy that can score... Tony Parker is making up for 4 other stiffs. Duncan can't play 4 quarters and its very hard to have any faith in Matt Bonner or Drew "if I only had a brain" Gooden.

Dallas is horrible on the road but the Spur's are too old for me.

[SportsTerminator]

Miami wasn't playing for their playoff lives the Spurs are. I do not expect them to go down at home. The Spurs still want to win l0l. The Spurs wouldn't lose at home losing the series, they have too much pride. I expect Parker to go off tonight, he has too l0l. I also expect all the role players to have a good game, the shooters. The Spurs ML is the right pick.

[SBR Lou]

Exactly how did you quantify this?

Based on what I posted below, the expected win % of ML is not significantly higher than expected ATS %. Thus, bigger edge over the -110.

Spurs are 17-3 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in last 20 home playoff games. From those games, they are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS if home following a loss.

[andrewevans512]

same way he figured out the Miami Heat ML last night

lmao lost my ass on that one

[Renojaguar]

Lou is right I'm going with the spurs tonight.

[SexyMit]

same way he figured out the Miami Heat ML last night

[SexyMit]

I was leaning Spurs until I saw this thread.

[PorkChop]

Spurs - 5, is the play. Dont thin poppavich (spelling?)...is going to let his team go down tonight at home. Not happening. Spurs win by 8+.

[daggerkobe]

Mavs ML being flooded after this post.

[Tsoprano]

Lou, your picks are worth throwing up on