Interesting PAC-10 game tonight

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65657

    #1
    Interesting PAC-10 game tonight
    USC had a rock solid defense, among the top in the nation in scoring defense, however Mannion leads the nation in passing and OSU leads the nation in pass offense, but USC is among the national leaders in defensive pass interceptions, and passing yardage allowed.

    Something has to give here.
    I subscribe to the Bill Parcells theory that good defense stops good offense.

    OSU doesn't run the ball, they average 66 yards a game on the ground.
    USC is 15th in the entire nation in run defense.

    Mannion averages 50 (almost) passes a game.
    OSU averages 40 + points a game, but it's one thing to put up 50 spots against Hawaii and the Utah's of the world, Stanford held the Beaves to 12 last week, and Mannion put the ball up over 50 times.
    Funny what happens when you play a real defense.

    You would have to figure 55 + pass attempts tonight, Beavers ain't getting anything on the run, unless it's one or two of those quick hitters, and I don't see that happening.

    So, on the Beaver side of the ball, it's Mannion and Cook versus a rock solid USC D-backs and safeties.

    USC has a more balanced attack, Kessler ain't Mannion, not even close, but he's not crap by any means, and smart.

    Madden is their best option of offense to win for USC, he's good for almost 100 game, but it's not going to easy yardage, Beavers have a good run defense.

    Oregon's pass defense isn't as good as their run defense, but you would think USC would want to run the ball and play ball control/keep away from OSU and their all-world QB/WR combo, even though USC has two receivers who can both get it done.

    Been looking at this game and breaking it down for the last 90 minutes, to the point of micro-analysing it.

    52 points on the over/under total is so sharp.
    Beavers ain't getting their 40 point average, not happening tonight.
    They will get more than 12 that they got last week.
    Let's put OSU on 24
    USC should put up 28.
    I get 52 total points.

    Line is -4 Oregon State.
    The play might be USC plus the four.
    But that Reser is a tough place to go up to and win.

    Which brings me back to my opening statement.

    Interesting PAC-10 game tonight
  • Justin3587
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-12
    • 2566

    #2
    I like Oregon State -3.5, or at least that's what I saw it at last. If it's 4 now, I still like that as well. I didn't look at the stats, because I feel like this is more of a mental game than anything. I feel like USC is a football factory and they are 5-3. I don't think they have the motivation to go out there and play as well as they can. 5-3 is not the record they want to have right now, so I feel like they are thinkgin "play, for what?". Oregon State is on cloud 9 and I think they will come out a whole lot more motivated. I know it sounds stupid, but that's my logic.
    Comment
    • stevenash
      Moderator
      • 01-17-11
      • 65657

      #3
      ^
      It's not stupid, it's an angle, a way at looking at the game.

      I have gone from under, to over, back to under, to I don't phucking know now.

      I've gone from USC to OSU and back again myself
      Comment
      • t-wizzle
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-18-09
        • 38099

        #4
        Oregon State coming off a tough game with a physical Stanford team. USC is playing a lot better lately.
        Comment
        • Justin3587
          SBR MVP
          • 08-29-12
          • 2566

          #5
          Haha I agree, that happens to me quite often as well.
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65657

            #6
            ^
            USC does have all the better numbers except passing.
            Comment
            • Vinnie Paz
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-27-12
              • 12177

              #7
              Originally posted by t-wizzle
              Oregon State coming off a tough game with a physical Stanford team. USC is playing a lot better lately.
              they've responded well to coach O indeed

              Friday night same game action teaser for me:

              USC +10 & under 58 at -110 odds
              Comment
              • letsgo
                SBR MVP
                • 03-27-10
                • 2204

                #8
                I thought Oregon States run defense was bad?
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65657

                  #9
                  Originally posted by letsgo
                  I thought Oregon States run defense was bad?
                  Middle of the road
                  Comment
                  • thetrinity
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-25-11
                    • 22430

                    #10
                    under maybe ore st tt under
                    Comment
                    • Vegas39
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 09-22-11
                      • 30686

                      #11
                      Originally posted by stevenash
                      Middle of the road
                      35th in run defense
                      Comment
                      • Fettirooski
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 11-01-11
                        • 160

                        #12
                        Disagree that USC has nothing to play for. They have been playing their hearts out for Coach O ever since he took over. I think the quote from Reeser was "Its nice having a Coach that you can go to war with, that you would die for." Seriously. Orgeron is a player's coach and the players love this guy. They are playing for him so he will be in consideration for the job this offseason, and lets not forget, if USC has a kicker they beat Notre Dame no doubt. That makes them bowl eligible right now. Instead, they are playing to go bowling tonight and every kid in the country wants a free vacation and $350 spending money handed out in the bowl stipend. Trojans +4.
                        Comment
                        • vinhmen
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-05-11
                          • 446

                          #13
                          USC offense has sputtered lately so expecting them to put up 24 may be tough. Their best chance at cover might be the D slowing the OSU pass attack, so I'm going Under.
                          Comment
                          • Smoke
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-09-09
                            • 48111

                            #14
                            Steve don't bet it
                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65657

                              #15
                              ^
                              Haven't decided what to do yet

                              Smokey? Have you given thought as to what the SBR community has suggested and that you take a SBR vacation?
                              Comment
                              • Becel
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 12-14-08
                                • 139

                                #16
                                This is a classic live bet scenario. Which teem will dictate the outcome. USC's D or Oregon ST's O. I think I'll wait and watch the flow of the game in the first quarter and see if there is value for a live bet. Although I lean the under small right now and Oregon slightly more.

