Justin 7

[pat venditto]

What are the chances of a person beating the pinny closing line by 10 cents for 100 plays and betting 1 unit per play and not profiting?

ie closing pinning line -110 and I have +100 for 100 straight games?

[Justin7]

What are the chances of a person beating the pinny closing line by 10 cents for 100 plays and betting 1 unit per play and not profiting?

ie closing pinning line -110 and I have +100 for 100 straight games?

Odds of someone beating the closing number this strongly: close to 0

Odds of someone doing this losing: between 10% to 33%.

Make it 1000 plays: About 1-3%.

[Bread]

Justin7 is everywhere.

All the time.

God Bless.

[Iwinyourmoney]

fukin eraser money

[Chi_archie]

wow, fast response

[pico]

impossible.

[Wrecktangle]

You can't really answer this question until you discuss your bankroll management technique, i.e. flat bets, some sort of Kelly (but only full Kelly has been "shown" to be "optimal"), or a version of Martingale. I've seen other BR variants, but I think those are the main branches of the tree in terms of risk.

Also, your results across the techniques can be summed up in a frequency distribution but right now you've not defined the BR method closely enough to calc it. So it cannot be a as narrow as the one Justin7 has stated. I think he is assuming some version of a Kelly, which is damn near impossible for 99.999% of punters on the globe to manage as you better get your Bayesian Priors collected and understood. Since understanding Bayesian Statistics is only this side of understanding Quantum Mechanics for 99.999% of the folks walking this planet, Kelly will absolutely NOT work for them.

Bottom line: if you don't know what a Bayesian Prior is, or how to calculate it, or believe in it (a bunch of classical Statistician that I've run into do not), you cannot use Kelly...unless you don't mind losing your shirt more or less quickly...but its your money, lose it as fast as you like.

[Justin7]

You can't really answer this question until you discuss your bankroll management technique, i.e. flat bets, some sort of Kelly (but only full Kelly has been "shown" to be "optimal"), or a version of Martingale. I've seen other BR variants, but I think those are the main branches of the tree in terms of risk.

I assumed flat-betting a trivial amount so that you don't have to resize.

[pavyracer]

What are the chances of a person beating the pinny closing line by 10 cents for 100 plays and betting 1 unit per play and not profiting?

ie closing pinning line -110 and I have +100 for 100 straight games?

Very good chance of doing this on a consistent basis if you have a game plan that will allow you to do so without risking any more units that you would have risked otherwise.

[Wrecktangle]

...and betting 1 unit per play and not profiting?
?

Whoops...yeah...I need to read the post before I post.

...ready, fire, aim...

Apologies

[Richkas]

What are the chances of a person beating the pinny closing line by 10 cents for 100 plays and betting 1 unit per play and not profiting?

ie closing pinning line -110 and I have +100 for 100 straight games?

you winning at sports betting about a zillion to one

[Nicky Santoro]

What are the chances of a person beating the pinny closing line by 10 cents for 100 plays?

patty, the chance of you doing this is about 1 in 234235 zillion.. you can never do this.. IMPOSSIBLE.. patty, out of 100 games, maybe 42 you'll beat the closing line, 42 will go against you, and 16 will barely move and you will get the real price..

patty, if you are not getting info on these games some way, you have NO CHANCE of consistenley beating the closing #.. you can't just look at a line and say, it will move this way, cause it won't.. half the time, it will go against what you think will happen..

[InTheHole]

Nicky....go ALL IN on the Habs...great "value"

[durito]

can we get an iq requirement over here

[InTheHole]

It was cross posted Durito hence all of the non-significants in your sub-forum...including myself

[Nicky Santoro]

inner, i love the habs tonight.. there is some great value there.. inner, i'm telling you buddy, this is the best habs team put together since 1977.. i will be at the parade in 1.5 months, and i will film it for all here and i promise to give you a shout out in the vid..

[InTheHole]

Heah Nicky...I am on Vancou @ 1200. I have a series on Calgary @ 210. Send me positive mojo

[Wrecktangle]

can we get an iq requirement over here

...you'd get NO posts...

We had one over at the T-Tank at MajorWager and now its a ghost town...

SBR, in their wisdom, not to mention greed, puts up with dumbsh*t posters like me for a reason.

[daggerkobe]

you winning at sports betting about a zillion to one

1000%.

He's the odds on favorite to become the next CL killer to payoff his bookies.

[durito]

...you'd get NO posts...

We had one over at the T-Tank at MajorWager and now its a ghost town...

SBR, in their wisdom, not to mention greed, puts up with dumbsh*t posters like me for a reason.

i certainly wasn't referring to you. didn't realize this was in players talk too. carry on.

[Wrecktangle]

durito: thanks, but my post WAS a dumbsh*t response to the Q...

[Casi]

Very good chance of doing this on a consistent basis if you have a game plan that will allow you to do so without risking any more units that you would have risked otherwise.

The nonsense in this sentence is impressive,even for general talk responses

[trixtrix]

maybe op is referring to some exotic props that pinny is dealing 20-30c spread on..

[pavyracer]

The nonsense in this sentence is impressive,even for general talk responses

Thanks...I thought I needed to contribute into the elite Think Tank forum.

[The HG]

mods -

can we get the intelligent posts in this thread removed from Players Talk please? None of us in PT want to read that crap.

[smitch124]

mods -

can we get the intelligent posts in this thread removed from Players Talk please? None of us in PT want to read that crap.

I agree, I was promised that I would never have to see the word Bayesian.

[reno cool]

I agree, I was promised that I would never have to see the word Bayesian.

this thread

[InTheHole]

yeah...can we get a geek check up in this thread

[fiveteamer]

guys just gamble for fun and don't go over your head.

god bless.

[Wrecktangle]

...whew, I always thought some sh*t was posted at PT, but Inthehole's avatar is convincing...