I had a crappy start to the year last week, looking to bounce back. A lot of my logic is in my Week 2 early leans thread.
San Diego +7.5
Dallas +3
San Fran +3 and I will probably also add money line
Carolina -3
Denver/Giants over 55
Denver -4.5
Green Bay/Baltimore Teaser
San Diego Charters +7.5 - The Eagles had an impressive start to the Chip Kelly Era last week. You are going to have the Chip Kelly bandwagon, MNF watchers, and people looking to fade west coast teams playing east coast at 1 PM. All of that excitement for the Eagles heavily shaded this line.
I am thinking the Eagles might win 28-24. The game could be higher scoring but for some reason that score pops in my head.
One reason I really like San Diego is that the Eagles are a MNF DOG that won outright. Teams in that scenario that are favored the following week have an abysmal ATS record. SD is sort of an unknown team, a 7-9 West Coast last year. San Diego covers this spread 4 out of 5 times and I think they have a shot to win this game. Vick and the eagles are turnover prone - He had a pick 6 last week and the team led the NFC in turnovers last year. River had a bad year last year but he had an injured RB and a weak line and turned the ball over too much. The price for the Chargers is right and I love that you get the hook on 7.
Dallas +3.
I picked Dallas to make the playoffs this year, for that to happen they have to win these kinds of games.
Jason Garret was 2-0 vs Andy Reid last year.
Dallas had a tough road schedule last year and was still good on the road, they will need that in KC.
Dallas was giving up big plays and turnovers last week, Alex Smith is a much different game manager QB than Eli.
I think Dallas wins outright, giving me the +3 safety is icing on the cake.
San Fran +3
I picked SF to have the #1 record in the NFC, for that to happen they have to win games like this.
Kaepernick looks much much better than the Russell Wilson game manager at this point.
49ers offensive line is much better.
Seattle's front 7 was unimpressive vs Carolina's O-line last week
Seattle's defense has injuries
Both defenses are good but it's a lot harder to stop Kaep than RW.
Pete Carrol is good at spotting talent, but Harbaugh is a much better in game coach.
Playing in a loud Sea stadium is hard, but I think SF will be up to the task and win outright and prove they are the team to beat.
Carolina -3
I like the matchup.
Carolina's defense in particular the front 7 looked good - you want to stop Buffalo's run and big offensive line.
Carolina has good pass rush to keep heat on EJ, I am not fearful of Buffalo's pass attack.
Cam Newton is experienced and way better than EJ at this point.
Buffalo has a good D-Line, but Carolina has a good O-Line that outplayed Seattle last week.
I liked what I saw from Carolina last week. They should have beat Seattle except Deangelo Williams fumbled at the 6 yard line with 5 min left in the game.
I think Carolina wins this game, better QB, and they have a favorable match ups.
Denver -4.5
Neither team should get too much pressure on the other team's QB. There should be lots of passing yards, and scoring. I don't care if the total is 55, one team should get 30+-40 and the other team should get at least high 20's. If the final was 30-27 then I'd say that I was a little surprised there wasn't more scoring.
I picked Denver to win the super bowl. Peyton should have his way with the Giants secondary. Giants probably lose by 6 or 7 or more.
GB/Balt teaser
Green Bay played well for a losing team last week, they win at home vs RG3 who didn't play well last week. Baltimore is not losing at home to Cleveland. They got Peyton Manning'ed last week but Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning. Both teams win and I am confident of it.
Leans I am not taking.
I didn't take Jets +12
I am not taking TB +3.5 Looks like a sucker bet but I'll pass on betting on Freeman over Brees.
I am not taking Rams +5.5. Falcons still probably win, I wish I got it earlier in the week at 7. I want to watch this game.
I am not taking Bears -6.5. Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFC but the Trestman offense looked too complicated for Cutler last week and they didn't stretch the field at all. I do think the Bears win and probably cover but I will let them work that offense out a little bit. I'd love to fade Christian Ponder but I don't have to bet on every game.
