40 picks and 40 nights

jmathes · 03-06-09, 11:14 AM

That was a bad start for my 1st posted pick but tonight look for an easy win. I originally was leaning with Chicago -6 against Milwaukee since the Bulls are kicking ass as home but decided to mix it up a little. The Spurs play the Wizards at home whom they murdered by 31 points in Washington 2 weeks ago. I usually steer clear of big spreads but this is too easy to pass up. Look for the Spurs to run away with this one from the opening tip.

SAN ANTONIO -13.5 OVER WASHINGTON WIZARDS

OVERALL RECORD 0-1

fearless · 03-06-09, 11:16 AM

This song is fitting for this thread.

jmathes · 03-07-09, 10:52 AM

Got an easy win last night with the Spurts tearing up the Wizards and looking to make a nice streak . I like Missouri -2 over Texas A&M but there is alot riding on this game for the Aggies so I think I'll stay away. Not only that, A&M plays very well at home and has played even better lately. The next game I like is the Oklahoma Sooners beating up on Oklahoma State at home. The Sooners have struggled lately losing 3 of their last 4 but we all know that is due to Blake Griffin's concussion. Look for the Sooners to run away with this one early. Rivalry games are scary but OU really wants to prove that they deserve that #1 seed going into the tourney.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS -9 OVER OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

OVERALL RECORD 1-1

jmathes · 03-08-09, 10:50 AM

Another tough loss for yesterday on the Oklahoma Sooner game. Lets bounce back with 3 games today hopefully we can sweep on all 3. I like the Spurs -5 over the Suns. The Spurs are 21-8 at home playing against a fading Suns who have lost their last 3 games. Also go with the Spartans -5.5 over Purdue at home for the last time this year. We all know Michigan State plays well at home. Lastly, my strongest play for the day is gonna be the Boston Celtics -4 over the Orlando Magic. The Celtics have beaten the Magic in both meetings this year by double digits. The first time they beat them at home was 107-88 and the 2nd time was in Orlando 90-80. Even though Garnett is still out the Celtics will make this an easy winner just like they did to Cleveland a few nights ago winning by 11 points. The Celtics have alot to prove showing everyone why they are the defending champions!

MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 OVER PURDUE

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -5 OVER PHOENIX SUNS

BOSTON CELTICS -4 OVER ORLANDO MAGIC

OVERALL RECORD 1-2

jmathes · 03-09-09, 04:36 PM

RESULS FROM 3/8

MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 OVER PURDUE WIN

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -5 OVER PHOENIX SUNS PUSH

BOSTON CELTICS -4 OVER ORLANDO MAGIC LOSS

TODAY'S PICKS:

WASHINGTON +4 OVER MINNESOTA

HOUSTON +3.5 OVER DENVER

overall record 2-3-1

jmathes · 03-17-09, 12:09 PM

RESULS FROM 3/9

WASHINGTON +4 OVER MINNESOTA WIN

HOUSTON +3.5 OVER DENVER WIN

After taking a week off I am glad to see we have an easy card today. I should not have to give any explanation for this pick but I guess I will. They really screwed this one up last night when they released the line at 5.5. Did they really think UAB was going to make this a game vs. a solid Big East team pissed not to be playing in the tourney. Well, I know it is the NIT which we all know stands for 'Not In Tournament" but come on!! 96% of the people out there are betting on Notre Dame so why not jump on the bandwagon. I caught the line at 5.5 last night but even though its at 7 right now keep on keepin on. Hell I would probably jump on the spread if it were at 10 or 11. With that being said watch Notre Dame destroy the "U Aint Ballers" by 15 + points tonight. I look forward in changing my overall record to 5-3-1 so I'll see you here.

TODAY'S PICKS:

NOTRE DAME -5.5

overall record 4-3-1

jjgold · 03-17-09, 01:41 PM

This will not have a happy ending but good luck guy

SlickFazzer · 03-17-09, 01:42 PM

jmathes · 03-18-09, 10:50 AM

RESULS FROM 3/17

NOTRE DAME -5.5 WIN

I am going to go with 2 games on my card tonight. The 1st matchup I like is the Denver Nuggets -5.5 over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nuggets have already played the Grizzlies 2 times this year beating them by double digits both times. The Nugs have won their last 3 games by an average of 17 points and will continue this trend tonight. I was a little hesitant seeing that Denver ATS isn't the best on the road but either is Memphis at home. With that being said I liked the fact they took care of business the past 2 meetings against the Grizz.

