My system for betting the NFL since 1981.

[kyhawk]

I used to post this system at the Rx I think or Majorwager. I have been involved in gambling for 30 plus years. I am old school fart and made my first bet at the Stardust 1981 and lived in Vegas for 10 plus years.

My goal of this system is to save anyone betting the NFL.
There are a number of reasons why you should not even attempt.

The lines are too strong, turnovers determine most games, and the list goes on.
You can drink the Jim Jones Kool Aid that is poured every day here at this forum at others.

Take it from an idiot who paid $500 for Jim Feist's picks for a weekend and lost every game.
Fish was with me, so he is a witness. We were staying at the Landmark and met the guy at the bar.

Here is the system. I will track it at the tracking forum. Please don't bet this. I remember some guy at the Rx actually posting about waiting for my picks.

Final warning. You can win a battle with gambling...but never a war. Long term the juice, etc is too strong.
But drink the Jim Jones Kool aid if you must.

This is a coin flip league. I will simply pick the first 5 games and flip a coin. Heads for home, tails for visitor.
Track me for the season and I will be close to any capper here.

[sweep]

broke dikk fuk

[Rangers901]

I personally think the best bet in the NFL is the ugly home dog. Making the ugly pick that no one wants to make works fairly successfully in the NFL, I believe it's the best sport for the "against the public" angle, one that I don't buy into often. A perfect example is last season when the 49ers went not Minnesota. Everyone was on the 49ers as 5.5 road favourites, they end up losing by 11.

[BIGDAY]

I personally think the best bet in the NFL is the ugly home dog. Making the ugly pick that no one wants to make works fairly successfully in the NFL, I believe it's the best sport for the "against the public" angle, one that I don't buy into often. A perfect example is last season when the 49ers went not Minnesota. Everyone was on the 49ers as 5.5 road favourites, they end up losing by 11.

Vikes will have plenty of Value this season as well.

[Fishhead]

[Fred The Hammer]

Overall I agree with the guy....thats why I like totals better in the NFL. College football is easier in general also. Think about it...they can set 15-16 pretty accurate lines in the NFL but its a helluva lot harder to set 50+ tough lines in CFB. Plus Florida State (or whatever ranked team) needs to beat a scrub by as much as they can to keep their ranking while Denver could care less if KC beats the spread with a minute left as long as they win the game.

[innovation]

sounds like the guy who use to base his wager on his stool sample....

soft he took dog...hard he played fave

[jjgold]

Hawk betting is an art

All math and line movement

[Rangers901]

Hawk betting is an art

All math and line movement

IMO, line movement is significant in some regards, and then useless in others. Investing in significantly reliant on math. Many people make the mistake of saying, "I don't care about value, I care about winners." These people will lose 98% of the time over the long haul. The math is simple, if you're constantly getting a 50/50 scenario at +110, you will be guaranteed to profit it the long run, it's inevitable.

[AribaAriba]

damn!!! i cant wait until the first game of the nfl. I can smell the breeze of fall in a sunday morning enjoying my coffee and making serious profit. Bring it on!

[Fishhead]

It's all a numbers game, handicapping plays a 0.011% factor, meanwhile you have squares pouring over stats, schedules, tip sheets, and watching game film...................it's a good hobby for these squares though, and does keep them off the streets where they could be doing the public much more harm than staying cramped up inside their preferred abode................................... .there are many better ways in the NFL to make money other than predicting pointspread winners.

[trytrytry]

actually it is totally the opposite if your playing edges +Ev situations to the best of your ability, line shopping and looking for edge anywhere. Lots of battles lost daily but long term the war is even or better for ya!

actually if you think all your able to do in gambling is hit the daily battle here and there you should either stop, or budget for a hobby only... its not a horrible pass time to watch, read, highlights, play some wagers...but if you feel its only some daily battles that you get not long term scale way back...



"Final warning. You can win a battle with gambling...but never a war. Long term the juice, etc is too strong.
But drink the Jim Jones Kool aid if you must."

[Fishhead]

Have won a few wars in the NFL arena, with the opposition waving the white flag, it was fun.............will lose many a battle, but have no plans on ever losing a war.

[agendaman]

he said one correct thing most games are won by turnovers nfl is absol. toughest sport to win at i play 8.5 pt. teasers esp. in college do fairly well just this check opening lines vs. present lines e.g.auburn-wash.st. total opened at 60 now 49 plus my 8.5 pt. teaser over 40.5 sweet eh gl. guys

[stuffit]

Im following OP all NFL season..