World Chess Championship - Big line adjustment

[sando]

The Chess belt is up for grabs in a couple weeks as defending champ Viswanathan Anand defends against Norwegian 22 yr. old wonder kid and the worlds #1 ranked player, Magnus Carlsen.

Yesterday, at pinnacle, Carlsen was listed as the -400 favorite, and today he's down to -260. Curious as to what size bets they are taking on this, and what prompted the sudden odds drop (was the line that bad?). Is this one of those novelty offerings with a few hundred max before adjustments, or are they taking 1k+ bets on this? -

This kid was absolutely crushing people at 8 years old, a GM by 13, a genuine 1 in a million prodigy in every sense of the word...

[sbrhedge]

Carlsen was listed as the -400 favorite, and today he's down to -260. Curious as to what size bets they are taking on this, and what prompted the sudden odds drop (was the line that bad?). Is this one of those novelty offerings with a few hundred max before adjustments, or are they taking 1k+ bets on this? -

Carlsen had a hard time taking out people like Radjabov, and took 90+ moves against Karjakin. Anand played halfway-decently against Karjakin on their last go arounds, although he's been slipping a touch against these other guys.

I think that's why the line was dropping - Carlsen has a habit of lagging and doing too many moves to take out his opponents. Anand pushes really fast or dumps (I don't know what they fookin terminology is, so chess guys whatever you say)

Carlsen -400 was way too high ... and not because he's playing Anand. it's now @ -350 ... my 2 cents.

[ChalkyDog]

Hey dog, what's your ranking? I'm around 1600-1700 these days, don't play as often as I used to (peaked at around 1800), but I get the feeling your out of my league...? 1900-2100?

I peaked right at the "expert" level. Got into the 2000's. Beat a lot of guys while I was in school ranked as high as 2400, as I would play them often. In tournament setting I can't beat an IM or a GM obviously. I used to be able to at least hang for a while with a lot of the IM's because my openings are pretty strong. Theirs are just stronger and by midgame, my position is just bad enough for them to get an advantage.

I would say the biggest issue I run into against those top guys are a disadvantage around move 30-40 where they have an obvious pawn advantage on the queen side. Give anyone like an IM that kind of advantage, and it's over. I'm stubborn though, I rarely resign until it's painfully obvious.

Anyway, I fell back into the u2000's, and haven't played in a legit tournament in years. Last one I played in was the open in Vegas, played in the open section, got my ass kicked, but got my entry fee back via the side room.

There is always some group of black dudes in there trying to hustle. I would take them for a lot more when I was a kid, now not so much - they can smell me a mile away.

[sando]

I peaked right at the "expert" level. Got into the 2000's. Beat a lot of guys while I was in school ranked as high as 2400, as I would play them often. In tournament setting I can't beat an IM or a GM obviously. I used to be able to at least hang for a while with a lot of the IM's because my openings are pretty strong. Theirs are just stronger and by midgame, my position is just bad enough for them to get an advantage.

I would say the biggest issue I run into against those top guys are a disadvantage around move 30-40 where they have an obvious pawn advantage on the queen side. Give anyone like an IM that kind of advantage, and it's over. I'm stubborn though, I rarely resign until it's painfully obvious.

Anyway, I fell back into the u2000's, and haven't played in a legit tournament in years. Last one I played in was the open in Vegas, played in the open section, got my ass kicked, but got my entry fee back via the side room.

There is always some group of black dudes in there trying to hustle. I would take them for a lot more when I was a kid, now not so much - they can smell me a mile away.

Damn as I expected your out of my league, nice one. There's probably no point us playing, although I have a nasty king's gambit with white haha

[ChalkyDog]

You need to write a bio pal

I want to, sadly a large part of my adult life at this point would have to be redacted due to the nature of laws in this great US of A.

[bubblebuttluv]

Bump

5Dimes released the line for the match and it says it takes place at 4:30 AM this morning.

Carlsen is at -390 and Anand is at +320.