My 2nd game on tap tonight is going with the OVER 145.5 in the Vermont vs. Wisconsic-Green Bay game. This is strictly a trend bet that will continue tonight as the two teams are a combined 20-0 going over in their last 20 games on the board. 16 of those were Green Bay and 4 were Vermont. Although the two teams haven't played a game in well over a week and may start a bit rusty, look for their offenses to pick up and score over 160 points in tonight's game.

TODAY'S PICKS:

DENVER NUGGETS -5.5 OVER MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

VERMONT & WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY OVER 145.5

overall record 5-3-1

jjgold · 03-18-09, 11:10 AM

Mather these picks make sense, I mightthrow some change on them GL Ace

jmathes · 03-19-09, 10:38 AM

RESULS FROM 3/18

DENVER NUGGETS -5.5 OVER MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES LOSS

VERMONT & WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY OVER 145.5 WIN

I don't know about you guys but I am getting pretty excited about the tourney today. I saw a weakness on the spreads a few days ago and have been drooling to let this one out. Gonzaga -12.5 over Akron. This line has moved quite a bit but still jump on because Gonzaga is being completely underrated for this game. I like a few other games as well but will stick to one game just because I want my percentage to be up there. A few other games I like today are UNC -25, Memphis -20, UCLA -8, & LSU -1.5. I have found that first round game blowouts are the best ones to bet on because alot of people don't bet on the big spreads. Historically the higher seeds usually destroy the lower seeds big in the opening round games especially #1 vs 16 seeds. To me betting on #8 vs 9 games is a coin toss unless you really see something there. For example, the BYU & Texas A&M game...Why bet on this game? Good luck

TODAY'S PICKs:

GONZAGA -12.5 OVER AKRON

overall record 6-4-1

jmathes · 03-19-09, 07:40 PM

RESULS FROM 3/19

GONZAGA -12.5 OVER AKRON WIN

Today I have an easy winner riding a very hot trend. Yesterday both #1 seeds blew out their opponents by an average of 49.5 points and this will continue today. Louisville is a #1 seed playing today which I like because last time they played Morehead State they beat them by close to 40 points. Hopefully both Pitt and Louisville easily cover their spreads today and make it 4-0 this year for top seeds ATS. Today is easy money all over the board. Keep your money on the Big East side of things because they are blowing by their opponents so far in this tourney. I also want to give mad props to Strictlywinners and his thread "Back From the Dead." This guy is about the hottest capper out there right now and if your not on board your watching money fly away. Anyone that can release 3-5 picks a day and remain well over 60% has mad skills. This guy is 27-15 (64%) and is just heating up with a few solid picks on board today.

TODAY'S PICK:

LOUISVILLE -20.5 OVER MOREHEAD STATE

overall record 7-4-1

jmathes · 03-21-09, 10:38 AM

RESULS FROM 3/20

LOUISVILLE -20.5 OVER MOREHEAD STATE LOSS

Wow losing by half a point always sucks! Oh well we will bounce back with a strong pick today. I like UConn -10 over Texas A&M but can't pick this because A&M is my school and that would just be wrong. I do like the Western Kentucky and Gonzaga game and feel this will be easy money. Western Kentucky made it to the Sweet 16 last year and is coming into this years tourney underrated once again. After knocking off Illinois in the 1st round why would you give Gonzaga 10.5 points against this team??

