2009 NHL Western Conference First Round Preview
Sharks and Red Wings start second seasons
From start to finish in the regular season, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings looked a tier above all others. But now the real test begins; will the two juggernauts advance to the Western Semifinals?
For some teams, the regular season was a mere formality, an afterthought before the season even began with a playoff berth a total certainty. For others, the spot was hard-earned and bitterly fought for to the very end, overcoming adversity and doubt along the way.
But how they got here is no longer relevant. The West has been narrowed down to eight teams, and it will soon be narrowed down to four. Who will be moving on, and where should we be getting our money down?
#1 San Jose Sharks (-280) VS. #8 Anaheim Ducks (+230)
Of all the teams fighting for the final available playoff spots down the stretch, the Anaheim Ducks were just about the worst possible first round opponent the Sharks could have drawn.
Unlike the Blues and Blue Jackets who are simply happy to be in the playoffs, the Ducks have had great postseason success in recent years. While this is certainly a different team than the one that won the cup a few years ago, it has many of the same key players; and they believe in each other and know what they are capable of.
The Sharks were undoubtedly the best team in the NHL this year. On paper very few teams can compare, and the same held true on the ice as the Sharks went on to win the President’s Trophy (awarded to the team with the NHL’s best record) despite multiple injuries to key players throughout the year. No team was more dominant than San Jose at home, where they were 32-5-4.
Of course, it figures that they would draw a team that’s record ranks in the Top 5 in the league at home. It also figures they would draw a team that has made two trips to the Stanley Cup Finals in the last six years and won a cup, as opposed to the Blues or Blue Jackets; the Blue Jackets in their first year in the playoffs ever, and the Blues haven’t been to the finals since 1970.
All of the pressure is on this Sharks team. There is no way that their recent playoff woes aren’t on their minds, and that they aren’t (even if they’d never admit it) intimidated by the Ducks, their recent hot streak and their playoff success. The Sharks are the better team, there is no doubt about that. But can they stay out of their own heads long enough to play focused hockey and beat a tough division rival?
In the end, I lean yes; there are too many veterans on this team that have worked too hard to let this team completely lose its composure after coming this far. This should be a very physical and emotionally draining series, and it is hard to imagine it ending in less than six games. While I side with the Sharks in the end, they are 100% unbettable at -280, and it is impossible to turn the Ducks down at the price they are getting, considering it may all come down to a couple of bounces.
PREDICTION: San Jose in 7
SERIES BET: Anaheim to win series at anything over +200
#2 Detroit Red Wings (-525) VS. #7 Columbus Blue Jackets (+405)
Not to be rude, but the Columbus Blue Jackets have already won their Stanley Cup; they made the playoffs.
I could break this series down in depth, point out all the things that Columbus does well and the holes in Detroit’s defense, but I just can’t see any of it mattering. Playoff experience alone could win this series for the Wings; the best offense in the league isn’t going to hurt, either.
Quite simply, the Red Wings are going to win this series. No one can blame you if you want to take a stab on the +400 though; we’ve played this story out before. In 2006, no one gave the No. 8 seed Edmonton Oilers any chance, and then went on to win the series 4-2. In 2003, no one gave the #7 Anaheim Mighty Ducks a chance, and they swept the No. 2 Wings. Two years before that, a lowly No. 7 Kings team beat the Wings 4-2 as well.
The Red Wings overlooking a weaker opponent and having a big letdown? Certainly would be déjà vu all over again. But don’t get your hopes up.
PREDICTION: Detroit in 5
SERIES BET: Small play on Columbus to win series at over +400
#3 Vancouver Canucks (-220) VS. #6 St. Louis Blues (+190)
With the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets looking comfortable holding down two of the three at-large playoff spots in the West with about 10 games to go in the season, one final spot was up for grabs for the Edmonton Oilers, Nashville Predators, and Minnesota Wild.
Or so it seemed. The St. Louis Blues refused to be an afterthought, winning 5 straight to get right back into the thick of things. A 9-1-1 run to end the season brought the Blues all the way up to the No. 6 spot.
Unfortunately for the Blues, the team they ran into hasn’t exactly been cold. Since February, the Canucks have gone 22-7-2, claiming the division crown from the Calgary Flames in the process. With the league’s seventh best goals against average and 11th best offense, the Canucks are extremely well rounded, which could lead to success in these playoffs. Did I mention that they have arguably the best goaltender in hockey as well?
All year long, the Sharks and the Red Wings have been getting all of the attention in the West. Then the Flames go out and trade for Olli Jokinen, and everyone starts raving about how they now might be able to compete against the “Top 2.” Everyone loves the young Blackhawks, feels good for the Blue Jackets for finally making the playoffs, and respects the Ducks and Blues for battling it out for those last few spots.
