Cashing in week 1 in ncaa football

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

I've been at this for 25+ years, and I don't look for a particular type of bet, I look for stealthy plus-EV wagers, that the odds makers are going to put little time into, because no one is going to exploit them on this, and the amount bet certainly is not going to hurt them no matter what. Most players will bypass this because it is out of their main stream of thinking, which is ok. My thinking has no boundries, if something has proven statistical plus-EV I'm all over it. here is one of my plays for week 1.Since 2005 (last 8 years), teams in game number 1 as a home favorite of -19.5 to
-24 are 51-0 straight up. That includes:


C. Fla -1450

Fla -2330

MD -1240

Okla -2230

UCLA -1155

Louis -1330





Put these in a 6 team parlay and you wager 100.00 to win 47.33



That is negative EV, however. There is an early season bias to huge home
favorites, and the upsets simply occur at a much slower rate.



Looking at the results in game number 1 shows: (all based on the last 30 yrs)



-21 .960

-23.5 .960

-20 .938

-23.5 .960

-19.5 1.00

-20.5 .938



Those odds parlayed now show a 77.84% chance of winning or over 100 bets:



77.84 x 47.33 = 3684.16 winning bets

22.16 x 100.00 = 2216.00 losing bets

--------------------------------------------------------------

1468.16 profit / 10000 risked =
14.68% ROI





Looking at results from game number 2:



-21 .966

-23.5 1.00

-20 .880

-23.5 1.00

-19.5 1.00

-20.5 1.00





Those parlayed show an 84.48% chance of winning or over 100 bets is:



88.48 x 47.33 = 4187.76

11.52 x 100.00 = 1152.00

____________________________

3025.76 / 100000 risked = 30.25%
ROI







This works because the early season preparation and depth of the much better
team creates a bias in results week 1-2, that gradually declines as the season
progresses, so there is a great opportunity to catch serious +EV here

[abovepar]

Good post and the numbers speak for themselves. I wouldn't bet the house but worth a few units to get the season started. A little money at the time will add up over the season. How many of us plan on getting rich from wagering? The goal is to make + money after the season is over. Slowly but surely.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

yes

That is the exact discipline required to make money, your right. This is just one game, but if you had a friend that said he'd pay you $47.33
to your $100.00 and you knew this, how often would you take him up on this bet?
Remember, anything can happen once, which is why it is called gambling. We wager
when we have plus-EV and in this case it is chock full! Just settle on 1 unit,
as this is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a marathon, using discipline for
the long haul!

[jjgold]

crazy as it sounds one of these can lose

I would not risk anymore than what your doing

God info guy and nail this

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

of course one of them can lose, 2% of bankroll just like any other play, the value is there

[BigdaddyQH]

So you are going to play a 6 team parlay and give over 2/1 with one team being Maryland? GL. Whynot just take Florida State -350 at Pitt? What you fail to realize is that most huge favorites who lose games lose them at home. The competitive edge is missing at home, and once they fall behind, they often can no longer get it for that game.

[husky]

Thanks for the info

[Sick_in_the_Head]

That is the exact discipline required to make money, your right. This is just one game, but if you had a friend that said he'd pay you $47.33
to your $100.00 and you knew this, how often would you take him up on this bet?
Remember, anything can happen once, which is why it is called gambling. We wager
when we have plus-EV and in this case it is chock full! Just settle on 1 unit,
as this is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a marathon, using discipline for
the long haul!

I like the way you look at it. Good way to think about it.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

So you are going to play a 6 team parlay and give over 2/1 with one team being Maryland? GL. Whynot just take Florida State -350 at Pitt? What you fail to realize is that most huge favorites who lose games lose them at home. The competitive edge is missing at home, and once they fall behind, they often can no longer get it for that game.

How can you say that when I put the facts in front of you? It is a plus-EV play. Don't tell me otherwise show me otherwise, thanks

[tb4]

Good info thanks.

[Louisvillekid1]

Maryland could go down...

FSU/Fresno/South Carolina is +100, imo a much better play...

GL

[Death Valley]

I could add USC -1500,Alabama -1200, and Marshall -1100 also.

[husky]

-21 to -24 home favs are 97% in game 1, but there would only be 3 teams so far in week 1 which would be a low payout. But could perhaps roll profits into week 2