The ultimate contest: The +EV crowd v. The best of the rest

[fearless]

Let's settle this once and for all. Take the best of the +EV crowd bettors v. some of the best of the rest of the cappers (those don't rely on +EV) for the second half of the NBA season plus one whole MLB season.

Two teams: +EV bettors +250 v. The best of the rest -300

This would be the greatest competition ever. Who wants to do it?

[fiveteamer]

Let me help you out here.

This will not be 'big enough of a sample size"

built in excuse for any math guy.

god bless.

[durito]

You one find a single advantage player that has any interest in such nonsense. For good reason too.

[RogueJuror]

lol at this idea

[donjuan]

Two words: opportunity cost

The use of "+EV" there is highly amusing though. Thanks for the laughs.

[fearless]

Let me help you out here.

This will not be 'big enough of a sample size"

built in excuse for any math guy.

god bless.

I knew it. Nine months isn't long enough.

[donjuan]

I knew it. Nine months isn't long enough.

No, at that point locking up your money isn't worth it (even ignoring the time considerations). Same reason I almost never bet futures at the beginning of a season.

[fearless]

No, at that point locking up your money isn't worth it (even ignoring the time considerations). Same reason I almost never bet futures at the beginning of a season.

I'm unignoring you for this thread. This is simply a matter of posting your picks in a thread. This is your chance to prove yourself. Or maybe you'll learn that you're wrong. Could that happen? Maybe you'll prove to everyone that you're right. Who knows?

It'd be a great learning experience for everyone.

[mmike032]

never happen but would be interesting.

[donjuan]

I'm unignoring you for this thread. This is simply a matter of posting your picks in a thread. This is your chance to prove yourself. Or maybe you'll learn that you're wrong. Could that happen? Maybe you'll prove to everyone that you're right. Who knows?

It'd be a great learning experience for everyone.

Learn I'm wrong about what, exactly?

[daggerkobe]

Let me put it this way.

We cant win even if we go 100-50 because the Ev snobs will claim they went 140-10 and we should take their word for it cause they wont post any picks.

[fearless]

Learn I'm wrong about what, exactly?

Learn you're wrong about your approach to handicapping. This could be a great learning experience for everyone.

Also, you could prove to the skeptics that you're right once and for all. You could always point to the contest in the future and say, "Look the +EV bettors proved their dominance once and for all." Everyone would shut up then, believe me.

[fiveteamer]

donjuan, have a drink guy. you are wound up so f'king tight.

donjaun

dorito

rjt721

all bitter, sour, ball busting individuals who need to lighten up a bit.

life is good, even when it sucks.

god bless.

[fearless]

Let me put it this way.

We cant win even if we go 100-50 because the Ev snobs will claim they went 140-10 and we should take their word for it cause they wont post any picks.

This would be a contest where you have to post your picks pregame of course.

[donjuan]

Learn you're wrong about your approach to handicapping. This could be a great learning experience for everyone.

So 9 months would somehow teach me more than the multiple years with thousands of bets I already have?

Also, you could prove to the skeptics that you're right once and for all. You could always point to the contest in the future and say, "Look the +EV proved their dominance once and for all." Everyone would shut up then, believe me.

You can't win long-term unless your bets have +EV. Even if you find some angle that works and don't understand the math, your bets still have to have +EV to be a long term winner.

[donjuan]

donjuan, have a drink guy. you are wound up so f'king tight.

I tend to actually go out and drink with friends rather than drinking in front of a computer.

[daggerkobe]

This would be a contest where you have to post your picks pregame of course.

Then forget it.

[fiveteamer]

I tend to actually go out and drink with friends rather than drinking in front of a computer.

Well then you should do that.

god bless.

[fearless]

Then forget it.

Why? It's not a contest without that.

[donjuan]

Well then you should do that.

That's the plan. It's only 8:20 here.

[pico]

waste of time

[hhsilver]

What does +EV mean? Is it expected value of probability theory? If so, how does one know what the probability of an event is in order to compute EV?

[pavyracer]

+EV = I can't post a pick to save my life so I will hide behind this to show I'm cool

[flyingillini]

What does +EV mean? Is it expected value of probability theory? If so, how does one know what the probability of an event is in order to compute EV?

[poker_dummy101]

I hope everyone that makes a bet thinks its +EV, not just the +EV guys. lolol

[Mudcat]

I gotta say, I love the concept. Of all the challenges that pop up around here, I might pay attention to that one.

[reno cool]

If you have enough people making picks, that would be long enough to be interesting. But what are you trying to prove? That Venditto and Onthewhat are great handicappers?

[hhsilver]

What does +EV mean? Is it expected value of probability theory? If so, how does one know what the probability of an event is in order to compute EV?

I'll ask again. I really don't understand the use of this term all over the forums.

Is EV the same as expected value????

We know a coin flip at -110, -110 has negative expected value. BUT, if I have some info that makes me believe that the probability of heads is .65, I guess I can make a +EV bet. And if you have other reasons for thinking tails has a prob of .72, then you can also be a +EV bettor.

What am I missing?

[reno cool]

I'll ask again. I really don't understand the use of this term all over the forums.

Is EV the same as expected value????

We know a coin flip at -110, -110 has negative expected value. BUT, if I have some info that makes me believe that the probability of heads is .65, I guess I can make a +EV bet. And if you have other reasons for thinking tails has a prob of .72, then you can also be a +EV bettor.

What am I missing?

you're right. Fearless' use of the word is misleading. There are people here that don't look at gambling through that perspective, hence the debate.

[fearless]

I gotta say, I love the concept. Of all the challenges that pop up around here, I might pay attention to that one.

I think it would be the most interesting contest possible also.