Congratulations to the poster "fearless" for winning the contest..

[Nicky Santoro]

you were the 24th post and therefore, you win the free chance at 250$ now..

here are the rules.

you have to hit a 4 team parlay.. ONLY sides and totals.. NBA, and NCAAB only..NO moneylines. we go by Pinny's closing lines.. you have 1 week to complete the 4 teamer.. you can put all your 4 picks at once, or even 1 at a a time.. if one of the games is a push, you can pick another game.

remember, we go by pinny closing line no matter what..

good luck fearless and try not to win this, ok?

oh, and post it here in this thread..


congratulations once again..

[fearless]

These rules are GREAT! I was worried I'd have to pick all the games today and I don't really like any of the games today.

Picks will be forthcoming. This is gonna be fun.

Thanks Nicky!

[fearless]

Are team totals ok?

[fearless]

Nicky, I need an answer. Can I use team totals for this?

[reno cool]

You guys are getting a lot mileage out of this 12 bucks.

[MonkeyF0cker]

These rules are GREAT! I was worried I'd have to pick all the games today and I don't really like any of the games today.

Picks will be forthcoming. This is gonna be fun.

Thanks Nicky!

The rules aren't that great. You have a 6.25% chance of hitting it against Pinny closers. He's really doing everything he can to make sure you don't win. Gotta love how he suddenly slips in that stipulation... Cheap bastard.

Conversely, you'd have about a 1-2.5% better chance of winning if he let you beat the closer.

[fearless]

The rules aren't that great. You have a 6.25% chance of hitting it against Pinny closers. He's really doing everything he can to make sure you don't win. Gotta love how he suddenly slips in that stipulation... Cheap bastard.

Conversely, you'd have about a 1-2.5% better chance of winning if he let you beat the closer.

He gave me a week to pick the games. I think the rules are great.

[reno cool]

It'd be funny if it hit. Is he going to book the bet or lay it off?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, if you don't understand the difference fearless, he could give you six years to make the picks and it wouldn't really matter.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It'd be funny if it hit. Is he going to book the bet or lay it off?

I'd guess he'll book it with those rules...

[pico]

It'd be funny if it hit. Is he going to book the bet or lay it off?

i think nicky is tailing the parlay to recover his bankroll

[fearless]

Well, if you don't understand the difference fearless, he could give you six years to make the picks and it wouldn't really matter.

Closing Pinnacle numbers are mostly based on the market (that's the public's opinion) and if you don't realize that the public is usually wrong in sports betting, I don't know were your head is.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You and Nicky make a perfect couple.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Now I really hope he hits it...

[reno cool]

Closing Pinnacle numbers are mostly based on the market (that's the public's opinion) and if you don't realize that the public is usually wrong in sports betting, I don't know were your head is.

If this was true Pinnacle would long since been busted. However, I don't want to talk down to what you guys are doing. If it brings you some excitement then great.

[pico]

fearless is on a hot streak. i won't be surprised if it hits

[fearless]

fearless is on a hot streak. i won't be surprised if it hits

It's no hot streak. My performance recently has been normal for me. That Heat over was a fluke of course.

[reno cool]

Kind of reminds me of the free spin you can take walking into 4queens Monkey. Some people love it.

[fearless]

If this was true Pinnacle would long since been busted. However, I don't want to talk down to what you guys are doing. If it brings you some excitement then great.

Maybe I'm confused about how pinnacle works. Please explain you're saying.

[fearless]

Kind of reminds me of the free spin you can take walking into 4queens Monkey. Some people love it.

Why don't people think I can do this? I just went 4-0 recently:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/153911-4-0-27-5-points-today.html

[reno cool]

Why don't people think I can do this? I just went 4-0 recently:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...nts-today.html

sure you can, but the value of your free play is only about $15. You're getting $250 if you win, not a $250 bet if I'm understanding correctly.

[reno cool]

Maybe I'm confused about how pinnacle works. Please explain what you're saying.

Pinnacle offers low juice and take large bets. If their lines were weak they would get killed by pros. They're lines cannot be based on square public perception.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Kind of reminds me of the free spin you can take walking into 4queens Monkey. Some people love it.

Haha. Yeah, it does.

[fearless]

Pinnacle offers low juice and take large bets. If their lines were weak they would get killed by pros. They're lines cannot be based on square public perception.

I didn't understand then. Let's look at what's happening right now. The Nuggets are -6 -118. I thought Pinnacle is offering that line because the public is pushing it there. In other words, don't they start with a line of Nuggets -6 -105 (in most cases) then let their customers decide which way the line and juice will go?

I typed the above and I checked the actual line movement and it looks like I'm probably right:

03/17 03:38PM: -5½ -112 / +5½ +102
03/17 06:59PM: -6 -113 / +6 +103
03/18 01:26AM: -6 -118 / +6 +108

Did I not describe correctly how Pinnacle works?

If so, my assertion that closing Pinnacle numbers are mostly based on the market is correct.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Why don't people think I can do this? I just went 4-0 recently:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...nts-today.html

Nobody's saying you can't. You can. You have a 6.25% chance of doing so...

