Kaepernick u21.5 completions tonight (heres why)

[TonyTall]

last year vs seattle in a close game 14 for 23

last year vs seattle where they were blown out 19 for 36

i dont expect a blowout tonight. both teams will run the ball a lot. i think this has a very high chance of hitting. should finish with around 17 completions on 28 attempts. seattle has a great secondary as well. line should really be o/u 18



kaep u21.5 (-115)

[DrStale]

Last years numbers dont mean much. He didnt have the completions because he was running all the time as teams had not adapted to his feet. They are more prepared this year and thus he will throw more. See last week's game for an example. BOL.

[TonyTall]

disagree doc

last year kaep ripped green bay offense for like 180 rushing yards. nfl record i think. they did everything to stop him from running last week, thus he had a big day throwing against a pretty weak secondary at home. now he goes to the most hostile enviroment in the nfl against a team that uses the clock a lot. i would never take the over 21.5 here. no way

[MickeyMan]

The first game vs Seattle last year kaep didn't play that was smith

[ImGone]

Look at the weather.

[TonyTall]

yep the weather, rainy and breezy. kaepernick is not a pocket QB, linesmakers set this number high for the public.

[Louisvillekid1]

last year vs seattle in a close game 14 for 23

last year vs seattle where they were blown out 19 for 36

i dont expect a blowout tonight. both teams will run the ball a lot. i think this has a very high chance of hitting. should finish with around 17 completions on 28 attempts. seattle has a great secondary as well. line should really be o/u 18



kaep u21.5 (-115)

The first game vs Seattle last year kaep didn't play that was smith

[TonyTall]

ok my bad it was alex smith. same difference. kaepernicks last 11 games other than last week. last week gb super determined not to get beaten on the ground

17-31
16-21
16-28
16-27
19-36
14-25
18-23
21-23
16-25
16-23
11-27

fade away

[Louisvillekid1]

I like the play even still

[Killer_Demo]

Dont fade Kap the kid from Turlock, CA

[TonyTall]

I like the play even still

its the right play. pete carroll wont do what GB did last week he doesnt need too. was a total outlier last week, and kaep proved he can shred a team if they put 8 in the box. i predict 17-28 with that noise. will be a great game to watch

[TonyTall]

Dont fade Kap the kid from Turlock, CA

not a fade on him. if i was going to fade him id take seattle ml

[dartmouthemcee]

its 20.5 at bovada currently

[TonyTall]

bookmaker has 21.5........only good reason to have bm, to fade public props

[terpkeg]

"public" doesn't have access to last years numbers?

[TonyTall]

no but public loves overs in props. look at the superbowl nearly every single prop moves upwards from its open. also look at bodog, public pushes nearly all the props up.

[wacked]

As of right now, I've seen it at 20.5, 21 and 21.5 from -115 to -120 across multiple books.

[terpkeg]

no but public loves overs in props. look at the superbowl nearly every single prop moves upwards from its open. also look at bodog, public pushes nearly all the props up.

Maybe your right here, but hard for me to think this is a public play when bovada has 20.5. I think better explanation for number is a offensive philosophy change for the Niners and the public hasn't caught on to it yet.

We'll see.

[wacked]

Maybe your right here, but hard for me to think this is a public play when bovada has 20.5. I think better explanation for number is a offensive philosophy change for the Niners and the public hasn't caught on to it yet.

We'll see.

1 game is not enough to say the 49ers have an offensive philosophy change.

[terpkeg]

1 game is not enough to say the 49ers have an offensive philosophy change.

I know... but it seemed unusual given the last years numbers that the o/u be set in the 20's. Maybe whoever is setting the number has a reason to set it that high beyond public on Sunday night will play overs. The squarest players out there don't play props. The public is much more sophisticated than they once were. SBR forum is the public.

[TonyTall]

i agree that the public is more sophisticated then it was like a decade ago, human nature says you dont want to take a prop under during a big game. if this was a regular game snuck into the middle of the day with low prop volume i think it would have been o/u19......still could go over he has 2 completions early

[dartmouthemcee]

that rain will help

[TonyTall]

rain or no rain i need seattle to pick up some fukin first downs or the SF offense will have the ball all night. fuk

[TonyTall]

halftime

6-14

louder fans louder

[wacked]

halftime

6-14

louder fans louder

Yeah, it's super loud in Qwest Field. Those fans are some of the smartest ones too. They know to shut the F up when their team is on offense and to get so super loud it hurts when their team is on defense. I used to have season tix and all I can say is you are tired and hurting just from being there when it's over... it is LOUD.

[gauchojake]

Dont fade Kap the kid from Turlock, CA

you love the Central Valley that's for sure.

[TonyTall]

12-25

5 minutes left

[SteveRyan]

Nice edge. Solid.

[jjgold]

He looked horrific
Never know could of been fluke year

Good call Talls