TODAY'S PICK:

WESTERN KENCUCKY +10.5 OVER GONZAGA

overall record 7-5-1

jmathes · 03-22-09, 10:57 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/21

WESTERN KENTUCKY +10.5 OVER GONZAGA WIN

I felt that today's card was one of the toughest to cap so far for the tourney. I checked the NBA, MLB, and even the Women's NCAA Tournament to find something. Speaking of that the UConn Women's opening line was +49 points over Vermont. It is obvious no one is on that game because the line is already down to 47 points within 15 minutes of posting. Back to the the real tourney, games that I like today are: Pitt -8 Oklahoma State, Louisville -11 over Siena, & why not UConn Women -47 over Vermont? This is going to be a home game for UConn but thats not saying much considering the whole state of Vermont will probably make that drive for this game. UConn is coming off a 40 point win over #3 Louisville and also blew out their first round opponent last year by 50 points. For God's sake, their coach tried to fight an opposing girl player earlier this year. Yes, Geno Auriemma is a man and he has alot to prove!!

I am going take Syracuse for today because after watching them in the 6 overtime thriller against UConn I have admired this team's character and determination. They are a strong Big East team that feels they have alot to prove ever since that historical ESPN game. They have won 8 of their last 9 games both ATS and SU and are looking to add to this today. If Flynn & Harris can shut down Harding & Pendergraph early, Syracuse will easily walk away with this one. 80% of the betting public likes Cuse so why not?

TODAY'S PICK:

SYRACUSE -2.5 OVER ARIZONA STATE

overall record 8-5-1

jmathes · 03-23-09, 08:05 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/22

SYRACUSE -2.5 OVER ARIZONA STATE WIN

Another tough card to cap today but I feel like I am coming with a very strong pick. I spent close to an hour completely breaking down each game and changed my mind several times. A few games that I like are: Orlando & New York under 214, Kentucky +2 over Creighton, and Oregon State -1 over Vermont. I have a very good explanation on why each of those are good picks but will keep this short. Out of those three I was leaning heavily on Oregon State because they're playing at home against a Vermont team coming all the way out from the east coast. This is 3 times zones away and alot of times this can affect a team playing a night game. On top of that, the Pac-10 turned out to be better than we all thought they were.

On my pick for the day I wondered if the 80% of the people that picked Stanford +1 over Wichita State knew this game was at home for Wichita. Who cares because I did the math on the Sagarin Predictor and here is what I got: Stanford 82.64 (sos 50) minus Wichita State 74.66 (sos 123) = 7.98(+1 for Stanford). So are they really going to give Wichita State 8.98 points for playing at home just because their home record is 14-3? They don't even give the Cavs 9 points who are 32-1 this year at home. Thats ridiculous considering this is a decent Pac-10 team versus a subpar Missouri Valley Conference opponent. Speaking of which, the Pac-10 had 5 of their 6 teams advance to the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. Talk about overrated home court advantage on this game!! I don't know about you guys but I'm already slobbering on myself about the UConn -6 spread over Purdue on Thursday. That line will be up to -8 by tomorrow guaranteed.

TODAY'S PICK:

STANFORD +1 OVER WICHITA STATE

overall record 9-5-1

jmathes · 03-24-09, 11:21 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/23

STANFORD +1 OVER WICHITA STATE WIN

A very small card once again today but this one will be an easy winner. First I will go over a few games that I saw pretty interesting. The 3 games I like today not on my main card are: Detroit +5.5 over Chicago, Utah -5 over Houston, and San Antonio -9 over Golden State. I usually don't like taking the Spurs on anything because they are a veteran team and also don't score alot of points. However I noticed that the last time they played the Warriors at home it was a beating of 123-88. On top of that the last 4 games against the Warriors at home they have won by an average margin of 30.5 points (35,24,23,40). I had a hard time not making this my pick for the day but feel like I came up with the right decision.

For my main pick I am once again going with the betting public on this game. I really like Penn State +11 over Florida. Similar to last night's game I am taking a step back and looking at the big picture. Its a Big 10 vs SEC battle and this is my selling point. The SEC has to be one of the worst conferences in college basketball. Why would you give Florida -11 points over Penn State? The Sagarin Predictor gives Florida an edge of about 5 points but the strength of schedule has Penn State at 69 and Florida at 104. This means one thing-tougher conference!! This game is at Madison Square Garden so if anyone has the advantage it would be Penn State in that aspect.

