Set the line: No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Michigan State this Tuesday

[Sam Odom]

i'm guessing kentucky -2.5 or 3.5 something with a hook.

-2.5 = Small play for Sammy

-3.5 = Pass

[thetrinity]

kentucky -1.5

[ChalkyDog]

Predict the line vegas will put out? Or predict the fair value of the game?

MSU -7.

Math models have this mostly as a PK, meaning I assume vegas will put it around there with a slight shade towards UK for public reasons.

[Sam Odom]

MSU -7

CD... is that your personal # on the gm ?

[No coincidences]

CD... is that your personal # on the gm ?

If you stripped down these teams and didn't know the rankings, jerseys, etc., I don't think MSU -7 would be too far off given the context of this particular game.

[Sam Odom]

If you stripped down these teams and didn't know the rankings, jerseys, etc., I don't think MSU -7 would be too far off...

Up thread you said...

I'm anticipating (Ky) -2

NoCoin , if the opening line is Ky -2 then you'll believe (capped) that the opening line would be 9pts off (crossing 0 tho)

Is that right ?

[thetrinity]

msu -7 is way closer to the real line then what the sec homer thinks.

itll be kentucky -1 or -1.5 tho

[Sam Odom]

itll be kentucky -1 or -1.5 tho

Sammy hopes so... be an 1% play

[ChalkyDog]

I think MSU is a very good to great team, and already a better team than Kentucky. Kentucky has a lot of individual pieces that has a long way to go to being a good to great team.

Kentucky is so damn weird. They are going off of hype of if they landed Wiggins. Wiggins didn't sign, and people maintained the same hype of "best recruiting class evaaa". That is insane.

In my opinion, MSU and UL are 1a and 1b. Everyone else has a lot to prove to be considered next to those guys. Duke might be right there too, but I still wouldn't put them with MSU and UL.

I say -7 due to the likelihood of freethrows down the stretch. My numbers are also close to that, but I have zero trust in my own numbers at this early juncture. Especially with teams like UK who have a ton of unknown variables. Teams with a lot of the same guys, ie UL, I feel a lot more confident in.

If MSU is getting points, I will be on that side, more than likely ML.

The matchup is how will MSU handle Randle. On the flipside, how will UK handle Payne. Payne was a top 25 player in the nation last year. He has gotten better. Randle is the no. 1 pick in next years draft, assuming KU doesn't win the title.

[Sam Odom]

.

Good post

My numbers are also close to that, but I have zero trust in my own numbers at this early juncture.

We should ALL feel that way...

Not sure why some posters are so adamant this early , either way , on what a line should be.

[No coincidences]

Up thread you said...





NoCoin , if the opening line is Ky -2 then you'll believe (capped) that the opening line would be 9pts off (crossing 0 tho)

Is that right ?

I said it wouldn't be too far off at 7. I think MSU should be about -5 given the time and context of this game, so yes, at +2 I think the number is going to be off by about 7 points.

I agree with the poster who said it would be a completely different story in March, though. Kentucky's going to be much closer to a finished product by then.

An "X factor" in this game to me is the re-emergence of Branden Dawson. He's finally got his legs back and is healthy. Can really be an impact player again for MSU after a very frustrating sophomore season.

[No coincidences]

Wow. MSU opens at -2.5 at BOL and immediately goes to -3.5.

I'm stunned. Books are smarter than I thought. Will still probably be on MSU, but was hoping to get a + number.

Good call on the -5, Sammy!

[bubblebuttluv]

What is the line on the Duke/Kansas game? 5Dimes doesn't have Tuesday's lines out yet.

I think it should be a pk.

[Ra77er]

Duke -3.5 and Im quite surprised with the MSU line, I'll be taking Korntucky


Duke -4.5 opener... now -3.5 sorry pal

[bubblebuttluv]

Duke -3.5 and Im quite surprised with the MSU line, I'll be taking Korntucky


Duke -4.5 opener... now -3.5 sorry pal

I'll be on Duke for sure. I think Duke is definately the more complete team and Jabari will trash people in his hometown.