But what about the Vancouver Canucks? I can’t for the life of me remember a team so quietly putting together such a great hot streak and winning their division. Make no mistake about it, this team is very real, and they are going to be a lot harder to ignore when they prove it against the Blues.
PREDICTION: Vancouver in 5
SERIES BET: Vancouver to win series at anything under -300
#4 Chicago Blackhawks (-170) VS. #5 Calgary Flames (+145)
I’m just going to go ahead and say it. Some people may not want to hear it, some people may disagree adamantly with me, but here it is; the Calgary Flames are overrated.
The trade to acquire Jokinen automatically catapulted the Flames to an insane level of respectability. The trade was widely considered to be the trade that put the Flames over the top and made them a serious Cup contender. But are we really going to ignore some key facts?
1. Mikka Kiprusoff isn’t what he used to be.
When I see the name Kiprusoff, I immediately think one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And he did lead the league in wins this year, which credits this train of thought. It might surprise you to know that Kiprusoff’s GAA and SV% both ranked out of the Top 30 among all goalies. Sure, stats aren’t everything, but Kiprusoff hasn’t been so far away from the top in a while. An excellent Blackhawks offense and a very beat up defensive corps certainly aren’t going to make things better, either.
2. The Flames are slumping.
Since March, the Flames ended the season with a 9-12-0 record, looking largely out of sync while giving up their big division lead to the Canucks.
3. They can’t win on the road!
The Flames had a losing record on the road this year at 19-20-2. Considering that the Blackhawks have home ice advantage (and also happen to be in the Top 5 in the NHL on the road at 22-15-4), this creates a pretty big problem.
4. The Blackhawks are the better team.
Chicago ranked fourth in the league in scoring to Calgary’s 8th. Much more alarmingly, Chicago ranked 5th in the league in goals against (with two reliable goalies in Khabibulin and Huet) to Calgary’s 23rd. Calgary averaged giving up almost a half a goal more per game.
Throwing rankings aside, look no further than the regular season series between these two teams; the Blackhawks won all four times they faced each other, including three wins by a three+ goal margin!
I know what some of you are thinking. That was the regular season, this is the playoffs, none of that matters anymore. Keep telling yourself that. Every single fact leads to Chicago being the right choice here; don’t buy the whole “they are too young” bit. Their age and inexperience may factor in as the playoffs wear on, but they can handle this series.
PREDICTION: Chicago in 6
SERIES BET: Chicago to win series at anything under -200
From start to finish in the regular season, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings looked a tier above all others. But now the real test begins; will the two juggernauts advance to the Western Semifinals?
For some teams, the regular season was a mere formality, an afterthought before the season even began with a playoff berth a total certainty. For others, the spot was hard-earned and bitterly fought for to the very end, overcoming adversity and doubt along the way.
But how they got here is no longer relevant. The West has been narrowed down to eight teams, and it will soon be narrowed down to four. Who will be moving on, and where should we be getting our money down?
#1 San Jose Sharks (-280) VS. #8 Anaheim Ducks (+230)
Of all the teams fighting for the final available playoff spots down the stretch, the Anaheim Ducks were just about the worst possible first round opponent the Sharks could have drawn.
Unlike the Blues and Blue Jackets who are simply happy to be in the playoffs, the Ducks have had great postseason success in recent years. While this is certainly a different team than the one that won the cup a few years ago, it has many of the same key players; and they believe in each other and know what they are capable of.
The Sharks were undoubtedly the best team in the NHL this year. On paper very few teams can compare, and the same held true on the ice as the Sharks went on to win the President’s Trophy (awarded to the team with the NHL’s best record) despite multiple injuries to key players throughout the year. No team was more dominant than San Jose at home, where they were 32-5-4.
Of course, it figures that they would draw a team that’s record ranks in the Top 5 in the league at home. It also figures they would draw a team that has made two trips to the Stanley Cup Finals in the last six years and won a cup, as opposed to the Blues or Blue Jackets; the Blue Jackets in their first year in the playoffs ever, and the Blues haven’t been to the finals since 1970.
All of the pressure is on this Sharks team. There is no way that their recent playoff woes aren’t on their minds, and that they aren’t (even if they’d never admit it) intimidated by the Ducks, their recent hot streak and their playoff success. The Sharks are the better team, there is no doubt about that. But can they stay out of their own heads long enough to play focused hockey and beat a tough division rival?
In the end, I lean yes; there are too many veterans on this team that have worked too hard to let this team completely lose its composure after coming this far. This should be a very physical and emotionally draining series, and it is hard to imagine it ending in less than six games. While I side with the Sharks in the end, they are 100% unbettable at -280, and it is impossible to turn the Ducks down at the price they are getting, considering it may all come down to a couple of bounces.