I do want to give Billy Donovan alot of props when it comes to this Gator team. They are the team to watch over the next couple of years. Their roster consists of: 6 freshman, 5 sophmores, 1 junior, and only 1 graduating senior. It gets better though because he has committed 3 of the top 15 recruits in the nation. Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy are probably the best shooting guard and power forwards in the country. I guarantee Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators will win another National Championship in either the 2010 or 2011 basketball season. Going back to tonight's team, I strongly feel they lack the overall maturity and talent to beat a Penn State team by 11 at the Garden.

TODAY'S PICK:

PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA

overall record 10-5-1

jmathes · 03-25-09, 09:04 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/24

PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA WIN

I am going to start out today and publicly apologize to micjhenr. He was right and I was wrong-I made a mistake. Now moving forward for today I want to warn you about playing any of those NIT, CBI, And CIT games. All of those lines are pretty damn tight so save your money for a rainy day/Thursday NCAA games. Make sure you take into consideration the various factors of despiration, implications, an motivation some of the teams have. By saying that, I am referring to situations like Gillespie maybe losing his job or St. Mary's pissed off not to be in the tournament, rivalry, revenge, etc... I think where 99% of us go wrong is being able to have the discipline to bet on games where we truly know the matchups involved. All I am saying is do your homework and good luck.

I spent about an hour or so last night analyzing all the games before this one screamed out "Take Atlanta over San Antonio." So far they haven't posted the line for this game but I am guessing that it will be -3 to 5 points. Normally it would be alot less but Vegas will take into consideration Ginobili's injury and Duncan resting due to his sore vagina. Its not 100% if Duncan will sit out on this back to back game but either way I like the Hawks. Lets jump all over this game because the Spurs are a great team and all, but age is catching up to them as the season progresses. The best part of the matchup is how Atlanta is playing at home over the past month. The Hawks have won their last 10 games ATS (9-1 SU) at home. This is no fluke because most of these games have been against good opponents like: Clevelend, Utah, Miami, New Orleans, Portland, etc.. The Spurs are struggling lately at 0-4 ATS and will probably get worse until Duncan pulls his tampon out.

I would like to conclude this by asking a favor of all you haters. Please don't message me or hate on my thread criticizing my plays. I can't guarantee that I will be right 100% of the time, but I guarantee that I will give it my best. Remember the Golden Rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." Good luck and please remember, I love all you guys!

TODAY'S PICK:

ATLANTA -??????? OVER SAN ANTONIO (whether Duncan is playing or not, take the Hawks. I will update the spread later)

overall record 11-5-1

jmathes · 03-25-09, 11:34 AM

TODAY'S PICK:

~~ATLANTA -??????? OVER SAN ANTONIO (whether Duncan is playing or not, take the Hawks. I will update the spread later)~~

The line is up:

ATLANTA -6.5 OVER SAN ANTONIO

overall record 11-5-1

jmathes · 03-26-09, 02:31 PM

RESULTS FROM 3/25

ATLANTA -6.5 OVER SAN ANTONIO LOSS

Tough loss last night as Tony Parker took over the game scoring 42 points. Its all good because I have been eying today's card since the lines came up earlier in the week. Today I am going to drop 2 games on my board but will only give a write-up of one. Memphis -4 over Missouri is something I locked in on Monday but will not go into detail. They are the hottest team in the country and can not be stopped. Memphis has the experience and too much athleticism for Missouri too keep up.

I think that taking the Big East side on this round will be to your best advantage. Their statistics right now are just overwhelming compared to the other conferences. The top 6 teams from this conference are 11-1 in the tourney so far and all three of their #1 seeds have a very good chance of making it to the final four. I'm pretty confident that if you blindly bet on each Big East team covering ATS this round you would be 4-1 or 3-2 at the worst. Don't hold me up on it, although there is that possibility it could happen. For Gods sake look at Syracuse, who was ranked 6th in their conference, won the Big East title and WILL defeat Oklahoma tomorrow. Another case in point would be Notre Dame. They were at the bottom of the Big East Conference but yet they have a legitimate chance to win the NIT Championship (how many had Kentucky last night?). Yeah I know its the NIT but still, that is just another representation of the talent the Big East brings to the table. Coach K is going to regret those comments tonight when Villanova shows Duke which conference is the superior. I know all you are thinking I'm riding the nuts of the Big East...Ill be the first to admit that I am.