I got a new vid coming out later today in which I said two units on Duke (moneyline) and 1 unit on MSU (moneyline), but I think now I'll have 2.5 units on Duke and one on MSU.

[No coincidences]

Duke -3.5 and Im quite surprised with the MSU line, I'll be taking Korntucky


Duke -4.5 opener... now -3.5 sorry pal

Kentucky +3.5 seems like exactly what the books want you to take, Ra77.

[Ra77er]

I know Coins, perfect spot for sharps that know CBB to stay away from the game or wait till the line hits MSU -2 to bet. This one looks like UK for sure. MSU as an underdog I'll take all year, I'm Korncerned at this spot after seeing Randle in his first two games. Love Izzo and nothing but respect but this one is gonna be UK big imho.

[Ra77er]

I relate this to a poker game in the I know you know what you think you know kind of logic, best of luck on MSU but I'm on UK here.

[No coincidences]

I know Coins, perfect spot for sharps that know CBB to stay away from the game or wait till the line hits MSU -2 to bet. This one looks like UK for sure. MSU as an underdog I'll take all year, I'm Korncerned at this spot after seeing Randle in his first two games. Love Izzo and nothing but respect but this one is gonna be UK big imho.

Really? You think? We're on opposite wave lengths. Kentucky has more talent without question, but MSU has four starters back and is the much more experienced team. I'm typically all about fading the Spartans in November and December, but I think there's something about this group and I'm not sure if UK is ready as a "team" for a game like this one.

Now if you asked me to cap this game a few months from now, I think UK is going to be scary good down the road.

[Brock Landers]

Duke is the stronger play

[Ra77er]

I know, my logic is reversed with you and others here on MSU. I think the exact opposite in that MSU will bust some heads later as the year goes along (mainly due to Izzo's coaching) and UK with all that youth is gonna be a little too pumped in this spot. I guess I'm basically taking the paper champion here and team that very inexperienced that feels invincible at this point. Should be a great game and I'm excited.

-Easy to motivate UK now seeing Vegas having them as a dog as well

[ChalkyDog]

Just witnessed Calipari bitching about how unfair it is to play MSU so early in the season.

You can't make that level of bitch-made up.

Hope MSU knocks UK out of the top 25 in a single game. Most unproven team in the nation. Putting them at no. 1 is a slap in the face of the entire college basketball world.

Can't wait for this game!

[bubblebuttluv]

Once again Calipari proves how much of a punk-ass bitch he is.

[thetrinity]

fairly surprised that michigan st opened as the favorite.

its what it really should have been but i did expect ky -1 or -1.5

[Sam Odom]

Good call on the -5, Sammy!

Not sure why you think Sammy said the Opening Line would be -5

Sammy said his line was -5

All this means is... Sammy bets Ky

[Sam Odom]

Yup

That is Sammy's line... Will determine if there is a 'play' on the game by that line vs opening line

See ^

[Big Bear]

Kentucky +3.5 seems like exactly what the books want you to take, Ra77.

is this a Pinny lean?

[Big Bear]

Once again Calipari proves how much of a punk-ass bitch he is.

what did he do?

[LT Profits]

I am sorry but I was forced to bet Kentucky against my will. Like I said, my line on this was -1 either way or Pick, so I had to bet Kentucky +3 on principle.

[LT Profits]

I missed out on the +3.5.

[Big Bear]

LT what does the line movement say about this game?

are the bookies tipping their hand?

[No coincidences]

is this a Pinny lean?

LT what does the line movement say about this game?

are the bookies tipping their hand?

Shut up already.

jesus.

[Sam Odom]

I am sorry but I was forced to bet Kentucky against my will.

Hope we cash...

[k13]

Everyone was so off on this line guess.

Kansas a dog too.

Interesting games.
I'd play Kentucky just cause I want to see them lose.

[Big Bear]

Duke is the stronger play

you layin the points or ML?