Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 12:45 AM

225461772-1	1/30/14 11:54pm	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	1/30/14 10:35pm NBA Basketball 505 Los Angeles Clippers/Golden State Warriors 2nd Half Over 106 -110*
225461772-2	1/30/14 11:54pm	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	1/30/14 10:35pm NBA Basketball 506 Golden State Warriors 2nd Half -1 -110* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Clippers

**bald_guy** · 01-31-14, 10:29 AM

Sure!! I love using Excel 2013 and figuring out to do this and that. I have NO LIFE at all, and I'm being 100% serious. Today/tonight and this weekend will work with it to give you that information. It should be easy thanks to the GREAT WORK HE is doing for us on his record keeping site. He even has a column for the type of bet (Spread/ML/Total). So will be easy to do.

I assume by negative-handicap. You are saying you only want the ML that were Dogs???

EDIT: In looking at the NBA only spreadsheet, There are very few bets that are ML and postive handicap. In fact only 7 total records. So perhaps I don't understand what you want.

Record on them 7 are (as picked) : 4-3 1.35 units

Originally posted by fitguy67

bald_guy...could you run that nba record EX-cluding all totals and negative-handicap plays
(ie. including only ML's and positive-handicaps)...

i'm just curious because ever since i dropped these frustration-loaded plays, i've certainly slept better...and suspect that on balance i've saved my account a few bills as well

**LucaBrotsi** · 01-31-14, 10:45 AM

Hey what are you feeling for tonights game? have had a shit week could use all the help I can get.

thanks,
Luca

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 12:56 PM

Adding (at Bodog where I still had a few bucks.....):

an 31, 2014 09:52:38 AM

Single #332152640
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
All Super Bowl XLVIII bets will have action regardless of any date or venue change.
SUPER BOWL XLVIII @ Metlife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ
(101) Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) Feb 02/14@03:30p
Competitor: (102) Denver Broncos

Web

CA$ 230.00

CA$ 200.00

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 12:59 PM

225496477-1	1/31/14 12:59pm	$50.00	$60.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 57 New Jersey Devils +120* <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators
225496477-2	1/31/14 12:59pm	$53.00	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 60 Winnipeg Jets -106* <small>vs</small> Vancouver Canucks

225496376-1	1/31/14 12:57pm	$51.50	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 807 Oklahoma City Thunder/Brooklyn Nets Over 197½ -103*
225496376-2	1/31/14 12:57pm	$52.50	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 811 Toronto Raptors/Denver Nuggets Over 205 -105*

**jjgold** · 01-31-14, 01:52 PM

Dollar Bill your sbr future riding on the line tomorrow

Do you become a made man here???

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Dollar Bill your sbr future riding on the line tomorrow

Do you become a made man here???

I have been a made man for ages.

I made my bed

I made it with the hottest chick I ever met

I made my first million

I made breakfast for myself

I made the wheels go around at SBR in your time away....

No matter what happens....I am already made!

**jjgold** · 01-31-14, 05:40 PM

Dollar Bill SBR Cred on the line tomorrow

Approx 6:00 PM ET

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Dollar Bill SBR Cred on the line tomorrow

Approx 6:00 PM ET

That's Two Dollar Bill to you, fool!

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 01-31-14, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by bald_guy

Sure!! I love using Excel 2013 and figuring out to do this and that. I have NO LIFE at all, and I'm being 100% serious. Today/tonight and this weekend will work with it to give you that information. It should be easy thanks to the GREAT WORK HE is doing for us on his record keeping site. He even has a column for the type of bet (Spread/ML/Total). So will be easy to do.

I assume by negative-handicap. You are saying you only want the ML that were Dogs???

EDIT: In looking at the NBA only spreadsheet, There are very few bets that are ML and postive handicap. In fact only 7 total records. So perhaps I don't understand what you want.

