*****World Cup Betting Guide*****

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  • alamo
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-21-09
    • 7131

    #71
    sick beat.
    Comment
    • MakePwithMe
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-06-14
      • 547

      #72
      Yup, not getting carried away bad beat take it on the chin and move on.

      Les Bleu! Lets do this!
      Comment
      • kremdekrem
        SBR Rookie
        • 06-14-14
        • 6

        #73
        so close.....damn!
        Still no draws in this tourney.

        Let's go France!!!
        Comment
        • juanego
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-03-10
          • 196

          #74
          Tough last 20 sec! Great analysis, Here we go Les Blue!
          Comment
          • kremdekrem
            SBR Rookie
            • 06-14-14
            • 6

            #75
            Thank you Honduran defender. Blatantly, obvious foul.
            Benzema scores and a red card to give France more opportunities.
            1 bet won. Flood gates are gonna open in the Honduran net now.
            Comment
            • Jakenv21
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-01-12
              • 374

              #76
              Awesome stuff man. I've been picking and choosing my picks based off yours. 5-1 so far and about to be 6-1 with my France wager of -1.5. Will probably pull the trigger on Bosnia as my ancestors are from there. Taking the over in that game as well. BOL to all of your picks
              Comment
              • MakePwithMe
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-06-14
                • 547

                #77
                Thanks guys, appreciate the warm reception.

                20 seconds away from 6-0 for today

                Still can't get over the first game, already had the dollar signs for the draw.
                Comment
                • Jakenv21
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-01-12
                  • 374

                  #78
                  Tough tough beat man. How strong is your feeling on Bosnia +1.5 My friend has already bet Argentina -350 and I've been having an argument with him
                  Comment
                  • Dfjay9
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-04-08
                    • 1576

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Jakenv21
                    Tough tough beat man. How strong is your feeling on Bosnia +1.5 My friend has already bet Argentina -350 and I've been having an argument with him
                    1) Your friend got a shit line at -350
                    2) Why ever lay that much juice?
                    Comment
                    • Jakenv21
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-01-12
                      • 374

                      #80
                      Originally posted by Dfjay9
                      1) Your friend got a shit line at -350
                      2) Why ever lay that much juice?
                      I would never do it either. I'm looking for value plays as in my play of France -1.5 instead of -400. I see some value in Bosnia +1.5 and the over 2.5. Only way I get totally screwed is if Argentina wins 2-0
                      Comment
                      • MakePwithMe
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-06-14
                        • 547

                        #81
                        Originally posted by Jakenv21
                        Tough tough beat man. How strong is your feeling on Bosnia +1.5 My friend has already bet Argentina -350 and I've been having an argument with him
                        Well its 2U standard play for me, I like the dead ball technical players of Bosnia, I match this up with Argentina struggling to defend set pieces, Pjanic, Salihovic (even though hes not starting) strike the ball perfect and with the strong Bosnian defenders along with Dzeko & Ibisevic whos on the bench they can be very dangerous especially on the counter, the way they have lined up it should be parking the bus absorbing the attack then going on the counter similar to Athletico Madrid, I like them to score the edge is with Bosnia my opinion, Argentina being Argentina you either hate them or love them can either blow them away or flop completely.

                        -133 for +1.5 is value in my eyes.

                        BOL

                        See you after the game chaps.
                        Comment
                        • Dfjay9
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-04-08
                          • 1576

                          #82
                          I do think there is value in Arg HT/Arg FT at -110. Maybe put .75u there and .25 on Draw/Arg FT at +345 if you want to bet Argentina for cheaper.
                          Comment
                          • Jakenv21
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-01-12
                            • 374

                            #83
                            Shit my book has the over 2.5 at -200 I dont know if I can take it at that juice
                            Comment
                            • Jakenv21
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-01-12
                              • 374

                              #84
                              Now at 3 with -120 juice
                              Comment
                              • Dfjay9
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-04-08
                                • 1576

                                #85
                                Originally posted by Jakenv21
                                Shit my book has the over 2.5 at -200 I dont know if I can take it at that juice
                                Thats absolutely terrible. Get a new book.
                                Comment
                                • Jakenv21
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-01-12
                                  • 374

                                  #86
                                  @Dfjay9

                                  I have a local who uses Bovada's lines
                                  Comment
                                  • Dfjay9
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-04-08
                                    • 1576

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by Jakenv21
                                    @Dfjay9

                                    I have a local who uses Bovada's lines
                                    Sign up for a 5dimes acct. Solid lines across the board typically.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jakenv21
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-01-12
                                      • 374

                                      #88
                                      I've heard good things about 5 dimes I just like dealing with locals more than funding an account.
                                      Comment
                                      • jed81
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 07-08-09
                                        • 341

                                        #89
                                        I been Riding with you Keep up the Great Capping !!! And thanks for sharing your hard work !!! the book
                                        Comment
                                        • MakePwithMe
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 04-06-14
                                          • 547

                                          #90
                                          6/15

                                          Switzerland vs Ecuador:-
                                          Full Time Result (Draw) +210 Wager 2U LOSE
                                          Under 2.5 Goals -175 Wager to Win 1U LOSE

                                          France vs Honduras:-
                                          Full Time Result (France) -300 Wager to Win 2U *Going beyond max bet limit 5U WIN
                                          Asian Handicap (France -1.5) +105 Wager 2U WIN
                                          Over 2.5 Goals +105 Wager 1U WIN
                                          Goalscorer Anytime (Karim Benzema) -110 Wager to Win 1U WIN

                                          Argentina vs Bosnia-Herzegovina:-
                                          Asian Handicap (Bosnia-Herzegovina +1.5) -133 Wager to Win 2U WIN
                                          Over 2.5 Goals -138 Wager to Win 1U WIN

                                          = +5.40U

                                          WC REC:-
                                          24W-9L-0P +25.74U 73%

                                          20 seconds away from going 8-0 today, I know I've already mentioned this bad beat but would of loved to hit that draw because I felt I had a certain grip on how this competition will pan out. With that being said no draws yet the competition is still widely unpredictable 3-0 overs again today glad I took the over for the last two neglected my system of not taking the overs for the Swiss cheese but nearly had the under there.