                                Its tough to put money on a team that can only muster 7 points of offense against Washington ST. Especially on the road. The line confuses me though I would have thought Oregon would have opened a touchdown or more. Maybe the line makers know more than I do. Anyhoo just my opinion and good luck.
                                Comment
                                • pavyracer
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 82839

                                  #17
                                  USC is garbage on the road. Expect a snooze fest with Oregon St winning 16-10.
                                  Comment
                                  • BMoreBird
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-26-12
                                    • 889

                                    #18
                                    Under
                                    Comment
                                    • Unwritten Law
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-31-13
                                      • 2532

                                      #19
                                      that's a splendid idea to live this game. Unless you already have a solid read.
                                      Comment
                                      • TonyTall
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-21-13
                                        • 3551

                                        #20
                                        usc great startes, no depth. they get tired in the 2nd half. usc +2 1h here
                                        Comment
                                        • Becel
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 12-14-08
                                          • 139

                                          #21
                                          Well I went and teased a soft unit on Oregon St +3 and u 58.5. I wouldn't recommend this though. College fb is so erratic. You never know if these kids will come to play. Its like I say watch the first quarter and see if there is value somewhere.

                                          In the meantime, I grabbed the over 193 (livebet) in the NBA Charlotte Cleveland game. They are running and gunning. Luvin the what should be easy money.
                                          Comment
                                          • ChalkyDog
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-02-11
                                            • 9598

                                            #22
                                            Nash, no joke, I appreciate you referring to this conference as the PAC-10.

                                            I loathe the PAC-12. I hate the teams we added. I hate the conference championship game. I hate the PAC-12 network. I hate that we can no longer have a true round robin schedule. I hate not being able to play everyone in our conference once in football and twice in basketball.

                                            Really miss the PAC10.
                                            Comment
                                            • ZIPPER HEAD
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-17-13
                                              • 2592

                                              #23
                                              Nash- I appreciate your post. It's posts like yours is what I'm looking for. Thanks!! I'm on the pink beavers!
                                              Comment
                                              • beermankirk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-17-09
                                                • 1512

                                                #24
                                                Fri 11/1 6021 C.Kessler pass completions over 19½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
                                                8:55PM 6022 C.Kessler pass completions under 19½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
                                                Fri 11/1 6023 C.Kessler passing yards over 244½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">+115
                                                8:55PM 6024 C.Kessler passing yards under 244½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-145
                                                Fri 11/1 6025 C.Kessler TD passes over 2½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+200
                                                8:55PM 6026 C.Kessler TD passes under 2½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-260
                                                Fri 11/1 6027 C.Kessler TD passes+INT's over 2½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_12" name="radiox" type="radio">+145
                                                8:55PM 6028 C.Kessler TD passes+INT's under 2½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_12" name="radiox" type="radio">-175
                                                Fri 11/1 6031 N.Agholor pass receptions over 4½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_13" name="radiox" type="radio">-135
                                                8:55PM 6032 N.Agholor pass receptions under 4½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_13" name="radiox" type="radio">+105
                                                Fri 11/1 6033 N.Agholor receiving yards over 70½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_14" name="radiox" type="radio">-110
                                                8:55PM 6034 N.Agholor receiving yards under 70½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_14" name="radiox" type="radio">-120
                                                Fri 11/1 6051 S.Mannion pass completions over 34½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_15" name="radiox" type="radio">-105
                                                8:55PM 6052 S.Mannion pass completions under 34½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_15" name="radiox" type="radio">-125
                                                Fri 11/1 6053 S.Mannion passing yards over 344½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_16" name="radiox" type="radio">-145
                                                8:55PM 6054 S.Mannion passing yards under 344½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_16" name="radiox" type="radio">+115
                                                Fri 11/1 6055 S.Mannion TD passes+INT's over 3½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">-155
                                                8:55PM 6056 S.Mannion TD passes+INT's under 3½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+125
                                                Fri 11/1 6059 B.Cooks pass receptions over 9½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_18" name="radiox" type="radio">-125
                                                8:55PM 6060 B.Cooks pass receptions under 9½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_18" name="radiox" type="radio">-105
                                                Fri 11/1 6061 B.Cooks receiving yards over 135½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_19" name="radiox" type="radio">+125
                                                8:55PM 6062 B.Cooks receiving yards under 135½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_19" name="radiox" type="radio">-155
                                                Fri 11/1 6063 B.Cooks rush+receiving yards over 129½ <input id="radiox" value="M1_20" name="radiox" type="radio">-170
                                                8:55PM 6064 B.Cooks rush+receiving yards under 129½ <input id="radiox" value="M2_20" name="radiox" type="radio">+140
                                                Fri 11/1 6071 S.Woods pass receptions over 5 <input id="radiox" value="M1_21" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
                                                8:55PM 6072 S.Woods pass receptions under 5 <input id="radiox" value="M2_21" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
                                                Comment
                                                • beermankirk
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-17-09
                                                  • 1512

