El Niño's NCAAF/NFL Thread

[El Nino]

9/26

San Francisco 49ers/St. Louis Rams Under 42.5 (-110) BookMaker
Iowa State Cyclones/Tulsa Golden Hurricane Under 56 (-104) 5Dimes

YTD
11-8 +3.32u

[Huckleberry Pig]

GL Nino

[El Nino]

9/28

USC (+170) 5Dimes
Texas San Antonio (+125) 5Dimes
LSU +3.5 (-113) 5Dimes

YTD
11-10 +1.18u

[El Nino]

NFL Plays for Sunday

9/29

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (+105) 3u 5Dimes
Arizona Cardinals +3 (-120) BookMaker
Atlanta Falcons -2 (-110) BookMaker

I really think Pittsburgh can win this one going away. They have corners that can limit Simpson and Jennings and the run D to contain AD. The offensive line is shaky, but Big Ben has Miller back and Sanders and Brown have looked good lately. Brown has become a legitimate deep threat target for Big Ben and he always has his safety net Miller underneath. It will be interesting to see how Bell is implemented and Dwyer showed some promising carries in the Bears game. The Vikings defense has been gashed for at least 31 points in 3 games this season. Now throw Matt Cassel with a limited playbook on a short week due to international travel...the Steelers get their first win of the season. The spread should be Steelers -6.

[fitguy67]

9/28
Texas San Antonio (+125) 5Dimes

anyone know what happened since Nino first posted this play?...massive move toward the then-dog TexasSanAntonio, making them now the clear favorite...

for Nino and the early-tailgaters, the closer wasn't just beat here...it was raped and murdered

[El Nino]

anyone know what happened since Nino first posted this play?...massive move toward the then-dog TexasSanAntonio, making them now the clear favorite...

for Nino and the early-tailgaters, the closer wasn't just beat here...it was raped and murdered

It was a goofy line. +2 with no ML option at BookMaker, the reduced juice ML at Dimey was nice. Started seeing -111 ML elsewhere, so I hopped on it. Threw UTSA in a parlay last weekend and I think I bet them 2nd half (was drunk). Been liking them this season.

[Louisvillekid1]

Like the card

[fitguy67]

sweet LSU +3.5 result >>>

[El Nino]

sweet LSU +3.5 result >>>

Yep, need USC for some profit. Blocked FG for a TD, 10 point swing for Houston, Road Runners couldn't recover.

[El Nino]

Rough weekend for foots, the Steelers defense was horrific.

9/30

New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115) BookMaker

YTD
13-14 -2.92u

[El Nino]

Rough weekend for foots, the Steelers defense was horrific.

9/30

New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115) BookMaker

YTD
13-14 -2.92u

1-0 +1u

YTD
14-14 -1.92u

[El Nino]

2 NFL Plays locked in already. I locked in the Bears yesterday at a pick 'em (-110), a little surprised the line is moving against me. I think it's an overreaction to Brees' MNF performance and Cutler's poor performance on the road against the Lions. In the first half, I thought the Dolphins looked like the better team. The 2 turnovers broke their backs and they couldn't hang in a shootout. Brees is a completely different QB when he's outdoors. The Saints could not run the ball at all. Their O-line was getting pushed around until the game turned into a shootout. I'm still not sold on the Saints' defense and without winning the turnover battle, I don't have them taking this one on a tough road game.

I also locked in the Under 43 in the Panthers/Cardinals game (-115) Two shitty offenses and two above average defenses. Neither team has had a ton of success running the ball. Palmer got nearly murdered the last time he faced this defense. The Cardinals' O-line did not improve by trading away Levi Brown. Levi Brown was awful, but the guy replacing him was ranked worse than Brown by Pro Football Focus. There will be turnovers and sloppy play. I just don't see this game being much different than the Bucs game.

10/6

Chicago Bears PK (-110) 2u BookMaker
Under 43 Carolina Panthers/Arizona Cardinals (-115) BookMaker

YTD
14-14 -1.92u

[El Nino]

10/4

Utah State -5 (-110) Bookmaker

Chuckie goin' get ya.

[billysink]

Like the total play there. The Cards just have not yet grasped the new offense Arians laid out. Arians himself said the offense stunk. Fitz being out at long as he was is not in synch with Palmer and neither team figures to gouge in the run game.

Cards get Daryl Washington back and he may act as a shadow on Newton if he spreads the field. Carolina has had the bye week to get healthy.

Like the Panther side a bit as well but will wait the line I want, they are just night and day to the Panthers in 3rd down success on both sides of the ball. In a grind it out game, that speaks volumes.

Good luck Niner.

[El Nino]

Like the total play there. The Cards just have not yet grasped the new offense Arians laid out. Arians himself said the offense stunk. Fitz being out at long as he was is not in synch with Palmer and neither team figures to gouge in the run game.

Cards get Daryl Washington back and he may act as a shadow on Newton if he spreads the field. Carolina has had the bye week to get healthy.

Like the Panther side a bit as well but will wait the line I want, they are just night and day to the Panthers in 3rd down success on both sides of the ball. In a grind it out game, that speaks volumes.

Good luck Niner.

Thanks, billy. Washington coming back was necessary as the Cards are hurting bad in the LB deparment. Hopefully Palmer doesn't throw a pick 6 or gets stripped sacked for a TD. It's going to be a long day for him. As much as Arians was supposed to come in and drum up the offense, Fitz still doesn't have a 100yd game. The running game is non existent. Also lean Panthers for the side.

