Super Bowl prop bets you can still make today

[Justin7]

Every year, I bet my entire bankroll on Super Bowl props. You bet the good stuff early, and the "No" stuff late with whatever you have left.

1 hour before game time, look for these props:
"Will XXX score a TD?" Take the no. You can price these individually, but the value is almost always on the no.

"Will the game go to overtime?" Take the no. Don't be afraid to lay -1400.

"Will the game be won by exactly 3 points?" Take the no. -700, no problem!

"Will xxxx happen?" Anything where you are laying -600 or more on the no probably has value. Price it yourself... But there will be so much value on big-juice items today, it's easy to safely spread your bank on it. If you're going to bet these bridge jumpers, MAKE SURE you spread them around. Don't bet more than 4% of your bank on any one play.

[BeatTheJerk]

I don't know your a bright guy Justin7, but this sounds like a terrible idea to bet an entire bankroll on props regardless what the prices are, just my take.

[Panic]

I couldnt do that, Justin. I could never lay those kind of odds on that many prop bets. If one hits, you are fvcked. It will take all the money you won plus some. I know the probablity is highly in your favor to win, but lets take a look at the 3 point prop. The Patriots won all 3 of their Super bowls by exactly 3 points. Dangerous shit to do.

[Justin7]

I don't know your a bright guy Justin7, but this sounds like a terrible idea to bet an entire bankroll on props regardless what the prices are, just my take.

I have over 100 unique bets before today. Some have a minimal correlation to the side/total, but it is well within "proper money management" risks.

I think nearly every pro with access to Vegas numbers bets all available cash on props until they blow past 1-2 million.

[Panic]

And the Giants just won by 3 points last year.

[Justin7]

And the Giants just won by 3 points last year.

In this matchup, what do you make the fair price for the "3-point" prop?

Public money hate laying heavy odds. Public money hates rooting for a boring game with no TDs. If you're drinking beer and watching the game, do you want to root for a 6-0 score? Or for everyone scoring like crazy?

If the fair odds are -700 and I can get it at -600, I have a huge edge. My only problem at that point is limits, not risk management.

[patsfan2727]

I don't get it, for every 6 bets you make, you have to hit 5 out of them just to break even? I also don't understand how there is value betting against something (win by 3 points) that has happened so frequently?
the ONLY solid big chalk play that I see on the board today is Pitt +7.5 -750
and I still wouldnt take it

[Panic]

In this matchup, what do you make the fair price for the "3-point" prop?

Public money hate laying heavy odds. Public money hates rooting for a boring game with no TDs. If you're drinking beer and watching the game, do you want to root for a 6-0 score? Or for everyone scoring like crazy?

If the fair odds are -700 and I can get it at -600, I have a huge edge. My only problem at that point is limits, not risk management.

I'm with ya, but 4 outta of the last 7 Super Bowls have been decided by exactly 3 points so laying-700, or even -600, is not a bet I would make. Recent history has shown it is very possible and even more recently, very probable. Most players would agree Steelers ML/Cards +7 are the plays. So that tells me most players think the # will land between 1 and 6 for a Steeler victory. No way I take a prop at -700 that has one of those #'s.

[Panic]

I would actually take the Yes on that prop bet for a huge dog hit.

[Panic]

Justin, you got any good player props you like?

[Justin7]

Justin, you got any good player props you like?

Will Fitzgerald score at least 2 TDs? No -300.

[onthewhat]

Justin what happens if you lost all of your tickets

[Justin7]

Justin what happens if you lost all of your tickets

I'd be broke! But I've never seen a game finish 106-103 in overtime where Arizona scored first, Roethlisberger had the first TD pass and there were no field goals.

[Panic]

What +money player props do you like?

[Justin7]

What +money player props do you like?

None.

[Panic]

None.

So you're gonna bet - down the board. No dogs?

[Justin7]

None.

Wait, I did have one:

Which QB will have the most TD passes?
I took Roethlesberger at +115.

[Shortstop]

Justin, I like the prop that one team will score 3 consecutive times. You?

[smitch124]

109 Which Team will kick the Opening Kickoff
Sun 2/1 6:10PM (EST)


109 AFC Team -220
110 NFC Team +170

Justin, does Pittsburgh always defer and the Cardinals always accept the ball when winning the toss?

[Justin7]

109 Which Team will kick the Opening Kickoff
Sun 2/1 6:10PM (EST)


109 AFC Team -220
110 NFC Team +170

Justin, does Pittsburgh always defer and the Cardinals always accept the ball when winning the toss?

No idea. But the market seems to believe that.

[pokernut9999]

109 Which Team will kick the Opening Kickoff
Sun 2/1 6:10PM (EST)


109 AFC Team -220
110 NFC Team +170

Justin, does Pittsburgh always defer and the Cardinals always accept the ball when winning the toss?

Interesting point , but in the Superbowl the winner can not defer to the second half.

The NFC has won the last 11 coin tosses and 28-14 overall , hence the funny odds.

[smitch124]

Interesting point , but in the Superbowl the winner can not defer to the second half.

The NFC has won the last 11 coin tosses and 28-14 overall , hence the funny odds.