I didn't realize this thing could take days to play out:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/world-chess-championship-viswanathan-anand-takes-on-magnus-carlsen-today/articleshow/25469177.cms

[pinnacle420]

Bump

5Dimes released the line for the match and it says it takes place at 4:30 AM this morning.

Carlsen is at -390 and Anand is at +320.

I didn't realize this thing could take days to play out:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/25469177.cms

This line is way to high to bet on at -390 too much bad shit can happen

[Cookie Monster]

First game drawn. Moral victory for Anand, with black pieces, forcing a repetition in just 16 moves. As expected, Carlsen played his usual solid offbeat opening, aiming for a long game. Anand opted for a Grünfeld defense. An inaccuracy by Carlsen let Anand grab an small advantage, but he opted for the quick draw instead of pressing. Disappointing game for the public. Many servers (even the official one) were down due to the heavy load of millions of players trying to watch the live video.

I did not notice line was up to +320, it is a lot of value for Anand. My estimated line is around +250.

[sweep]

this is fukkin great

[broadway6]

I forgot to TiVo

[Cookie Monster]

Second game ongoing. Anand chose e4, and Carlsen countered with a Caro-Kann. Small surprise, as he had been playing e5 more often, willing to enter into Ruy Lopez (usually var. Berlin or Breyer). Caro Kann is a drawish defense, black gets a solid position, white gets a spacial advantage. After 15 moves, we are still on book, and the character of position is the usual Caro Kann. My best guess, Anand will try to press without forcing things, so draw is most likely.

[Cookie Monster]

Another easy draw. Anand chose to exchange queens in move 16, instead of trying to press with Qg4. So, an equal endgame was reached, and drawn in 24 moves. Another disappointing game. Tomorrow is a rest day.

[smitch124]

Yes they've made 40 moves in 2 games, time to rest.

[BennyBigNuts]

Aren't those kind of matches a best of 3 or 5 series?

[C-Gold]

This kid was absolutely crushing people at 8 years old, a GM by 13, a genuine 1 in a million prodigy in every sense of the word...

He has an amazing photographic type memory where he can play historical games right there in his head. I mean all those top players are brilliant but this kid might take the cake.

Great thread, I like chess too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dumb Q. Is every match here going to end in draw?

[bubblebuttluv]

Aren't those kind of matches a best of 3 or 5 series?

best of 12

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-11-09/news/43855492_1_viswanathan-anand-unudurti-peter-leko

[Cookie Monster]

Dumb Q. Is every match here going to end in draw?

At normal GM level, about 60% of games end in draws. At world championship level, maybe close to 70%. Last WCH Anand-Gelfand 2012 went 1-1-10. Previous one, Anand-Topalov 2010 was 3-2-7. Anand-Kraminik 2008 was 3-1-7 (12th game not needed).

[thetrinity]

chess way too sophisticated for 99.9% of sbr

[RealSlimShady]

CookieMonster, what's your chess rating?

[BriGuy]

I would say the biggest issue I run into against those top guys are a disadvantage around move 30-40 where they have an obvious pawn advantage on the queen side. Give anyone like an IM that kind of advantage, and it's over. I'm stubborn though, I rarely resign until it's painfully obvious.

Well no shit, Sherlock, anyone who has a pawn advantage on the queen side around move 30-40 has totally fuckin' PWNED their weak ass opponent! I can't believe you walked into that!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

At normal GM level, about 60% of games end in draws. At world championship level, maybe close to 70%. Last WCH Anand-Gelfand 2012 went 1-1-10. Previous one, Anand-Topalov 2010 was 3-2-7. Anand-Kraminik 2008 was 3-1-7 (12th game not needed).