                                                  #25
                                                  Lots of props on him to go with your thoughts here:


                                                  Mannion averages 50 (almost) passes a game.
                                                  OSU averages 40 + points a game, but it's one thing to put up 50 spots against Hawaii and the Utah's of the world, Stanford held the Beaves to 12 last week, and Mannion put the ball up over 50 times.
                                                  Funny what happens when you play a real defense.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vinnie Paz
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-27-12
                                                    • 12177

                                                    #26
                                                    Broken coverage results in wide open marquise lee . 7-0 USC
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fettirooski
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 11-01-11
                                                      • 160

                                                      #27
                                                      Nash- did you tail me or ride with your ole friend Smoke?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65657

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Fettirooski
                                                        Nash- did you tail me or ride with your ole friend Smoke?
                                                        Line jumped to 4.5
                                                        That extra .5 is gigantic.
                                                        Took the Trojan as bow-wows.

                                                        Game could go either way 2H


                                                        <small>USC at Oregon State</small>
                                                        Fri 11/1 313 USC <input id="editx" name="S1_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_132" name="altS1_132" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3½ -110</option><option value="1">+3 +103</option><option value="2">+2½ +115</option><option value="3">+4 -133</option><option value="4">+4½ -155</option><option value="5">+½ +130</option><option value="6">-½ +185</option><option value="8">+7 -185</option></select> <input id="editx" name="M1_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +165 <input id="editx" name="L1_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_132" name="altL1_132" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o27 -105</option><option value="1">o26½ -120</option><option value="2">o27½ +110</option><option value="3">o26 -124</option><option value="5">o25½ -127</option><option value="7">o25 -130</option></select> <input id="editx" name="E1_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o10½ -140 <input id="editx" name="E3_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u10½ +110
                                                        9:00PM 314 Oregon State <input id="editx" name="S2_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_132" name="altS2_132" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3½ -110</option><option value="1">-3 -123</option><option value="2">-2½ -135</option><option value="3">-4 +113</option><option value="4">-4½ +135</option><option value="5">-½ -150</option><option value="6">+½ -225</option><option value="8">-7 +160</option></select> <input id="editx" name="M2_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -190 <input id="editx" name="L2_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_132" name="altL2_132" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u27 -115</option><option value="1">u26½ +100</option><option value="2">u27½ -130</option><option value="3">u26 +104</option><option value="5">u25½ +107</option><option value="7">u25 +110</option></select> <input id="editx" name="E2_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o14½ -125 <input id="editx" name="E4_132" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u14½ -105
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65657

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                                                          Nash, no joke, I appreciate you referring to this conference as the PAC-10.

                                                          I loathe the PAC-12. I hate the teams we added. I hate the conference championship game. I hate the PAC-12 network. I hate that we can no longer have a true round robin schedule. I hate not being able to play everyone in our conference once in football and twice in basketball.

                                                          Really miss the PAC10.
                                                          Yep, and there are tons more people like me and you that feel this way.

                                                          I cringe every time I hear PAC-12, and I am an old school UCONN Big East guy
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TonyTall
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-21-13
                                                            • 3551

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by TonyTall
                                                            usc great startes, no depth. they get tired in the 2nd half. usc +2 1h here
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevenash
                                                              Moderator
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 65657

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by TonyTall
                                                              OK, OK, nice call.

                                                              (blowhard) lol

                                                              nice hit dude.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Fettirooski
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 11-01-11
                                                                • 160

                                                                #32
                                                                Yeah nice hit, even tho I disagreed with your angle.

                                                                I still like my Trojans+4 and Trojans+5.5
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TonyTall
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-21-13
                                                                  • 3551

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                  OK, OK, nice call.

                                                                  (blowhard) lol

                                                                  nice hit dude.

                                                                  good win 2
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dv_rasnake
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 10-10-13
                                                                    • 97

                                                                    #34
                                                                    cashed on usc and the under nice day
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    Search
                                                                    Collapse
                                                                    SBR Contests
                                                                    Collapse
                                                                    Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                    Collapse
                                                                    Working...