Are you sure about that? Because if thats the case I would go very heavy on the +170...the coin (even the Super Bowl one) has no memory.

[pokernut9999]

Are you sure about that? Because if thats the case I would go very heavy on the +170...the coin (even the Super Bowl one) has no memory.

Just went back to read the article , I was wrong as this is the first year they are allowing teams to defer. Glad I went back and double checked. Sorry for the wrong info.

[smitch124]

No prob, I didn't bet it. Good luck today!

[flyingillini]

What about this bet??
Will Larry Fitzgerald score at least 1 TD
Sun 2/1 3:20PM (PST)
187 Yes -125
188 No -105

[VegasDave]

Good Luck Justin.

I think its very funny that people only seem to see value in +odds. As you pointed out, if the true odds are at -700 and you get it at -600, its a great bet; win or lose.

If you listed 20 props all +500 or better, everyone would think that was cool, because "you only have to hit a few to win!", as opposed to laying chalk where "you only have to lose a few to lose!"

Value is value, and I love your logic too that the public will all be on +s. That makes perfect sense. Why would people that look at the game as a party/event be rooting AGAINST Fitzgerald scoring 2 TDs? More "fun" to bet the yes on these props and root him on. The pros that are looking at the game as a betting opportunity instead of a fun thing should indeed be getting good value.

Hope you come out a big winner Justin

[patsfan2727]

he can't come out a big winner when he plays all 1:6 plays
!!!

[BigDaddy]

he can't come out a big winner when he plays all 1:6 plays
!!!

yes he can

[Panic]

Good Luck Justin.

I think its very funny that people only seem to see value in +odds. As you pointed out, if the true odds are at -700 and you get it at -600, its a great bet; win or lose.

If you listed 20 props all +500 or better, everyone would think that was cool, because "you only have to hit a few to win!", as opposed to laying chalk where "you only have to lose a few to lose!"

Value is value, and I love your logic too that the public will all be on +s. That makes perfect sense. Why would people that look at the game as a party/event be rooting AGAINST Fitzgerald scoring 2 TDs? More "fun" to bet the yes on these props and root him on. The pros that are looking at the game as a betting opportunity instead of a fun thing should indeed be getting good value.

Hope you come out a big winner Justin

Dont think anyone was saying go only one way Dave, but Justin. Myself, I play both - and +. Really couldnt care less if I can get a -700# at -650. If I think its a loser, I dont play it. Case in point: I dont think the Cards can win today. If I could find them at +300, I still would not play them. Understand? I also dont make 200 plays a day. I may have had less than 50 plays for the month of Dec. To each his own. I know the # guys are making their money, but so am I. Who's system is wrong? If you both get where you want to be, who cares about the route.

And i know thier are #'s guys that live and die by the closing line and value. But I have never been that dependant on gambling to make or break my life, to the point where I bacame entralled with the numbers and studied every facet of the profession. To those that do it, I am in awe. Its amazing the way they can do that shit. I bet heavy few and far between. But my main source of living comes from other means.

[flyingillini]

Panic

[durito]

S. Holmes to have rush attp No -300

[VegasDave]

Dont think anyone was saying go only one way Dave, but Justin. Myself, I play both - and +. Really couldnt care less if I can get a -700# at -650. If I think its a loser, I dont play it. Case in point: I dont think the Cards can win today. If I could find them at +300, I still would not play them. Understand? I also dont make 200 plays a day. I may have had less than 50 plays for the month of Dec. To each his own. I know the # guys are making their money, but so am I. Who's system is wrong? If you both get where you want to be, who cares about the route.

And i know thier are #'s guys that live and die by the closing line and value. But I have never been that dependant on gambling to make or break my life, to the point where I bacame entralled with the numbers and studied every facet of the profession. To those that do it, I am in awe. Its amazing the way they can do that shit. I bet heavy few and far between. But my main source of living comes from other means.

I completely respect that; there isn't only one way to win at betting sports.

I'm not saying Justin is right and everyone else is wrong. I'm simply saying that even if you wouldn't lay the chalk, that doesn't mean there isn't value there. I was referring to posts like this one:

I don't get it, for every 6 bets you make, you have to hit 5 out of them just to break even? I also don't understand how there is value betting against something (win by 3 points) that has happened so frequently?
the ONLY solid big chalk play that I see on the board today is Pitt +7.5 -750
and I still wouldnt take it

You see this all the time in tennis threads too and just about anywhere else that a bettor on this board decides to take -favorites. I was simply saying that there is too much emphasis on the number and not enough emphasis on the value of the number.

[durito]

There are props out there every week at -400 or so that should be -600 or more. That's an incredible edge. But, for whatever reason people won't bet them.

Yesterday out there was D. West to make first FT -400. Guy shoots 90% from the FT line.

[Justin7]

More free money (well, at least value)
Blocked punts UND0.5 -1000
Total missed FGs: UND1.0 -600 (tieing on the 1 is huge)

[G's pks]

I took Willie Parker to score a TD...YES -125 Just a fun bet... Steelers ml...

Oh well lost the prop...but Pitt came through...