I like UConn due to their recent succes winning their 1st and 2nd round games by an average margin of 41 points. Meanwhile, Purdue barely squeaked by their 1st and 2nd round opponents winning by an average of 2.5 points. The inside presence of Thabeet and Adrian will be too much for Purdue's Johnson and Hummel. Connecticut leads the league in rebounds at 40.5. They also rank 3rd in the league in field goal percentage against at 37.4%. Anytime you have a rebound differential as big as this one it only leads to one thing-second chance opportunities. The first part of this game will start off pretty slow with alot of half court offense. After Purdue gets worn down inside they will rely on their outside game to keep them in this one. Purdue's perimeter game is probably the only real advantage they have over the Huskies. Look for UConn to win this one by 10+ points and the total going over the 134. See the two links I attached if you need anymore convincing:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...necticut_N.htm

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/sports/ci_11998239

Today my betting units will look like this: 1 unit on UConn, if they cover in early game then 2/3 unit on Memphis, if they don't cover then 1.25 units on Memphis, and a very small 3 team teaser with Memphis, UConn, and Villanova. I do this because when I have two very strong plays I rarely lose them both in one day. Talk shit about it now, but praise me tomorrow. I guarantee you I'll be up money tomorrow!

TODAY'S PICKS:

UCONN -6.5 OVER PURDUE

MEMPHIS -4 OVER MISSOURI

overall record 11-6-1

jmathes · 03-27-09, 11:22 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/26

UCONN -6.5 OVER PURDUE WIN

MEMPHIS -4 OVER MISSOURI LOSS

My main game today is going to be Syracuse +1 over Oklahoma. This game today is going to be an all out war of attrition. There is no doubt what these two teams are capable of but I just think that Syracuse has much more depth than Oklahoma. Blake Griffin is a hell of a player, but overall Syracuse is just going to eat their lunch. I said it before and Ill say it again, after the 6 overtime win against UConn in the Big East tourney, the Orangemen feel that have something to prove. There is no doubt Blake Griffin is the best player in the country, however a one man show will not get the job done against Syracuse. Cuse has won 9 of their last 10 games both ATS and SU and will win this one tonight.

A few other games I like tonight are Arizona +9.5 over Louisville, Orlando -11 over Milwaukee, and San Antonio -10.5 over the Clippers. I can't bet against Louisville though because you never know how this team is going to show up. I think the spread on this one is a little too big which favors Arizona greatly. I usually steer clear of double digit spreads in the NBA but I like how both teams have played recently. On top of that I really like their past games against these opponents in particular. Its tough not to play all the games you like but I have found in the past that playing one game a day will keep my percentage much higher rather than picking 2-3 games. So with that being said lets stick to 1 big play, unless I see something I really like. If you are itching for more plays I would take Orlando -11 over Milwaukee as I see that my 2nd strongest play.

TODAY'S PICK:

SYRACUSE + 1 OVER OKLAHOMA

overall record 12-7-1

jmathes · 03-28-09, 10:12 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/27

SYRACUSE + 1 OVER OKLAHOMA LOSS

Don't have time to do a write up this morning but I really like UConn

TODAY'S PICK:

UCONN -5.5 OVER MISSOURI

overall record 12-8-1

jmathes · 03-29-09, 11:36 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/28

UCONN -5.5 OVER MISSOURI WIN

Today I saw a few games that really stood out on the card. I really like Louisville -6.5, and Sacramento +6. After watching the intensity of Louisville in their last game against Arizona, that just solidified why I picked them to win it all. The way they started that game was similar to how Chuck Liddell comes out of the gates in his UFC fights-A BAT OUTTA HELL!! When you have that much intensity and can keep it up for an entire game, nobody can match that. I liked Sacramento +6 over Phoenix. 92% of the betting public is on Sacramento as of right now, but I have a theory on why the Kings will win tonight. Back to back, fatigue, and another huge factor is involved in this game. We will see how that pans out tonight.

