Soccer guys explain this bet to me

[theballsflop]

At sites like 365... theres usually a disparity between the ML market and the Asian Handicap -0.5 market. For the Holland vs Spain match, Holland ML was 5.75 but the Asian Handicap -0.5 for Holland was 5.00.

Thats a huge difference in value right there.

[yahoonino]

Pk is different. Tie means money back. The other is ml, so only win if team wins. Lose if it is tie or they lose game

I was thinking the same way I was comfuse why anybody take the pick +110 money line +190 I took Italy +195 instead of Italy pick _125 thank you for clear that up

[daneblazer]

I put a measly $10 on each game and actually enjoyed watching them yesterday. Costa Rica kicked my ass but still...Gotta start somewhere

Maybe I have to find a soccer league to watch

[Martinr]

At sites like 365... theres usually a disparity between the ML market and the Asian Handicap -0.5 market. For the Holland vs Spain match, Holland ML was 5.75 but the Asian Handicap -0.5 for Holland was 5.00.

Thats a huge difference in value right there.

This is a good example.
B365 cater for the "recreational" punter, and their main market is in the UK. UK soccer players love their accumulators/parlays, and these players tend to look for short favourites in the 3 way Win/Draw/Win markets to add to their parlays. By making Spain a shorter favourite than they deserve to be the bookmaker attracts the parlay bettors, who are duped into thinking that The Netherlands have next to no chance. I'm pretty sure that a lot of parlays would have gone down with Spain.
The AH market proved the better guide.
When you think about it, the difference between odds of 5.00 and 5.70 is just 2.5% in implied probability, but when flat betting that makes a big difference to the bankroll.

[miaplus3]

Martinr...Thank you for the responses....interesting. Let me ask you if you were to consider two matches as follows:

On is Columbia minus0.5 @ -118 on the Asian with the 3 way win @ -115, and the other match is Japan minus0.5 @+120 on the Asian with the 3 way win @ +110.

So in above examples which side would be more live to you, one that has favorite with better virtual odds on three way as in Columbia or one in which the better virtual odds exist on the Asian as with Japan.
The question does not take into account line movement, just raw first blush impressions of Asian vs 3 way line on the same game.

Thanks.

[Martinr]

Martinr...Thank you for the responses....interesting. Let me ask you if you were to consider two matches as follows:

On is Columbia minus0.5 @ -118 on the Asian with the 3 way win @ -115, and the other match is Japan minus0.5 @+120 on the Asian with the 3 way win @ +110.

So in above examples which side would be more live to you, one that has favorite with better virtual odds on three way as in Columbia or one in which the better virtual odds exist on the Asian as with Japan.
The question does not take into account line movement, just raw first blush impressions of Asian vs 3 way line on the same game.

Thanks.

It's important to remember that each market is independent of the other. So a book might move the AH line after accepting a large wager on that market, but leave the W/D/W market alone if he still needs to balance that book.
An example just occurred on the Germany/Portugal game.
B365 moved the AH line 0.25 goals. So from -0.0, -0.5 @ 1.80 to -0.5 @ 2.075. The limit is to win 30K.
They left the W/D/W market alone @ 2.10/3.60/3.75. Also with a 30K win limit (apologies for the decimal odds)
So they have accepted a wager large enough to move the line on their AH book, but can still handle some action on Germany on the W/D/W book. The price on Germany won't necessarily change on this market unless some big bets are placed on them to win, regardless of what happens in the AH market.

A bookmaker this big can operate the two books independently and balance each one as necessary.
I've noticed that at this Tournament B365 have both books framed at around 102%, with identical win limits. This isn't usually the case with smaller soccer leagues.

[Martinr]

That W/D/W line has now moved to 2.00/3.60/4.00. That move from 2.10 into 2.00 is a 2.4% difference in implied probability. Pinny's line moved from 2.13 into 2.01, which represents a difference of 2.81% in implied probability. It's a probably a pretty significant move, and traders on the exchanges (Betfair, Matchbook) are doing well.
The early moves on the big games can be worth watching out for. Pinnacle insist that anyone who beats their closing lines in soccer will have a telling edge.