Record on them 7 are (as picked) : 4-3 1.35 units

BG, would you consider helping me track D2D? I am going to be on the road quite a bit this spring and early summer, and our little one will be born in July. Would be great if you could help me track...very easy. Think it over and let me know. Thanks. -B

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 06:14 PM

Adding:

225525548-1	1/31/14 6:14pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 805 Memphis Grizzlies/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 188½ -108*
225525548-2	1/31/14 6:14pm	$78.75	$75.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 808 Brooklyn Nets +5 -105* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder
225525548-3	1/31/14 6:14pm	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	1/31/14 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 811 Toronto Raptors/Denver Nuggets Over 203 -108*

**labones00** · 01-31-14, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

225496477-1	1/31/14 12:59pm	$50.00	$60.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 57 New Jersey Devils +120* <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators
225496477-2	1/31/14 12:59pm	$53.00	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 60 Winnipeg Jets -106* <small>vs</small> Vancouver Canucks

225496376-1	1/31/14 12:57pm	$51.50	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 807 Oklahoma City Thunder/Brooklyn Nets Over 197½ -103*
225496376-2	1/31/14 12:57pm	$52.50	$50.00	Pending	1/31/14 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 811 Toronto Raptors/Denver Nuggets Over 205 -105*

I'm on the other end of both your NBA picks lol

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by labones00

I'm on the other end of both your NBA picks lol

No worries.....in fact I love to hear that. Most everyone is on the other side in the Raptors game....

I have only one thing to say....

'it's Friday night'

GL

**labones00** · 01-31-14, 06:23 PM

The public is almost 75% on the OVER in the Toronto game yet the line has gone down...

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 01-31-14, 06:24 PM

like the Jets too...I've been on a nice hockey run..hope it continues

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by labones00

The public is almost 75% on the OVER in the Toronto game yet the line has gone down...

I know, RLM at it's best....scares me off when I don't know the team, but I have watched a ton of Raps and I am comfortable with it.....but I do thank you for your input.....important to know what is going on.

**labones00** · 01-31-14, 06:44 PM

Hey, the good news is one of us will hit on the Tor/Den game lol

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by labones00

Hey, the good news is one of us will hit on the Tor/Den game lol

You bet!!

**Coreos** · 01-31-14, 07:03 PM

I'm on the same side w/Nets +5 & over Raptors. Got Over 1H Raptors as well. GL bud.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 10:38 PM

I just don't understand. The Devils are up 2-1 and give up the tying goal with 11 seconds left and lose it in OT.

This is has been happening to me all year....seriously I do not win any games like this. Ugh.

**Rumplebeanskin** · 01-31-14, 10:42 PM

I had Devils in reg +170. 10 seconds away. Rubbish.

Just waiting for the Jets to chuck this away so it can be a perfect 0/2!

Condolences anyway

**Rumplebeanskin** · 01-31-14, 10:47 PM

A bit like that…..

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 11:06 PM

Pretty funny....I don't usually believe games are fixed but......

The over should have been easy....and then the Raptors go 5 minutes without a score....yes, 5 minutes without ONE point.

Seems likely. Now there is no chance this game goes over.....and I don't really get this....like the NJ game earlier, this one just did not make sense.

From now on, or until I get back in the groove I am going to be very selective and only play certain games....

Goodnight folks

WOW....watching this is painful. The Raps go 6:04 without a point.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 01-31-14, 11:10 PM

OK, I don't get this....both teams playing like this is a playoff game.....down 20 at the start of the 4th the NUggets and Raps started playing like they were tied.....HUGE defensive stops, etc.....blocks, running the shot clock....

I am lost.

**Grunch** · 01-31-14, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by bald_guy

D2D is positive on all sports expect NBA which is down -41.49. I wondered what would happen if the Seinfeld Effect was applied. Using excel 2013 (I'm really loving this suite so far), I did some light conditional statements and filtering to find out.

Results (NBA only):
As picked: 119-139-2 (-41.49)
Seinfeld Effect: 139-119-2 (+2.89).

Last time I ran the numbers a few weeks ago, both results was down units.

I was surprised as I was thinking if u was down so many units, doing the SE you would be that many units up. But do to Juice/Odds that's not the case.

This was just me using excel 2013. Results could be wrong. I just find it interesting to play around with such stats. I think this shows fading a handicapper even if they are struggling a bit, is NOT very profitable.

You can't just flip the numbers around like that. If he bet 2u on a -200 game to win 1u you are pretending like you risked the same 2u to win the same 1u on the other team. If you had bet the other team you would have gotten big + odds, you can't ignore that. If I flip it properly considering -105 odds on coinflips (adjusting the odds for juice) then the flipped result would be +18.38u.