My pick for today is with the Boston Celtics -10 over Oklahoma City Thunder. This is a very gutsy call because OKC has been the spread killers this year in the NBA. However, the Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 ATS and the Thunder are the flipside of this at 1-4. I believe as the season goes on it is taking a toll on Kevin Durant, which we all know is the one man show. Since he has already proven himself and there is nothing else to really play for, look for the Thunder to continue their downward spiral. I know the Celtics have quite a bit of injuries but I think they are being undervalued on this line. Even if Rondo is not a go today, Marbury will step in and do just fine.

TODAY'S PICK:

BOSTON -10 OVER OKLAHOMA CITY

overall record 13-8-1

jmathes · 03-30-09, 11:20 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/29

BOSTON -10 OVER OKLAHOMA CITY WIN

Before I go into my spill about who the hell I'm gonna play today I want to talk about a particular trend I noticed last night in the NBA. Its is the reverse of the JM system. If you read yesterday's write-up I mentioned that the Kings would cover ATS and not only did they cover, they beat them outright. Those of you who don't know about the JM system do your homework and come back to this thread. I had an idea a few months ago in regards to that system. Why not observe the opposite of that trend and see how teams do on their home court? Now this has not been as lucky as the JM plays, but it usually will give 10 wins for every loss. Here is what I do: take a team playing at home 3 consecutive games in a row, filter against top 3 teams in the league but will play any lower teams, calculate the sagarin predictions on the 3 upcoming games to make sure no spreads will be double digit. With those being the only filters I have I consider this when capping some of my smaller plays. I think there is more motivation for a home team to show up after a loss rather than a road team. A man's pride is something you really don't want to mess with, especially when it comes to losing 3 times in a row at home. So I noticed yesterday, Sacramento was playing their 3rd game in a row coming off losses to Memphis and Philly at home. This play was even stronger due to the fact that Phoenix is a veteran team coming off a back to back game. Take what you want out of the trend, just know I am simply sharing this to help your odds in the future.

My pick for today is with New Jersey -3 over Milwaukee. The Nets have had the Bucks' balls in their hands in recent matchups. Jersey completely owns them with a 9-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. The Nets are ranked at the top of the NBA shooting the three so look for this to be a nice separation point for them. Milwaukee has the 3rd worst field goal percentage at 44.3%. These teams typically play a relatively tight game against each other. However, the home court advantage will give New Jersey that edge in order to cover the spread and possibly win by a much bigger margin. I also like the under 194 in the Orlando and Miami game tonight. Good luck!

TODAY'S PICK:

NEW JERSEY -3 OVER MILWAUKEE

overall record 14-8-1

cankid · 03-30-09, 11:56 AM

Nice keep it going, gl today

jmathes · 03-31-09, 12:56 PM

RESULTS FROM 3/30

NEW JERSEY -3 OVER MILWAUKEE LOSS

Today I am going to switch things up and go with 5 games on my card. I wanted to see how I would do going with more action. We are going to see how this goes and if I am not atleast 3-2 for the night we will go back to one or two games at the most. My theme today is going for all the underdogs because I feel the favorites are just a little overvalued in these matchups.

Charlotte +6.5 over the LA Lakers. I like this game because I feel that Charlotte has much more to play for than the Lakers. They are 2 games out of the final 8th spot in the Eastern Conference while the Lakers have already clinched the #1 seed. The Bobcats have also played very well against the Lakers in the last few meetings. The last time they played each other was a 117-110 double overtime win in Las Angeles for the Bobcats. Like I said before, Charlotte is fighting for that last playoff spot while the Lakers look to ease it up going down the stretch.

TODAY'S PICK:

CHARLOTTE +6.5 OVER LA LAKERS

DETROIT +10 OVER CLEVELAND

OKLAHOMA CITY +13 OVER SAN ANTONIO

NEW ORLEANS & SACRAMENTO UNDER 202

SACRAMENTO +7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS

jmathes · 04-01-09, 11:34 AM

RESULTS FROM 3/31

CHARLOTTE +6.5 OVER LA LAKERS WIN

DETROIT +10 OVER CLEVELAND WIN

OKLAHOMA CITY +13 OVER SAN ANTONIO WIN

NEW ORLEANS & SACRAMENTO UNDER 202 LOSS

SACRAMENTO +7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS WIN

Wow, I murdered it last night going 4-1. I'm pretty pissed about that 70 point 1st quarter in the New Orleans & Sacramento game because that kept me from a perfect 5-0 last night. I have gotten alot of emails from people that like the bigger cards but I will be the first to admit, sticking to 1-2 games is my specialty. There is not one capper out there that can hit in the mid 60% range dropping 4-5 picks a day.

