quick betting strategy question?

[redsoxfreak91]

I haven't tried it before but was just messing around with last weeks numbers and it worked. If you tease every game on both teams (i.e. tease the redskins +13.5 and packers -1.5) would you be profitable? It seems way to easy but last week you would've been up 20%.

[redsoxfreak91]

guys can i please get a response. I think that I'm going to try it today.

[Boner_18]

You did it man. You found the golden ticket. Proceed.

[Deol]

I think in the long run you will end up being down but don't have the statistics too prove it.

[Smoke]

Can anyone tell me how it wasn't unanimous?

Unflagginrizl

[redsoxfreak91]

its 10 to win 8.70 so you only have to be within 6 points of the mean 55% of the time, which I believe statistically the standard deviation of 6 points from the mean will give you a positive net present value, and you will be in the green

[TonyTall]

redsox that wont work. c'mon man

[redsoxfreak91]

redsox that wont work. c'mon man

I'm not saying it will but I'm just trying for someone to prove that it wont work. I can't prove it, however i haven't really tried that hard honestly, but quick math in my head says it should add up. Can someone just give me facts please...

[chilidog]

Just realize that the books aren't going to knowingly offer a bet that they won't make money on. Teasing both sides of the game isn't something new, and it will fail. It doesn't mean anything just because it won on a given day - backtest it even further and you'll find that you'll lose money.

[redsoxfreak91]

Just realize that the books aren't going to knowingly offer a bet that they won't make money on. Teasing both sides of the game isn't something new, and it will fail. It doesn't mean anything just because it won on a given day - backtest it even further and you'll find that you'll lose money.

I agree, and every time i come across something like this the probability of long term success isn't positive. With this however, the probability of hitting over 55% of the time is greater than losing more than 45% of the time.

[redsoxfreak91]

also i believe this only work for the nfl...college lines are too variable whereas the nfl is extremely balanced and closer games are more prominent

[redsoxfreak91]

its like a butterfly spread in hedging option contracts. I believe that low variability creates an arbitrage opportunity for consistent small profit.

[Kap Kapperson]

with all these posts, you could have at least back-tested last week and provided results.

[Boner_18]

its like a butterfly spread in hedging option contracts. I believe that low variability creates an arbitrage opportunity for consistent small profit.

I'd love to counterparty your options.

[chilidog]

I agree, and every time i come across something like this the probability of long term success isn't positive. With this however, the probability of hitting over 55% of the time is greater than losing more than 45% of the time.

It's your money, man... do what you want. Maybe just drive to a part of town where homeless people hang out and give it to them though?

Seriously, if teasing both sides of the game were profitable, books wouldn't let you do it. We would all be doing it if it worked.

[redsoxfreak91]

with all these posts, you could have at least back-tested last week and provided results.

last week it was 10-5 up 25%

[Kap Kapperson]

We'll follow the numbers again this week and see where we're at!

[pologq]

i tried this for a week or two when i first started betting in 1998, i lost. i thought teasing was the best thing ever and it is exactly what the name implies, a tease for an easy win.

[Deol]

NE, WASH, PHI, IND would all be losers 6 - 4 so far this week after the morning games I think.

[Louisvillekid1]

Waste of time and $