Celtics, Lakers, Cavs are struggling ATS

diogee · 03-19-09, 05:09 AM

That is why the spread is in place...so everyone can't just bet the best teams every time and win. I love betting on crap teams as much as I do the good ones. Just hoping Cavs go to -10.

ijustwant2bpaid · 03-19-09, 05:12 AM

Today was a foolish day for Boston, I think this is why 81% of the money was on biston though, what are the odds of aways betting with or against the public for a given time period, anyone?

fearless · 03-19-09, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by diogee

That is why the spread is in place...so everyone can't just bet the best teams every time and win. I love betting on crap teams as much as I do the good ones. Just hoping Cavs go to -10.

I have trouble betting on bad teams, they screw me way too often. Whether you're betting on bad teams or good teams I guess the old saying is always true, "Timing is everything." That's why Tsoprano is struggling right now, it's a bad time for the Celtics.

diogee · 03-19-09, 05:21 AM

Originally posted by fearless

I have trouble betting on bad teams, they screw me way too often. Whether you're betting on bad teams or good teams I guess the old saying is always true, "Timing is everything." That's why Tsoprano is struggling right now, it's a bad time for the Celtics.

Bad teams are often undervalued against better teams imo...call it public perception or what you will. My 4 biggest bets of the nfl season were on some of the worst teams (Lions (twice), Chiefs, and Packers). If you are excluding teams then you are missing out on value. The name of the game is beating the closing market...also when only betting on the best teams you are often on the heavy public faves. I feel books often overvalue these teams knowing the public will still be all over them...just can't overvalue them too much due to sharp money undercutting them thus causing a line move against the public. Then again I don't exclude the good teams and won't be swayed on a bet just because it will be a public fave since the public wins sometimes as well.

diogee · 03-19-09, 05:30 AM

Top 10 ats trenders:

1 Orlando 44-23-1
2 Cleveland 42-25-0
3 Oklahoma City 41-25-1
4 Charlotte 40-28-0
5 New York 38-28-1
6 Atlanta 38-30-0
7 Indiana 36-31-2
8 Denver 36-32-1
9 Milwaukee 36-32-2
10 Chicago 36-32-1

Couple of high public teams in there but also a good bit that are not even close to public darlings. Wouldn't suggest blindly betting on any of those teams either since you could expect some regression among the top of the list.

fearless · 03-19-09, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by diogee

Top 10 ats trenders:

1 Orlando 44-23-1
2 Cleveland 42-25-0
3 Oklahoma City 41-25-1
4 Charlotte 40-28-0
5 New York 38-28-1
6 Atlanta 38-30-0
7 Indiana 36-31-2
8 Denver 36-32-1
9 Milwaukee 36-32-2
10 Chicago 36-32-1

Couple of high public teams in there but also a good bit that are not even close to public darlings. Wouldn't suggest blindly betting on any of those teams either since you could expect some regression among the top of the list.

Excellent points. Let's remember one thing though, all of those teams outside of Oklahoma City have been in the playoff hunt. That means a lot. I'm going to start adding these records to my handicapping.

Where did you get those numbers diogee?

diogee · 03-19-09, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by fearless

Excellent points. Let's remember one thing though, all of those teams outside of Oklahoma City have been in the playoff hunt. That means a lot. I'm going to start adding these records to my handicapping.

Where did you get those numbers diogee?

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/statistics/2008-2009/statistics_regular.html&t=0

Also if you click on Trends it shows the yearly totals on home/away ats and su of dogs and faves as well as o/u.

Being in the playoff hunt is big for these teams but that also leads to higher lines with less value. Good luck today fearless...think my senseless sleep deprived mumbling is done for the night.

fearless · 03-19-09, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by diogee

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/statistics/2008-2009/statistics_regular.html&t=0

Also if you click on Trends it shows the yearly totals on home/away ats and su of dogs and faves as well as o/u.

Being in the playoff hunt is big for these teams but that also leads to higher lines with less value. Good luck today fearless...think my senseless sleep deprived mumbling is done for the night.

Thanks, good luck to you.