#13 Michigan VS # 11 Virginia Tech - Why I'm Going Large On VT

[TheMoneyShot]

Let's face it... I live in Michigan... I love the atmosphere at the Big House. Hell... I love Denard Robinson. Who would I thought the Big 10... would have a dynamic QB who is versatile like DR? He's amazing to watch!

But... with every positive... why not look at the negatives? Here is why Michigan shouldn't be ranked 13th in the nation.

1. They had the weakest schedule. Is it just my opinion? Or is it on paper?

2. They had the most home games. Yes, they went 8-0. Easy to play anyone when you have 110,000+ fans supporting you.

3. Michigan's D hasn't been challenged. Haven't faced a speed team like VT. Hasn't faced an ACC team.

4. True Test for Michigan's leader Denard Robinson... Does he have the leadership in a BIG GAME like this?


Here's what I think will happen...

Virginia Tech will force Robinson to pass. We all know he isn't the most accurate QB in college football. Yes, his speed opens up passing lanes and his ability to scramble. Frank Beamer's game plan? That's easy... there will be a spy on Denard almost every single down. Beamer will force him to prove his accuracy to the world. I expect many multiple blitz packages every 2 to 3 downs. I expect defensive formations and schemes VT hasn't showed on film yet. I think Denard is going to be challenged right from the start. I don't believe the kid as the composure to withstand this mental confusion that VT will impose on him. He'll start forcing the ball... a few INT's... this game could very well get out of hand. Not only I believe VT will win double digits... I'm thinking around the 17-20 point mark. I think the OVER is a possibility from all the early turnovers. Michigan's defense won't be able to stop VT's offense. Michigan's bread and butter wasn't built to take on a team like VT. They are overly matched in every category. The vegas line of Michigan -2.5 shows this. It hasn't moved.

I'm taking Virginia Tech ML for around (risking) $2,500 It's a solid play. Possibly more? It's a great game to spring your bankroll... worry free. I don't think I'm going to even have to sweat this one out. You can screw with the OVER if you want?!?!?! But VT should win... easily...

Final score predictions: Virginia Tech 34 Michigan 17

[bobby heenan]

i like the play...i was already on it...+3.....well see.....hope mr thomas has a big game

[onetrickpony]

id rather take the over, line is screaming take mich and be a square and get buried

ive seen all of vt's games and they should be +7 or higher which has me worried that books know something i dont

[TheMoneyShot]

Lets do this gang!

Who's with me on the Beamer train??? ALL ABOARD!!!!!

[Deuce]

Give Beamer a month to prepare and watch out. Guy is good.

[blackbeSSt]

Let's face it... I live in Michigan... I love the atmosphere at the Big House. Hell... I love Denard Robinson. Who would I thought the Big 10... would have a dynamic QB who is versatile like DR? He's amazing to watch! But... with every positive... why not look at the negatives? Here is why Michigan shouldn't be ranked 13th in the nation. 1. They had the weakest schedule. Is it just my opinion? Or is it on paper? 2. They had the most home games. Yes, they went 8-0. Easy to play anyone when you have 110,000+ fans supporting you. 3. Michigan's D hasn't been challenged. Haven't faced a speed team like VT. Hasn't faced an ACC team. 4. True Test for Michigan's leader Denard Robinson... Does he have the leadership in a BIG GAME like this? Here's what I think will happen... Virginia Tech will force Robinson to pass. We all know he isn't the most accurate QB in college football. Yes, his speed opens up passing lanes and his ability to scramble. Frank Beamer's game plan? That's easy... there will be a spy on Denard almost every single down. Beamer will force him to prove his accuracy to the world. I expect many multiple blitz packages every 2 to 3 downs. I expect defensive formations and schemes VT hasn't showed on film yet. I think Denard is going to be challenged right from the start. I don't believe the kid as the composure to withstand this mental confusion that VT will impose on him. He'll start forcing the ball... a few INT's... this game could very well get out of hand. Not only I believe VT will win double digits... I'm thinking around the 17-20 point mark. I think the OVER is a possibility from all the early turnovers. Michigan's defense won't be able to stop VT's offense. Michigan's bread and butter wasn't built to take on a team like VT. They are overly matched in every category. The vegas line of Michigan -2.5 shows this. It hasn't moved. I'm taking Virginia Tech ML for around (risking) $2,500 It's a solid play. Possibly more? It's a great game to spring your bankroll... worry free. I don't think I'm going to even have to sweat this one out. You can screw with the OVER if you want?!?!?! But VT should win... easily... Final score predictions: Virginia Tech 34 Michigan 17

VT didn't line up a lot of powerhouses either. app st, ecu, marshall, ark. st

[firehoyt]

Beamer has bad luck with big games.

[Emily_Haines]

why not just take over?

nobody plays defense anymore

[tokio]

All DR does is run. Watched some of the games this year and that is mostly what I saw. If VT can force him to throw then it will be a long day for him.