GL
San Diego +7.5
Dallas +3
San Fran +3 and I will probably also add money line
Carolina -3
Denver/Giants over 55
Denver -4.5
Green Bay/Baltimore Teaser
San Diego Charters +7.5 - The Eagles had an impressive start to the Chip Kelly Era last week. You are going to have the Chip Kelly bandwagon, MNF watchers, and people looking to fade west coast teams playing east coast at 1 PM. All of that excitement for the Eagles heavily shaded this line.
I am thinking the Eagles might win 28-24. The game could be higher scoring but for some reason that score pops in my head.
One reason I really like San Diego is that the Eagles are a MNF DOG that won outright. Teams in that scenario that are favored the following week have an abysmal ATS record. SD is sort of an unknown team, a 7-9 West Coast last year. San Diego covers this spread 4 out of 5 times and I think they have a shot to win this game. Vick and the eagles are turnover prone - He had a pick 6 last week and the team led the NFC in turnovers last year. River had a bad year last year but he had an injured RB and a weak line and turned the ball over too much. The price for the Chargers is right and I love that you get the hook on 7.
Dallas +3.
I picked Dallas to make the playoffs this year, for that to happen they have to win these kinds of games.
Jason Garret was 2-0 vs Andy Reid last year.
Dallas had a tough road schedule last year and was still good on the road, they will need that in KC.
Dallas was giving up big plays and turnovers last week, Alex Smith is a much different game manager QB than Eli.
I think Dallas wins outright, giving me the +3 safety is icing on the cake.
San Fran +3
I picked SF to have the #1 record in the NFC, for that to happen they have to win games like this.
Kaepernick looks much much better than the Russell Wilson game manager at this point.
49ers offensive line is much better.
Seattle's front 7 was unimpressive vs Carolina's O-line last week
Seattle's defense has injuries
Both defenses are good but it's a lot harder to stop Kaep than RW.
Pete Carrol is good at spotting talent, but Harbaugh is a much better in game coach.
Playing in a loud Sea stadium is hard, but I think SF will be up to the task and win outright and prove they are the team to beat.
Carolina -3
I like the matchup.
Carolina's defense in particular the front 7 looked good - you want to stop Buffalo's run and big offensive line.
Carolina has good pass rush to keep heat on EJ, I am not fearful of Buffalo's pass attack.
Cam Newton is experienced and way better than EJ at this point.
Buffalo has a good D-Line, but Carolina has a good O-Line that outplayed Seattle last week.
I liked what I saw from Carolina last week. They should have beat Seattle except Deangelo Williams fumbled at the 6 yard line with 5 min left in the game.
I think Carolina wins this game, better QB, and they have a favorable match ups.
Denver -4.5
Neither team should get too much pressure on the other team's QB. There should be lots of passing yards, and scoring. I don't care if the total is 55, one team should get 30+-40 and the other team should get at least high 20's. If the final was 30-27 then I'd say that I was a little surprised there wasn't more scoring.
I picked Denver to win the super bowl. Peyton should have his way with the Giants secondary. Giants probably lose by 6 or 7 or more.
GB/Balt teaser
Green Bay played well for a losing team last week, they win at home vs RG3 who didn't play well last week. Baltimore is not losing at home to Cleveland. They got Peyton Manning'ed last week but Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning. Both teams win and I am confident of it.
Leans I am not taking.
I didn't take Jets +12
I am not taking TB +3.5 Looks like a sucker bet but I'll pass on betting on Freeman over Brees.
I am not taking Rams +5.5. Falcons still probably win, I wish I got it earlier in the week at 7. I want to watch this game.
I am not taking Bears -6.5. Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFC but the Trestman offense looked too complicated for Cutler last week and they didn't stretch the field at all. I do think the Bears win and probably cover but I will let them work that offense out a little bit. I'd love to fade Christian Ponder but I don't have to bet on every game.
GL