[MonkeyF0cker]

I didn't understand then. Let's look at what's happening right now. The Nuggets are -6 -118. I thought Pinnacle is offering that line because the public is pushing it there. In other words, don't they start with a line of Nuggets -6 -105 (in most cases) then let their customers decide which way the line and juice will go?

I typed the above and I checked the actual line movement and it looks like I'm probably right:

03/17 03:38PM: -5½ -112 / +5½ +102
03/17 06:59PM: -6 -113 / +6 +103
03/18 01:26AM: -6 -118 / +6 +108

Did I not describe correctly how Pinnacle works?

If so, my assertion that closing Pinnacle numbers are mostly based on the market is correct.

Yes, the closer is determined by an efficient market where it is assumed that the probability of hitting ATS on either side of that number has an equal chance of hitting. In other words, a 50% chance. In your example, if that game closes at -6 but you were able to bet it at -5.5, you would have an edge.

[Nicky Santoro]

fearless, if it makes you feel better, you can play the game at the time that line is available. you dont have to play pinny closers if it makes you feel better. i only said this for sake of any arguments.

so if you see BOS -7.5 and you play it at 1 pm, write down bos -7.5, but if it closes at Bos -6, you still get it at Bos-7.5..

don't listen to that fool monkefag, he's just jealous, as always..there's no difference for you if you play closers or current line, as games will move in every direction with you.. this can hurt you, or it can benefit you.

and no team totals, just sides and totals as said. good luck and post plays in this thread.. good luck.

[fearless]

fearless, if it makes you feel better, you can play the game at the time that line is available. you dont have to play pinny closers if it makes you feel better. i only said this for sake of any arguments.

so if you see BOS -7.5 and you play it at 1 pm, write down bos -7.5, but if it closes at Bos -6, you still get it at Bos-7.5..

don't listen to that fool monkefag, he's just jealous, as always..there's no difference for you if you play closers or current line, as games will move in every direction with you.. this can hurt you, or it can benefit you.

and no team totals, just sides and totals as said. good luck and post plays in this thread.. good luck.

Thanks a lot. I'm still waiting for a play I'm really confident about.

I have to finish this by March 24th right?

[Nicky Santoro]

Thanks a lot. I'm still waiting for a play I'm really confident about.

I have to finish this by March 24th right?

i figured 7 days to put in 4 bets would not take you more than a week.. the avg person bets 15 games a day here at sbr, that's 105 a week, and you can't find me 4 a week? lol

np, you can take till end of march, i dont care.. but them in this thread with the current line of pinny ONLY. and whatever line it was when you posted pick is the line you will get.

trust me, don't listen to these losers.. you have no adv over betting current or pinny closers. half will go your way, half will go other way.. if they had any clue, they'd know this.. good luck, fearler..

[fearless]

i figured 7 days to put in 4 bets would not take you more than a week.. the avg person bets 15 games a day here at sbr, that's 105 a week, and you can't find me 4 a week? lol

np, you can take till end of march, i dont care.. but them in this thread with the current line of pinny ONLY. and whatever line it was when you posted pick is the line you will get.

trust me, don't listen to these losers.. you have no adv over betting current or pinny closers. half will go your way, half will go other way.. if they had any clue, they'd know this.. good luck, fearler..

Rest of the month, fantastic! I'll take it, thanks!

[MonkeyF0cker]

trust me, don't listen to these losers.. you have no adv over betting current or pinny closers. half will go your way, half will go other way.. if they had any clue, they'd know this

Care to retract that statement? If not, you should put that in your signature because that's epic! You're a moron.

[donjuan]

Care to retract that statement? If not, you should put that in your signature because that's epic! You're a moron.

If he's saying Fearless has no advantage betting current Pinny numbers over betting closers, that's probably right. If he's saying no one does, then yeah, he's a moron.

[Nicky Santoro]

yes, you idiot, you want to challenge me on this one?? you will lose. a guy like fearler is not a pro gambler getting phone calls telling him to bet games because game is moving etc..

half his bets will go for him and half will go against him.. just like 98% of posters here, so betting current or closers for fearler makes zero difference over the long haul, and if you say i'm wrong here, then you are even more clueless than i thought, which wasn't possible in the 1st place.

and as for giving him a free 250$ or 15$, it's still something.. i'd like to see you give me a free 250$ to win parlay. you can smash me for this, meanwhile, it's more than you ever gave, mr ace rothshit..

jeeeesh, i give someone a free chance at $250 and you are there to mock me.. you too reno cool, you're in no position to say this.. i didn't have to do this and had nothing to gain and only can lose $250.

[Nicky Santoro]

donny, monkey might be the biggest idiot i have ever seen in my life.. he's always trying to show how smart he is and always correcting me, but he's always wrong.. LOL..

i shut him up fast on this one.. take a hike ace rothshit.. you will never be anywhere like me.. keep trying..

[donjuan]

meanwhile, it's more than you ever gave, mr ace rothshit..

Monkey has given much more than $15.63 of EV to the forum...