[thebestthereis]

v.tech ranked higher and +3, wow easy money there without question. good luck!

[TheMoneyShot]

Give Beamer a month to prepare and watch out. Guy is good.

Deuce... that's exactly what I'm thinking. I just have this weird vibe that Beamer and his troops will be ready and Robinson won't be mentally focused for this game. Lets face it... Michigan is worthless if you shut Robinson down. How will they adapt? Michigan is so one dimensional.

VT didn't line up a lot of powerhouses either. app st, ecu, marshall, ark. st

Good point... not saying anything wrong with it. Don't know what VT was thinking?

Beamer has bad luck with big games.

I know what you're saying... but to me... it's easy to plan to face Michigan's offense. I mean... Michigan to me will need all the luck in the world.

All DR does is run. Watched some of the games this year and that is mostly what I saw. If VT can force him to throw then it will be a long day for him.

Exactly. If Beamer's ready.... VT will play lights out.

why not just take over? nobody plays defense anymore

Well... I was thinking the same thing but... what happens if VT totally shuts Michigan down? Michigan won't shut VT down. Depends on how conservative VT plays. I think they will play solid ball control. I'm expecting Michigan's offense to be totally out of rhythm.

Let Robinson prove me wrong... I'm begging him too. I don't think he has the mental capacity to overcome this pressure tonight. Easy to play 8 games in front of 110,000 fans supporting you... yes I know... the other stadium will be packed half way with Wolverine fans... but point is... different venue... different team. Goodnight Michigan. Sweet Dreams.

[flakeandbake]

Just because you think that VT will force Robinson to pass doesn't mean that it will happen and is not a valid reason to take VT. Robinson is a tremendous athlete that barely anyone could stop all year. I believe that Michigan favors the squares so it could be a huge trap with 73% on them (Vegas Insider). I really like the over of this game and believe it will shift to 52/52.5 the time the kickoff comes around (80% on over). I think it will go over and the line movement will get some last minute bettors to take the under. These teams have good defenses (Michigan #6 defense- allowing 17.2 points a game.. VT #7 defense- allowing 17.5 points a game). However, there offenses average around 30 points a game. Lets keep in mind this is the Sugar Bowl and was set up to be entertaining for the public. Therefore, I believe the score will be around 20-20 at halftime followed by a low scoring second half.. I have VT winning 34-31.

3 units on the over of 51.
Also considering a 3 unit play with an 11 point tease.. taking the over in this game, VT +14, and adding a college basketball game.

BOL to all!!!

[No coincidences]

The vegas line of Michigan -2.5 shows this. It hasn't moved.

Correction: VT actually opened as a fave at 5Dimes, then Michigan got pounded. A move from +1 to -2.5 is pretty significant.

[pacocn]

Does VT have a healthy field goal kicker for this one?

[flakeandbake]

^ Good question b/c I know there starting kicker got arrested and suspended for breaking and entering

[No coincidences]

^ Good question b/c I know there starting kicker got arrested and suspended for breaking and entering

Saw that -- wonder if their backup is any good.

[Serbone]

How about the Big 10?
They have done poorly ATS; buncha slow northern guys.
Yesterday was a disaster, Georgia f*cked it up 5 different ways in the 4th qtr and the OT's, or Big 10 would have gone 0-5.
ACC has covered, a few times, though not impressive. Fla State, Wake covered... GT got nipped late, VA got pounded, fair and square, North Carolina I dont count, they were a mess... lame duck coach was pissed that he didnt get the job.
Michigan is a big "public" team, -3, ran up scores against a lot of weaklings, everyone wants Denard Robinson on their side, there was very little "O" in the Big 10... so their "D" is overrated... the line should be VT -3.
Better QB, to boot.

[flakeandbake]

College field goal kickers blow anyway... Georgia's kicker cost me biggggg yesterday #fuckthatguy

[flakeandbake]

Follow me on Boofthebook.com had a hot streak going and hit a wall but look forward to bouncing back

[Madison]

I believe their 1st AND 2nd string kickers are out. Holding auditions as we speak.

[TheMoneyShot]

30 days since this game was announced... and VT couldn't find a kicker??? Come on

[TheMoneyShot]

Correction: VT actually opened as a fave at 5Dimes, then Michigan got pounded. A move from +1 to -2.5 is pretty significant.

I go by what vegas says... Looks like the lined opened up at Michigan -1.5 which I love by the way!!! nice solid starting line to go the opposite way! No way VT loses this game. Way too much Money on Michigan. Vegas ain't paying out tonight with only one bowl game to choose from... No f'ing way. Just my two cents.

[milwaukee mike]

michigan is the better team, their 2 losses were closer and their big wins look better (notre dame, nebraska, ohio st) than vt's (miami, at wake, at georgia tech)

i went against the big 10 yesterday in every game except penn st, but i think this matchup favors michigan big time

good luck all

[TheMoneyShot]

GL Mike

[milwaukee mike]

how you doing so far bowl season moneyshot?

i was on fire yesterday except for the first game and the last (had stanford ml). stupid kicker for stanford can't make a 35 yarder

[The DiB]

Give Beamer a month to prepare and watch out. Guy is good.