Cool, man, thx. I wonder if there's defensive strategy such that a guy could bring his Loss % down to almost zero. I could see the Indian closing the door on the Norwegian, just to spit him. Could see it ending: 2 Anand wins, 10 draws and then Anand flipping the kid off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cool, man, thx. I wonder if there's defensive strategy such that a guy could bring his Loss % down to almost zero. I could see the Indian closing the door on the Norwegian, just to spite him. Could see it ending: 2 Anand wins, 10 draws and then Anand flipping the kid off.

edit

[ChalkyDog]

Damn as I expected your out of my league, nice one. There's probably no point us playing, although I have a nasty king's gambit with white haha

Just went back to my old High School about 9 months ago, visited the chess team, got beaten twice by guys rated right around 1800 unofficially. Both under 1400 officially. I am not out of anyone's league who enjoy playing chess. I do dumb shit to see what happens these days. In the words of the great las vegas chess-hustler of the late 90's "Sack a piece, man!"

Big fan of Frank Marshall's game. Reading a book about him is what really got me going.

Well no shit, Sherlock, anyone who has a pawn advantage on the queen side around move 30-40 has totally fuckin' PWNED their weak ass opponent! I can't believe you walked into that!

It's a product of the my queen pawn orientation on both sides.

I have a pawn advantage on the king side, but it isn't worth nearly as much.

The amount of hours I have spent during my life trying to figure out how to deal with this is far too high to admit. This thread sent me back into thinking about it, the whole isolated queen pawn, unreal.

I should give up gambling and get back into chess. Much more healthy than screaming at teenagers because they backdoored on a prayer.

[byronbb]

chess way too sophisticated for 99.9% of sbr

So is winning at sportsbetting.

[Cookie Monster]

Cool, man, thx. I wonder if there's defensive strategy such that a guy could bring his Loss % down to almost zero. I could see the Indian closing the door on the Norwegian, just to spit him. Could see it ending: 2 Anand wins, 10 draws and then Anand flipping the kid off.

With white, it is fairly easy to get drawish positions. If forced to win, black may counter with a risky defense (Dutch, Alekhine, etc) but such lines are widely considered inferior for black, so often end taking a draw in a bad position, or losing outright. In a match, most players are eager to take a draw with black, and try to win with white. Of course, it is not so easy to get draws as black. There are solid defenses as the Caro-Kann, with fairly high draw%, but white has a small advantage all the way and can try press for a win a long time with little risk. Not everyone is Karpov, enjoying to defend such positions.


Your example of 2-0-10 is hard to achieve, it would need Anand to win 12th game on a 1-0-10 match (of course, he would offer a draw even with big advantage); else, the match would end 2-0-9 after the 11th game.

CookieMonster, what's your chess rating?

I had over 2100 rating 20 years ago, and retired of competition. I am still close to chess as tournament director and arbiter, but my current level should be closer to 2000. I have not played a serious game for many years, just friendly blitzes, and I make too many blunders.

[sando]

I would like to learn how to play chess professionally)

Just play chess and read a book or two. You will better with every game (substantially so if you actually review your games after they have ended or better yet run them through a chess program).

Stay away from the shitty social sites and stick to somewhere like Chess.com or Chess Cube

[RealSlimShady]

I would like to learn how to play chess professionally)

Very few make a living at chess.

[The Giant]

Are there any sites where you can play chess for money?

....or would it somehow be manipulated by bots?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cookie, I don't know squat about chess. Props to u guys who understand it. Can we watch the match live?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Game 1 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5sQR-6WCFA

[vyomguy]

I will take Anand +320

Too much pressure on Carlsen.

[smitch124]

Game 1 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5sQR-6WCFA

After watching that video I wondered, and the narrator didn't seem to touch on it, which of the 2, if either, was in an inferior position enough to go for a draw in that position. I, as a very amateur player couldn't see an advantage for either. Was this more the 2 saying early, ok lets get our feet wet with a draw and go from there?

[Cookie Monster]

You can watch live video with comments at official site: http://chennai2013.fide.com/

Games start 4:30 AM EST.

[sando]

Are there any sites where you can play chess for money?

....or would it somehow be manipulated by bots?

There are Giant but 90% hustlers. I tried once, played against a guy - 1400 ranking. Played 3 games and in theory I should have won every game, however he destroyed me, got hustled. Guys deliberately will manipulate their rankings. Maybe have an IM getting around under a 1450 ranking, it's brutal...