hollywood experts: is slumdog a lock?

Bread · 02-16-09, 02:27 PM

Tried to get in to see The Reader last night but was sold out. That was a bummer. I'm betting that's a really good film.

BobHarvey · 02-16-09, 02:33 PM

It's another year of me not seeing ONE of the nominated movies. However I did manage to see the other 500 hundred that weren't nominated. I still says Gran Torino got hosed. Great movie.

Bread · 02-16-09, 02:36 PM

I will do this much: I'll guarantee you that Benjamin Button does NOT win. Not even sure why it was nominated, or odds so low. The concept was not novel and the acting was sub-par.

pico · 02-16-09, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by BobHarvey

It's another year of me not seeing ONE of the nominated movies. However I did manage to see the other 500 hundred that weren't nominated. I still says Gran Torino got hosed. Great movie.

same here.

when i bet brokeback mountain without seeing any of the nominated...then rented crash after i lost.

Willie Bee · 02-16-09, 02:37 PM

Go see Frost/Nixon, Bob. Very well acted, one of my favorite new movies in years.

I've got no desire to see Slumdog.

pico · 02-16-09, 02:39 PM

i have a feeling Milk is going to pull an upset since how gay the hollywood is.

Mudcat · 02-16-09, 02:42 PM

Yeah I had a thread about this last week. My take is that it is correctly favored but -752 is WAY too much chalk (and therefore there is value on the field). Of course any time you bet against a big favorite like that, you are more likely to lose than win but again, I'm talking value.

Even since last week, Slumdog has gotten more expensive. It was only -666 at the time.

If I play this dog, it will be to bet David Fincher for Best Director (for Benjamin Button). He is currently +825 where Danny Boyle (Slumdog) is -762.

Of course Oscar betting is usually more about evaluating the psychology of the voters than evaluating the movies. That's why I lean towards the Best Director bet over Best Picture. Oscar voters tend to like social causes. That works in Slumdog's favor for Best Picture (although Milk would qualify if you want to jump on a +4369 dog).

But I think they might like the technical superiority of Benny Button from a directing standpoint.

Mudcat · 02-16-09, 02:47 PM

The question is, who has the balls to bet against Heath Ledger for Supporting Actor.

Pinnacle not even hanging a line. You can grab Heath at -2900 at Matchbook. Or -10,000 at Intertops.

BobHarvey · 02-16-09, 02:49 PM

Would Heath Ledger still be the heavy favorite if he were alive?

AMBlai01 · 02-16-09, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Go see Frost/Nixon, Bob. Very well acted, one of my favorite new movies in years.

Willie...I think you are a little partial on this one. Considering you worked on that election. It holds a special place in your heart. Am I wrong?

Willie Bee · 02-16-09, 03:03 PM

Oh, I don't know Amby. You might be right, think it might have more to do with the era the movie was set and not that I did indeed work on Nixon's '72 re-election campaign. Just thought it told a good story -- and the main storyline of the movie is not about Watergate, rather the battle of egos between Nixon and Frost in the interview and their different reasons for wanting to do the interview.

Just thought it was very well acted for the most part and compared to other flicks I've gone to see on recent Super Bowl Sundays, it was head & shoulders above them.

Mudcat · 02-16-09, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by BobHarvey

Would Heath Ledger still be the heavy favorite if he were alive?

I'll go ahead and say no to that. I think he might still be the favorite - it was a pretty splashy performance - all the other performances are good but kinda just, "ehh" - but I feel sure that the "posthumous" thing is factoring in pretty big.

At least it is in the minds of bettors who are driving the odds.

I doubt it is as big a factor in the minds of voters. Many posthumous nominations have not won over the years - so they may not be as sentimental as bettors imagine. (But I sure wouldn't vote against Heath this year.)