Even though he is 8-10 in bowl games, and 2-5 in BCS games?

Virginia Tech got whacked twice by the only good team they've played all year. ACC is a terrible football conference, backed up by their 2-11 bowl record.

[beerman2619]

v.tech ranked higher and +3, wow easy money there without question. good luck!

Michigan ranked 13

Virginia tech ranked 17

[Pin Fish]

30 days since this game was announced... and VT couldn't find a kicker??? Come on

VTech's starting kicker Jounell out for the game after being arrested on a home invasion robbery last week ...his replacement Weiss gets sent home for missing 1AM bedcheck.......kickoff man Myer has tried 2 field goals this season miising both.........essentially they have taken away any chance of scoring field goals....

[kmarinouofm]

I go by what vegas says... Looks like the lined opened up at Michigan -1.5 which I love by the way!!! nice solid starting line to go the opposite way! No way VT loses this game. Way too much Money on Michigan. Vegas ain't paying out tonight with only one bowl game to choose from... No f'ing way. Just my two cents.

ML is a bigger concern to vegas in this game.. with roughly 50% of it being on Va Tech at odds of +130 or better for the moneyline.. (thats like saying 70% of the people are on the ML) which is a decent amount of risk.. then you have the roughly 35-40% on the Spread with Va tech +3 .

Vegas would much rather pay out people laying -150 to win 100.. and the 65% of people laying -110 at -3..

So .. you talk about vegas not wanting to pay out tonight... In order to do so... Vegas would need Michigan to win.. but not cover...

Just my two cents boss..

[NotJoshRay]

You can't "make Denard have to pass." He has just as much of a chance breaking a simple QB power for a big gainer as he does throwing a pass. Its the last game of the year and a statement looking forward to next year. Sure, Denard Robinson might declare for the draft since he is getting his homework from them now, but wouldn't that be more incentive for him to have a good game?

His leadership can't be questioned. Everything I've ever seen or heard about Michigan football right now is that he is their leader, and there's not alot of senior leadership so all these guy have grown at UM with each other.

I don't know how much a month really does to help prepare you for a situation where you finally get to see how fast he is. You can scout team him, but until you see him on the field you won't know. And their diverse fakes to passes offense is pretty spur of the moment testing to a defense that has never seen it.

Michigan's problem arise in games like MSU where Denard throws alot of big picks. So why not just go with the over? Its either a high offense game, or Denard turns the ball over alot, but either way doesn't it mean points get scored?

All these people touting UM's defense are out of their mind. Needless to say, I'm a UM fan. Its pathetic how bad we are and how lucky we get with turnovers. In a dome. I think this goes over.

[sooner13]

Some of the logic on here is mind numbing. Does it really matter if U of M ran up a score on a weak team? Does it matter what the rest of the conference does in their bowl games? I think the matchups between VT and U of M are the only thing relevent in this game. VT has problems with mobile QB's, and has the weaker run D which is Michigan's strength.
If you want to look at the season, let's look at where the numbers have landed for each team ATS. Michigan 8-4 ATS and VT 4-9, so it's safe to say that if one was betting "the public team" all year they would have been right 66% of the time which is pretty solid. Or you could make a case for Vegas maybe not having a handle on just where to put the number when it comes to Michigan spreads. Either way, don't 'listen' to Vegas, read the numbers that tell you if a team has the stronger D, has the better run game, better ATS, you should probably lean that way. Just my .02 Goodluck to you all. Mich 27 VT 21

[TheProdigy8199]

I'm going with the opposite of whatever Lang picks...thats my logic

[Overbettor]

Who is this lang and where do I find him? Ive yet to run across any of his plays

[No coincidences]

I go by what vegas says... Looks like the lined opened up at Michigan -1.5 which I love by the way!!! nice solid starting line to go the opposite way! No way VT loses this game. Way too much Money on Michigan. Vegas ain't paying out tonight with only one bowl game to choose from... No f'ing way. Just my two cents.

<table id="ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ecece4"><td class="smtext2" width="40%">5Dimes.com</td> <td class="datahl2c" align="center" width="30%">Odds (Line)</td> <td class="datahl2c" align="center" width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/04/11 9:27:42 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-1.5/-110 (Open)</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/04/11 9:37:42 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-1/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/04/11 10:07:42 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">0/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/05/11 2:57:42 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">1/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/05/11 8:07:42 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">1.5/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">12/05/11 12:57:42 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">2/-110</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td></tr></tbody></table>
Virginia Tech actually opened at -1.5 at 5Dimes.

[Patrickz0rs]

Can someone explain why Michigan State played for the Big 10 Conference Championship and DID NOT get the BCS bid? Instead it's Michigan.