[Smoke]

Disagree on the under 43

[El Nino]

10/4

Utah State -5 (-110) Bookmaker

Chuckie goin' get ya.

Game had zero chance of covering when Keeton went down. Bad news for Utah State fans.

0-1 -1u

YTD
14-15 -3.02u

[El Nino]

10/12

Boise State -6 (-110) 2.5u BookMaker

YTD
15-16 -4.22u

No Chuckie Keeton for Utah State and their offense takes a huge step back. Boise State should be able to mix up their run game with the improved passing offense and point up some big points.

Also looking at Northwestern. The line makes zero sense to me. Wisky seems too easy here, hence the lean on Northwestern.

[El Nino]

1-0 +2.5u

YTD
16-16 -1.72u

10/13

New York Jets PK (-110) BookMaker

Only play for tomorrow. Not really feeling the card. Locked this in last night. Geno looks to be coming around and the Jets defense should take away the Steelers running game and give Big Ben problems. Plus, it's the Steelers...

[El Nino]

Added: Washington Redskins +6 (-110) BookMaker

[El Nino]

0-2 in NFL last weekend -2.2u Just terrible on sides. Probably need to start fading myself or sticking to NCAAF.

5-9 -11.98u in NFL
11-9 +8.06u in NCAAF

10/17

Under 40.5 Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals (-110) BookMaker

YTD
16-18 -3.92u

Gritty defensive battle here. Both teams dealing some injuries and on short weeks. Lynch banged up with a bad hip and he's going up against a top 5 Run defense. I expect Daryl Washington to continue to have success and play big. Wilson doesn't have any real explosive weapons in the receiving core. Peterson and co. should be able to limit Baldwin, Tate, and Rice. The run is the key for the Seahawks. Arizona should be able to keep Lynch from busting any highlight reel runs. The Seahawks will pound the rock and eat clock. While Seattle's run defense should be able to handle Arizona's weak rushing attack, their pass defense is top 5 in the league. Sherman limits Fitz, which leaves Floyd. Housler and Roberts have been ghosts. Really expected to see 38 on this line. Palmer will throw his picks, hopefully not pick 6's. Arizona is miserable on 3rd down conversions. Should be a lot of punts here. Cards punter Dave Zastudil is one of the best at changing field positions. Should make for some long drives for the Seahawks.

[El Nino]

11/2

Oklahoma State ML (+115) 5Dimes
NC State ML (+125) 5Dimes

YTD
16-19 -5.02u

[El Nino]

1-1 +0.15u

11/3

Baltimore Ravens -1 (-110) 2u BookMaker

YTD
17-20 -4.87u

[El Nino]

11/16

Duke +4 (-105) 5Dimes
West Virginia -6.5 (-110) 2u BookMaker
Stanford ML (-165) 5Dimes
Arizona State -14 (-119) BookMaker
Over 48 Iowa State/Oklahoma (-110) BookMaker

YTD
17-21 -7.07u

[El Nino]

11/17

Under 41 Baltimore Ravens/Chicago Bears (-105) 5Dimes

YTD
19-24 -10.11u

[El Nino]

Indy Colts +3.5 (-120) 2u BookMaker

[El Nino]

11/30


Arizona +11 (-110) 2u BookMaker
Under 43 Virginia Tech/Virginia (-110) BookMaker


YTD
19-26 -13.56u

Too many pts. here for the Territorial Cup. Huge rivalry game, home field meaningless as the visiting team has won the last 4 straight and many U of A grads moved out of the dust bowl that is Tucson and up to civilization in the East Valley. 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams have been 7 pt or less margins of victory. No Grice = problems for ASU in the red zone and with their rushing attack. Carey rushed for more attempts last game against Oregon than ASU's backup has all season. ASU's special teams is garbage, their FG kicker is mediocre at best. I normally like to fade a team coming off a big upset win, but ASU could easily be looking past U of A here. ASU has Stanford for the PAC-12 Title and a trip to the Rose Bowl in their sights. This game is the season for U of A. I can't see the line being any more than ASU -7 here.

[hagball52]

Hi just checking in

[El Nino]

YTD
20-27 -14.76u

Well, U of A started slow and got blown out. However, this gives us a line on Stanford that is laughable. Opened at +3 and is already to +4. I pounded it for a 5u bet at +4. Stanford's line will man handle ASU and they won't be able to run all over them like they did to U of A. Stanford destroyed ASU and had benched a majority of their starters in the 4th quarter and still covered. Stanford hasn't regressed that much despite a few "bad" losses while ASU hasn't progressed that much. Grice's absence will catch up to them. At worst, this game should be a PK if not Stanford -1. Home field isn't a 10 pt swing in this game. Bunch of bandwagon Sun Devils fans will be out buying their new Nike gear this week.

12/7

Stanford +4 (-110) 5u BookMaker

[El Nino]

12/24

Oregon State -3 (+100) 3u 5Dimes

YTD
21-27 -9.76u

[El Nino]

Easy 3u winner. 1-0 +3u

YTD
22-27 -6.76u

[Carseller4]

Lots of bowl games coming up and final week of NFL

Good luck getting even!

[El Nino]

Lots of bowl games coming up and final week of NFL

Good luck getting even!

NFL has raped me all year. 5-13 -18.73u

NCAAF has been better. 17-14 +11.97u hitting my 5u Game of the Year on Stanford over ASU.

Thanks, even though you're prob just posting to get drinker's pts

[El Nino]

12/27


Marshall (-133) 5Dimes

YTD
22-27 -6.76u

[El Nino]

1-0 +1u

YTD
23-27 -5.76