                                          Ecuador defenders were a little suspect at the end there, congrats any tailers will post tomorrows card soon.

                                          BOL
                                          Comment
                                          • Fox-hound86
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 06-15-14
                                            • 4

                                            #91
                                            tomorrows predictions. Lets go.. I'm all ears.
                                            Comment
                                            • kremdekrem
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 06-14-14
                                              • 6

                                              #92
                                              Congrats to you. Unfortunately I couldn't get the over 2.5 at a decent price, so I had to take over 3, which resulted in a push. That's ok with me since I still won the Bosnia-Herzegovina +1.5, thanks again to you.
                                              I'm a HUGE Germany fan so I am looking forward to your predictions for tomorrow's games.

                                              Cheers
                                              Comment
                                              • alamo
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-21-09
                                                • 7131

                                                #93
                                                Whilst the Swiss game was a bad beat actually a really really bad beat I feel we got some redemption with that Bosnian goal with 4' to go. That was a big 6.5x swing in the roll. Keep up the good work dude !
                                                Comment
                                                • MakePwithMe
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 04-06-14
                                                  • 547

                                                  #94
                                                  fox, krem, alamo

                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jakenv21
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-01-12
                                                    • 374

                                                    #95
                                                    Yea i pushed on the over 3 as well. Great thread. looking forward to tomorrow. Thanks OP
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MakePwithMe
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 04-06-14
                                                      • 547

                                                      #96
                                                      6/15

                                                      Germany vs Portugal:-

                                                      Full Time Result (Germany) +110 Wager 2U
                                                      Goalscorer Anytime (Thomas Muller) +163 Wager 1U

                                                      Iran vs Nigeria:-
                                                      Full Time Result (Nigeria) +110 Wager 2U
                                                      Under 2.5 Goals -150 Wager to Win 1U

                                                      Ghana vs USA:-
                                                      Full Time Result (Draw) +220 Wager 2U

                                                      Analysis:-
                                                      Nigeria should wrap this match up with a win, Iran will try to slow things down men behind the ball with zero creativity, all in all Nigeria have the right blend offensively to win this match up.

                                                      Germany are a lot better than Portugal regardless what the line indicates, Ronaldo has fitness doubts...from goalkeeper to defense to attack Germans outnumber the Portuguese in terms of squad strength, Portugals defense will let a few goals in if the Germans turn up.

                                                      Have no idea which side has the edge in the last game of the day, both defenses are good Ghana have the better attacking line up...but the Americans know how important it is to get a result against the former quarter finalists so I expect them to be physical and nick one on the counter and grind out the draw, there has to be a draw here.

                                                      BOL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Joe Sharp
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-01-09
                                                        • 3011

                                                        #97
                                                        I'm hoping that Germany underestimate Portugal as much as you do! Good luck. I'm on the others.

                                                        Cheers.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • kremdekrem
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 06-14-14
                                                          • 6

                                                          #98
                                                          I'm curious why you didn't bet the Germany/Portugal game over. Based on your analysis, it seems like it should go over. Can you explain your reasoning as to why you didn't?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MakePwithMe
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 04-06-14
                                                            • 547

                                                            #99
                                                            jak, bill, joe
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MakePwithMe
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 04-06-14
                                                              • 547

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by kremdekrem
                                                              I'm curious why you didn't bet the Germany/Portugal game over. Based on your analysis, it seems like it should go over. Can you explain your reasoning as to why you didn't?
                                                              Sure.

                                                              I don't have confidence in Portugal scoring, Ronaldo is recovering/recovered from injury who else is there? Besides Portugal need the ball to score & Germans are one of the few sides who can dictate how long they want to keep the ball.

                                                              Germany only took 2 strikers, Klose is old has the legs...Volland is unproven unlike Benzema for France or RVP for Holland I see 2-0 Germany, I see them having many chances but not taking them as much Muller will score Germany will win over 2.5 goals? Maybe Portugal can score but this may be silly but I have this inner feeling that we could see a under I don't really care aslong as Germany take care of Ronaldo & co and Muller bags one.

                                                              BOL
                                                              Comment
                                                              • korki
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 09-23-12
                                                                • 171

                                                                #101
                                                                Nice thread, SIRR ,agree today Germany
                                                                Comment
                                                                • kremdekrem
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 06-14-14
                                                                  • 6

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Hard to argue with your answer. You've convinced me. However, I bet the over before I saw your reply. Line was dropping so I jumped on it. Hope your mistaken but considering your track record, I'm not holding too much hope.



                                                                  Thanks again for the thorough explanation,



                                                                  Go Germany!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • true blue 26
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 12-07-11
                                                                    • 180

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Do u think its worth putting some on Germany to win by 1 exactly? before i saw ur post i had a 1-0 2-1 type of game in my mind
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • dirtycash66
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-13-12
                                                                      • 2958

                                                                      #104
                                                                      with you on nigeria
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • dj91693
                                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                                        • 06-16-14
                                                                        • 1

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Should I hedge on draw with ghana bet with pk -138 ghana ?
                                                                        Comment
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