**bald_guy** · 02-01-14, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by Grunch

You can't just flip the numbers around like that. If he bet 2u on a -200 game to win 1u you are pretending like you risked the same 2u to win the same 1u on the other team. If you had bet the other team you would have gotten big + odds, you can't ignore that. If I flip it properly considering -105 odds on coinflips (adjusting the odds for juice) then the flipped result would be +18.38u.

You are correct. Most of D2D's plays are favorites. So the opposite is + odds. Since the odds are not recorded for the opposite pick, I guess I can't really do the SE effect with the available data.

Only thing my attempt did was show the result of what would happen if the game had the opposite outcome on D2D's bet. Is your +18.38 considering all the NBA bets?

**Grunch** · 02-01-14, 02:03 AM

Yes, for all NBA bets. I just adjusted the odds for the other side considering a 2.38% house edge which is approximately what 5dimes charges on their reduced juice. So basically -200 on one side would be about +181 on the other side. Or to be more precise, risking 2 to win 1 was changed to risking 1 to win 2 without adjusting (which would just cause the -41.49 to become +41.49), and risking 1.05 to win 1.90476 (2/1.05) adjusted (which results in +18.38).

**bald_guy** · 02-01-14, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by Grunch

Yes, for all NBA bets. I just adjusted the odds for the other side considering a 2.38% house edge which is approximately what 5dimes charges on their reduced juice. So basically -200 on one side would be about +181 on the other side. Or to be more precise, risking 2 to win 1 was changed to risking 1 to win 2 without adjusting (which would just cause the -41.49 to become +41.49), and risking 1.05 to win 1.90476 (2/1.05) adjusted (which results in +18.38).

Interesting. I would say you are close. Be interesting to see how close if the other odd was captured. Also, if D2D mostly bet on dogs instead of favorites, he wouldn't pay the juice. He would bet 1 to win 1.X instead of 1.X to win 1. Then if he lost, he would lose 1, instead of 1 + juice.

This isn't really the place to run analyst on D2D's record. The forum is D2D's to tell his followers what the bet is and to get feedback from his followers. I was going to make a thread (if D2D gave me permission) to talk about what if this and what if that. But since I don't have the other side odds, not sure its worth it.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 02-01-14, 11:21 AM

BG, not sure if you saw my above post, but if you are not interested, just let me know and I won't ask again

**bald_guy** · 02-01-14, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

BG, not sure if you saw my above post, but if you are not interested, just let me know and I won't ask again

O I'm sorry. I actually replied to that in an e-mail you sent me. Perhaps it went to your SPAM directory. Didn't ignore you. I sent the e-mail out on January 6, 2014 from yahoo mail.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 02-01-14, 12:42 PM

bg, could you resend?...not seeing it in my inbox or spam. Thanks. -B

**bald_guy** · 02-01-14, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

bg, could you resend?...not seeing it in my inbox or spam. Thanks. -B

Done. It seems I mistakenly sent it to forum@sbrforum.com instead of you. Sometimes them conversation views get confusing to me. I disabled that feature for now. Sorry about that.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 02-01-14, 07:28 PM

Hey guys, on the Raps + points and the Sac Kings + points, will post the tickets later!!

**treyg85** · 02-01-14, 09:51 PM

What y'all think about the Super Bowl any interesting picks taking the under points going to be low scoring

**Dollars2Donuts** · 02-02-14, 01:44 AM

Super happy with both of today's bets. I will be focused on a smaller amount of plays like this for the next few weeks to get back on track. Here they were:

Feb 01, 2014 04:26:40 PM

Single #332450587
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(521) Toronto Raptors +7½ (-115) Feb 01/14@07:05p

Final Scores
Toronto Raptors 103
Portland Trail Blazers 106

Outcome: Win
Date settled: Feb 01, 2014 09:39:24 PM

Web

CA$ 130.87

CA$ 113.80

225808767-1	2/1/14 11:29am	$108.00	$100.00	$208.00	Win	2/1/14 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 517 Sacramento Kings +10½ -108* <small>vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
225808767-2	2/1/14 11:29am	$102.00	$100.00	$202.00	Win	2/1/14 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 521 Toronto Raptors +7 -102* <small>vs</small> Portland Trailblazers