Tips for fellow posters!

[big joe 1212]

I see too many people on here laying big money on meaningless games!

Motivation is a huge factor! The largest in my book!

People look at stats way too much!

I'm not saying I'm a sharp capper or anything. In fact I lose more than I win in the long run, like 99% of us! I'm just trying to get people to stop overlooking this! I've been warning people a lot lately on this subject, but people always say, "nah, they really want to win this one" yadda yadda yadda!

OK, let me have it!

[SamsNCharge99]

I agree...Stats are OVER-RATED. I tell people that all the time.

Good info Joe

[big joe 1212]

I agree...Stats are OVER-RATED. I tell people that all the time.

Good info Joe

I believe I argued you on this point when you made the 1st Siena/Niagara video and Siena got crushed!

[Justin7]

I'll have to respectfully disagree. Players on a team are nothing more than glorified random number generators. Emotional effects are minimal, and already including in the line. For the most part, I completely ignore "revenge" or other situations.

There are a few that statistically stand out though: super star out (bet on the wounded team), head coach fired (bet on the fired coach's team the first game).

[tacomax]

In fact I lose more than I win in the long run, like 99% of us!

If that's the case, you might want to consider looking at stats.

[SamsNCharge99]

When I bet Siena, it's always with my heart

The only reason why I used stats and stuff is for the video.....I didn't want to make a video like...

so.....uh....guys...bet....Siena.....b/c I like them.....yeah...so ....yeah...bet'em

At least w/ those stats it could convince people who like stats.

Like you know that a lot of ppl like stats like you said, so maybe I convinced someone to bet for or against them based on certain information. I don't use them, but others do

[big joe 1212]

When I bet Siena, it's always with my heart

The only reason why I used stats and stuff is for the video.....I didn't want to make a video like...

so.....uh....guys...bet....Siena.....b/c I like them.....yeah...so ....yeah...bet'em

At least w/ those stats it could convince people who like stats.

Like you know that a lot of ppl like stats like you said, so maybe I convinced someone to bet for or against them based on certain information. I don't use them, but others do

do I need to pull up your quote you made to me?

[SamsNCharge99]

I'm agreeing w/ you Joe..what do you want me to say

[big joe 1212]

I'll have to respectfully disagree. Players on a team are nothing more than glorified random number generators. Emotional effects are minimal, and already including in the line. For the most part, I completely ignore "revenge" or other situations.

There are a few that statistically stand out though: super star out (bet on the wounded team), head coach fired (bet on the fired coach's team the first game).

I ignore the revenge as well. I just look at these huge favorites, especially over payed ones, they really dont care about winning, so how can someone place a large wager on them? If Utah was motivated, they should have won easily tonight. How about Orlando the past couple of days? No way they lose like this if it mattered to them.

[big joe 1212]

If that's the case, you might want to consider looking at stats.

If I would have some discipline, I would have a long term profit!

[Nicky Santoro]

stats schmats..it's all useless. stats mean shit in gambling.. thats why there's a line there.. it's all factored into the line..the more you know about stats of games, the less successful you are. and that's a fact..

[MonkeyF0cker]

How the hell do you think a line is derived, Nicky? Unreal.

[tacomax]

stats schmats..it's all useless. stats mean shit in gambling.. thats why there's a line there.. it's all factored into the line..the more you know about stats of games, the less successful you are. and that's a fact..

Enter Coco The Clown stage left.

[CS-Cedrick]

I see too many people on here laying big money on meaningless games!

Motivation is a huge factor! The largest in my book!

People look at stats way too much!

I'm not saying I'm a sharp capper or anything. In fact I lose more than I win in the long run, like 99% of us! I'm just trying to get people to stop overlooking this! I've been warning people a lot lately on this subject, but people always say, "nah, they really want to win this one" yadda yadda yadda!

OK, let me have it!

You're right from my point of view sir, but, numbers do help a lot the passion you may have.

[big joe 1212]

I think Nicky means, take the team you like, but its about finding the right price/line thats available!

[big joe 1212]

How many threads have we seen this week about picks on meaningless games?


Too many!

[Nicky Santoro]

what i'm saying is if you think you can make a living gambling by knowing stats inside out, you are dreaming..

it's all about betting into weak lines.. that's it.. that's all..

there's no other way..

[big joe 1212]

what i'm saying is if you think you can make a living gambling by knowing stats inside out, you are dreaming..

it's all about betting into weak lines.. that's it.. that's all..

there's no other way..

I agree, unless you get inside info!

[MonkeyF0cker]

And you lose a whole lot of EV when you don't know the lines are weak before they start moving. What do you suppose people who are moving the lines use to determine whether there is value on a particular side?

[pico]

some games are just too easy. but people just keep betting for action...that is why they lose.

[tacomax]

it's all about betting into weak lines.. that's it.. that's all..

How do you determine that they are weak?

[big joe 1212]

The bottom line is that we all know the motivation factor is already included in lines. But some people on here pay no attention to it! They think a team will really try, when that team doesn't really care. That's why the line might be attactive to them!

Just look at the Jazz and Magic!

[LVHerbie]

I'll have to respectfully disagree. Players on a team are nothing more than glorified random number generators. Emotional effects are minimal, and already including in the line. For the most part, I completely ignore "revenge" or other situations.

There are a few that statistically stand out though: super star out (bet on the wounded team), head coach fired (bet on the fired coach's team the first game).

It always amazes me when people quickly skip over over the one gem in an entire thread...

[pico]

jazz and magic. no idea why people bet that crap. degenerates