PREDICTION: San Jose in 7
SERIES BET: Anaheim to win series at anything over +200
#2 Detroit Red Wings (-525) VS. #7 Columbus Blue Jackets (+405)
Not to be rude, but the Columbus Blue Jackets have already won their Stanley Cup; they made the playoffs.
I could break this series down in depth, point out all the things that Columbus does well and the holes in Detroit’s defense, but I just can’t see any of it mattering. Playoff experience alone could win this series for the Wings; the best offense in the league isn’t going to hurt, either.
Quite simply, the Red Wings are going to win this series. No one can blame you if you want to take a stab on the +400 though; we’ve played this story out before. In 2006, no one gave the No. 8 seed Edmonton Oilers any chance, and then went on to win the series 4-2. In 2003, no one gave the #7 Anaheim Mighty Ducks a chance, and they swept the No. 2 Wings. Two years before that, a lowly No. 7 Kings team beat the Wings 4-2 as well.
The Red Wings overlooking a weaker opponent and having a big letdown? Certainly would be déjà vu all over again. But don’t get your hopes up.
PREDICTION: Detroit in 5
SERIES BET: Small play on Columbus to win series at over +400
#3 Vancouver Canucks (-220) VS. #6 St. Louis Blues (+190)
With the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets looking comfortable holding down two of the three at-large playoff spots in the West with about 10 games to go in the season, one final spot was up for grabs for the Edmonton Oilers, Nashville Predators, and Minnesota Wild.
Or so it seemed. The St. Louis Blues refused to be an afterthought, winning 5 straight to get right back into the thick of things. A 9-1-1 run to end the season brought the Blues all the way up to the No. 6 spot.
Unfortunately for the Blues, the team they ran into hasn’t exactly been cold. Since February, the Canucks have gone 22-7-2, claiming the division crown from the Calgary Flames in the process. With the league’s seventh best goals against average and 11th best offense, the Canucks are extremely well rounded, which could lead to success in these playoffs. Did I mention that they have arguably the best goaltender in hockey as well?
All year long, the Sharks and the Red Wings have been getting all of the attention in the West. Then the Flames go out and trade for Olli Jokinen, and everyone starts raving about how they now might be able to compete against the “Top 2.” Everyone loves the young Blackhawks, feels good for the Blue Jackets for finally making the playoffs, and respects the Ducks and Blues for battling it out for those last few spots.
But what about the Vancouver Canucks? I can’t for the life of me remember a team so quietly putting together such a great hot streak and winning their division. Make no mistake about it, this team is very real, and they are going to be a lot harder to ignore when they prove it against the Blues.
PREDICTION: Vancouver in 5
SERIES BET: Vancouver to win series at anything under -300
#4 Chicago Blackhawks (-170) VS. #5 Calgary Flames (+145)
I’m just going to go ahead and say it. Some people may not want to hear it, some people may disagree adamantly with me, but here it is; the Calgary Flames are overrated.
The trade to acquire Jokinen automatically catapulted the Flames to an insane level of respectability. The trade was widely considered to be the trade that put the Flames over the top and made them a serious Cup contender. But are we really going to ignore some key facts?
1. Mikka Kiprusoff isn’t what he used to be.
When I see the name Kiprusoff, I immediately think one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And he did lead the league in wins this year, which credits this train of thought. It might surprise you to know that Kiprusoff’s GAA and SV% both ranked out of the Top 30 among all goalies. Sure, stats aren’t everything, but Kiprusoff hasn’t been so far away from the top in a while. An excellent Blackhawks offense and a very beat up defensive corps certainly aren’t going to make things better, either.
2. The Flames are slumping.
Since March, the Flames ended the season with a 9-12-0 record, looking largely out of sync while giving up their big division lead to the Canucks.
3. They can’t win on the road!
The Flames had a losing record on the road this year at 19-20-2. Considering that the Blackhawks have home ice advantage (and also happen to be in the Top 5 in the NHL on the road at 22-15-4), this creates a pretty big problem.
4. The Blackhawks are the better team.
Chicago ranked fourth in the league in scoring to Calgary’s 8th. Much more alarmingly, Chicago ranked 5th in the league in goals against (with two reliable goalies in Khabibulin and Huet) to Calgary’s 23rd. Calgary averaged giving up almost a half a goal more per game.
Throwing rankings aside, look no further than the regular season series between these two teams; the Blackhawks won all four times they faced each other, including three wins by a three+ goal margin!
I know what some of you are thinking. That was the regular season, this is the playoffs, none of that matters anymore. Keep telling yourself that. Every single fact leads to Chicago being the right choice here; don’t buy the whole “they are too young” bit. Their age and inexperience may factor in as the playoffs wear on, but they can handle this series.
PREDICTION: Chicago in 6
SERIES BET: Chicago to win series at anything under -200
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to be made. Fvck, half my friends grow dope, we just don't carry guns. 
