Ellsbury just stole home base

Justin7 · 04-26-09, 09:30 PM

How the hell are you supposed to handicap these type of events? Boston hasn't had a straight steal of home in 15 years...

mathdotcom · 04-26-09, 09:34 PM

Are you trying to say, Justin, that if it weren't for a few of these strange events you'd pretty much have it down?

Justin7 · 04-26-09, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Are you trying to say, Justin, that if it weren't for a few of these strange events you'd pretty much have it down?

No, too many weird distributions. But eliminating these odd things would make my job easier.

onthewhat · 04-26-09, 10:14 PM

He would have scored on the double anyways Justin

Someone stole home off Pettite last year

mathdotcom · 04-26-09, 10:16 PM

How is Ellsbury stealing home any different, from your perspective, than a player hitting one more home run than expected?

Shortstop · 04-27-09, 02:58 AM

Home Plate.

tacomax · 04-27-09, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by Shortstop

Home Plate.

He doesn't know a lot about baseball - he's a Yankees fan.

Emmett Brown · 04-27-09, 03:26 AM

The Yankees try to buy championships and still lose

donjuan · 04-27-09, 03:45 AM

How is Ellsbury stealing home any different, from your perspective, than a player hitting one more home run than expected?

Is this meant as a serious question? Obviously a player hitting a home run is part of Justin's distribution. Stealing home is probably not accounted for because it is such a rare event. And if it is, it's annoying to have to include it when it is so rare.

tacomax · 04-27-09, 04:53 AM

pinnaclesports is the best betting book

Chi_archie · 04-27-09, 09:06 AM

Pettite has had a handful of people steal home off him now...... maybe as many as 5... he is too indifferent out there at times and goes full windup with a runner on third....

a straight steal of home is one of the most exciting plays in baseball that 98% of fans will never see in person....and Inside the parker is pretty awesome, I saw one of those.....

but a triple play or straight steal of home would be pretty amazing to see for one play... otherwise I wanna see Paul Maholm toss a perfect game in person this year at PNC

JohnMorr08 · 04-27-09, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by onthewhat

He would have scored on the double anyways Justin

Someone stole home off Pettite last year

If Ellsbury doesn't steal home... does Drew hit the double? I'm obviously not looking for an answer but that was my exact thought last night as it happened. I think it took some pressure off of JD and added some pressure to Andy.

I still can't believe it happended... GREAT STUFF.

Chi_archie · 04-27-09, 09:41 AM

yeah good point JohnMorr.... hard to believe you could just shake off a steal of home and not still be thinking about it, during his next windup instead of his check points to repeat his motion.. such as.... "how the fuk did he steal home?, who does that? wait, haven't I let 4 other guys do this???, gosh Sportscenter is gonna lead with this....." so yeah you can't rewind the plays and say "oh he would have scored anyways" because if play A doesn't happen, play B might not happen.....