Today's pick is a no brainer after what happened to this team last night. The Hornets came into their place and hit a 3 point buzzer beater to beat them by one point in a heart breaker. This will be a huge revenge factor when the bitter Kings make that short travel to face the Warriors tonight. I can not believe the line on this game is at -8.5 for the Warrriors. Did these guys take into account all the injuries Golden State have? Check out the injury report and it will put a smile on your face before you bet this one. I realize that it is a back to back and a road game for the Kings here but come on, they are playing the Warriors for crying out loud. The Kings have actually beat them the last 2 games straight up and 4 games ATS. Tonight I also like Boston -8 over Charlotte, and Detroit +2 over New Jersey. Good luck!

TODAY'S PICK:

SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE

overall record 18-9-1

jmathes · 04-02-09, 11:58 AM

RESULTS FROM 4/01

SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE WIN

Don't know how many people watched the Sacramento & Golden State game last night but that had to be one of the worst NBA games I have ever seen in my life. They need to incorporate the European Soccer rule for the NBA. The last place teams in the bottom of the overall league standings get demoted down to a lower league. The only way that team can come back up is to win their division the next year. I hate to be the Debbie Downer but it looks like the Kings will be playing in the CBA for the next few years-lol. This would give much more incentive for the players to put forth a decent effort. Well enough of that, lets talk about today's card.

Today's pick I will go with the Denver Nuggets -4.5 over the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS when playing on the road against Western Conference teams ranked higher than them. Yeah that is alot to comprehend, but the point is they are a terrible road team. The Jazz are dismal 14-28 on the road while the Nuggets boast a great home record at 29-8. I will admit the Jazz are probably the better overall team, but you have to be able to get the job done on the road. This game will have playoff intensity written all over it, since Utah is only 2 1/2 games behind the 2nd place Nuggets. Another strong game I like today is Washington +10.5 over Cleveland. I am not going to mess with this game because the Cavs are on a mission but lets watch to see what would happen.

TODAY'S PICK:

DENVER -4.5 OVER UTAH

overall record 19-9-1

jjgold · 04-02-09, 12:16 PM

nice work Mather

Keep it up

jmathes · 04-03-09, 02:11 PM

RESULTS FROM 4/01

DENVER -4.5 OVER UTAH WIN

Guys, sorry I am posting this so late but it has been a disastrous morning. We got close to 2 feet of snow here in Vail, Colorado and the blizzard wiped out my electricity for most of the morning...back to to business. Today, there is a huge card of NBA plays that looked very interesting. As usual I am going to play 1 game but will toss a few out there that I really liked. Orlando -3 (back to back for Cleve), Boston -4.5 (Atlanta terrible on road lately), Phoenix -12.5 (Phoen rested & Kings deflated from last 2 tough losses), and Oregon State +9.5 (are they really gonna give UTEP 10 again?). The stronger out of these plays would be on Orlando.

I am going to throw a statistic out there that I've had a good deal of success with lately. Criticize systems/trends all you want but why bet against one? When some of my bets fall into 2 of these trend categories this makes my plays that much stronger. This year if falling into 2 of my system bets, these games have had a remarkable 24-4 record. Here is my fun fact for the day: Teams 4 games over five hundred or better, not on a 8+ game winning streak, are 9-38 ATS against non divisional teams at least 4 games under five hundred if favored by 5 or more. And if in their previous game vs this same team they lost, or won by no more than 4, they are 0-12 ATS. Charlotte and New York were 2 more winners that covered ATS on Tuesday. If the San Antonio line goes to -5 or more today, you might want to consider betting Indiana +5.

