Baseball Philosophy Pick Experiment (2009)

[VegasDave]

Those of you that know me know that I cap around 51% in just about everything... better than a coinflip, but not good enough to avoid losing money.

The only exception to this rule is my philosophy picks in the NFL, which I had a great season with last year and am hitting over 60% with over the last four years. They are based on going against the "extremely obvious" and attempting to spring trap lines.

Here's the video I did on them a few months back...



Anyway, I've only been able to get these to work in pro football. Never tried them in hockey or baseball, tried them a bit in basketball but that was based only on line movement as I don't know much about the sport. Baseball I know more about than any sport probably (including football), so I can get it to work in baseball? Only one way to find out. Try.

Don't advise tailing or anything in the early stages as this is experimental. Let's see how we do!

[VegasDave]

Season 0 - 0 - 0, +0.00 Units

Today's Play: San Francisco +113 (5dimes)

The Padres are off to a very hot start. Matt Cain is also a respectable pitcher, but getting Peavy at only -120 against a lowly San Francisco team just seems way too conspicuous to me. 80% of bets are on San Diego on the money line, a seemingly obvious choice.

[VegasDave]

San Fran gets this off to a good start

[Chi_archie]

i don't think this will work as well as football davey good times.....

each football game is like 10 baseball games in terms of sched and importance......

more focus, intensity, emotion, ect are poured into one football game as opposed to a baseball game....

but hey let's see how it goes...

[VegasDave]

i don't think this will work as well as football davey good times.....

each football game is like 10 baseball games in terms of sched and importance......

more focus, intensity, emotion, ect are poured into one football game as opposed to a baseball game....

but hey let's see how it goes...

Agreed; spot on assessment. That is the beauty of football... an embarassing loss at home as a favorite one week, now a dog at home this week... teams have an entire week to be angry as hell about their last game and get amped for the next one.

Baseball season is so long that you really can't let what happened in the last game bother you. And it isn't the type of sport you can really physically take out your aggression on an opponent, either.

But as you say we shall see. I'll be looking more for the way-off lines then the "revenge" aspect in bases.

[Chi_archie]

maybe if you played it as series instead of individual games?

for instance the marlins vs buccos could have been a philosophy pick for the bucs

and the nats vs braves could have been a philosophy pick for the nats....

[VegasDave]

Season 1 - 0 - 0, +1.13 Units

Today's Play: Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 10.5 -115 (5dimes)

Carlos Zambrano VS. Aaron Harang and I have to eat chalk to get 11 runs across? Lilly and Cueto were set at 8.5, and that game finished 3-0. I understand wind might be a factor and both of these guys are coming off of bad starts, but Harang looks back in pre-08 form after his first two starts, and Zambrano in 181 IP has a 3.03 ERA career against the Reds. It is hard for me to believe that BOTH of these guys are going to have terrible starts. Maybe I'm off base, but getting +105 on the under 10.5 with two pitchers capible of going 9 shutout innings when on just seems like waaaay too nice a price.

[JGILL50]

^^^nice^^^

[VegasDave]

^^^nice^^^

Still taking a wait and see approach on this theory, but when a game strikes me as a typo, that's an indication to me that something is up

[JGILL50]

yeah this is too obvious to be a wait and see for me somthing is def. up

[VegasDave]

yeah this is too obvious to be a wait and see for me somthing is def. up

Sounds good, good luck

[ElCapitan]

So are you saying to take the under or the over? From your write up is seems that you like the under but you listed the over as your play in bold. Are you writing the write up in the "non-philosophy" point of view?

[JGILL50]

he is not betting but going for the over because he feels the oddsmakers want the public to take the under

[EaglesPhan36]

I think big numbers in general on totals lean to the public going under in baseball unless it's two limp doosh pitchers going at it. This one people will see Zambrano and almost automatically think the under is a bargain. I took a small chunk on the over just for kicks.

[VegasDave]

Wow, apparently this wasn't a philosophy pick and the under really was the easiest bet of all time

[JGILL50]

didnt place my bet on time so i guess that was the gambling gods helping me out