MNF POLL : Bears at Chargers

**Bbfromgpt** · 11-09-15, 09:36 PM

Lol they just can't get out of their own way

**Bbfromgpt** · 11-09-15, 09:46 PM

Wow refs took care of SD first half bets with a real shady call. Only can shake your head at the bs in the league today

**intermission** · 11-09-15, 10:11 PM

fukkkkk I hope floyd come back, I have him and woodhead in fantasy and I need 10 more points!!! come on woody give me 11 more points!!!

**Bbfromgpt** · 11-09-15, 10:13 PM

Floyd looks like he may be done. Probably a separated shoulder

**intermission** · 11-09-15, 10:16 PM

goddammit I dropped allen for floyd

**Montana77** · 11-09-15, 10:18 PM

is it just me or that punter for SD kinda blows?

**Bbfromgpt** · 11-09-15, 10:27 PM

Bahaha Robbie Gould paid off

**KVB** · 11-09-15, 10:31 PM

Horrible kicking game tonight.

**recon1** · 11-10-15, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by KVB

I have a predicted score of Chicago winning 28-24. This differs from most forecasts who have SD winning by anywhere from 4 to 12 points. The higher the margin for San Diego, in general, the lower the Total predicted. Basic models predicting San Diego by about 4 have totals of about 50. More sophisticated models can predict San Diego by more with a total closer to 45.

While my model differs on the winner I have plenty of reason to side with the more common numbers. I have metrics indicating my moneyline prediction will fail here but it is difficult to predict the spread.

It seems that most discussion pulls this common money away from San Diego towards my line. This money is split as the more sophisticated common models seek San Diego.

I think there is a target group of bettors tonight that should fail. Those bettors are, for the most part, likely buying Chicago and the books will take any extra money that way. Those seeking San Diego may get a win here tonight but shouldn’t feel too emboldened when they do.

Because of this last warning to those bettors, I believe we will see attempts to embolden those bettors.

This would imply San Diego to not only win, but possibly kill many teasers with Chicago in them.

I went with your model ML

**xdodger19** · 11-10-15, 12:06 AM

winner sd -2 first half, thought 4.5 points was too much

**Falco88** · 11-10-15, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by paco

Cutler

walking to the cash window now with my chargers ticket

This retard

**recon1** · 11-10-15, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by paco

Cash those charger bets boys

Last time i used this cocky rhetoric cashing tickets before end game i lost 4.5k and to make matters worse it was only on this last Sunday.
Lessons learned repeatedly are the toughest ones.

**Pick9** · 11-10-15, 03:50 PM

what was the name of the idiot charger player who spiked the ball at bears 3 yard line? bears ml betters should send him a cut

**pavyracer** · 11-10-15, 07:59 PM

We all nailed the Bears ML. Books burial.

**pavyracer** · 11-10-15, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Pick9

what was the name of the idiot charger player who spiked the ball at bears 3 yard line? bears ml betters should send him a cut

Stevie Wonder.

**KVB** · 11-11-15, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by recon1

I went with your model ML