Today I am going with the LA Lakers -5.5 over the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have more to play for than the Lakers, however they will come up short. I am aware that the Lakers have claimed that #1 seed and the Rockets are fighting for home court in the first round, but that is just not enough. I think the depth of the Lakers will be too much for the Rockets to handle. Los Angeles is averaging 106.0 points on 51.2 percent shooting in winning the first three meetings of the season with Houston. The Lakers have had little trouble in those games, outscoring the Rockets by an average of 13.3. This will be a back in forth game early, but the depth and high scoring of the Lakers will easily have them winning by double digits. Kobe loves to showcase his talent, so look for him to step up big on ESPN's Friday night game at the Staples Center.

TODAY'S PICK:

LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON

overall record 20-9-1

jmathes · 04-04-09, 10:04 AM

RESULTS FROM 4/03

LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON WIN

Where is the love fellas? I want to give 2 people some love when it comes to yesterday's plays. The first one will be myself. Go back and read my write up from yesterday. Every single factor I mentioned came into play and was dead on. Here is a portion of that I posted from yesterday and had you played you would have hit 5-0 for the day: "Orlando -3 (back to back for Cleve), Boston -4.5 (Atlanta terrible on road lately), Phoenix -12.5 (Phoen rested & Kings deflated from last 2 tough losses), and Oregon State +9.5 (are they really gonna give UTEP 10 again?). The stronger out of these plays would be on Orlando." I would also like to give some love to a buddy who is the best bookie in town. Here is the last section of his write up yesterday: "Boston has averaged 104 points in its last seven games without KG and Atlanta had cracked 93 points in eight of nine before their last two games. That’s still eight of 11 games at 93 or more points. If both teams just do what they normally do – and that will be my final score 104-93 (but I’m not saying who will win!) – then this one will soar over this low total." The final score ended up being 104-94...Are you kidding me?

Today I am going to stick with the NBA games and steer clear of College Basketball. When it gets past the Sweet 16 I like to stay away from those games. The last few rounds of the tourney are where the linesmakers really buckle down and make it hard for us. In the NBA I am going with the under 221 (5Dimes) in the Toronto and New York game. My spreadsheet totals forecast this game to be at 207.4 which is 12+ points below the set total. If you take the higher of the 2 teams PF and PA which is 105.6 & 108.3 you still wouldn't get anywhere close to this total. That is not the correct way to simulate the totals but I am illustrating how much this total is inflated. This number doesn't take into account Toronto's ovetime game at 263 points a few days ago (25 pts in OT). It also hasn't taken into account that New York's offense is not what is was 2 months ago, which creates a big inflation as well. I usually stay away from over/unders but this is one you can not lay off. The games I like today are Villanove +8, Denver -14, and Toronto +3. The strongest game of those would be the Nuggets -14 over the Clippers

TODAY'S PICK:

TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221

overall record 21-9-1

jjgold · 04-04-09, 04:26 PM

Nice going

this guy is hot

BandwagonFan · 04-04-09, 04:32 PM

Jmathes, hell of a job...keep it.

10 and 1 in last 11. 2 more wins for 60% Not very often, you see someone touting a 60%+ system and actually hit that number. Wow!

jmathes · 04-04-09, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Nice going

this guy is hot

Yes JJ, I am very hot. God tends to bless some people and he definitely blessed me with good looks. That is what your talking about right...my good lucks? Either way you can see the attached photo of me and if interested we can talk later-lol.

Originally posted by BandwagonFan

Jmathes, hell of a job...keep it.

10 and 1 in last 11. 2 more wins for 60% Not very often, you see someone touting a 60%+ system and actually hit that number. Wow!

Yeah, the crazy thing is that I am hitting in the mid 60s since November in NBA and NCAA plays. I have not started posting them until a few weeks ago, but I have hit that percentage with well over 150 picks. Some will criticize and say its beginner luck, well if hitting 65% over 150 plays is luck then slap the shit out of me and call me your bitch. And if you think I'm a beginner then please slap me again!

I will not count this for my record but Denver -13 is a strong play tonight. I have watched just about every single Nuggets game and definitely know what they are capable of. The line is moving hard but still jump on. This will easily be a 20+ victory for the Nuggets. Thanks for the props guys and wish the best of luck to you all. Please tail with caution because all good things come to an end.

Attached Files

SlickFazzer · 04-05-09, 02:54 AM