Super Bowl Square probability question

[themajormt]

I have a chance to buy into a $1,000/ square board. I would be splitting it with 3 other guys, so $250 a person.

The pay outs are:

$15k/quarter, $20k final
$3k reverse each quarter and final
$1k touching


I was wondering if there was a way to figure the probability of seeing my money back or a potential profit from the $250 investment... Any help??

[Doug]

What is touching ?

adjacent to ?

seems that is 4 squares, but only 3 on the perimeter ?

[Doug]

I have a chance to buy into a $1,000/ square board. I would be splitting it with 3 other guys, so $250 a person.

The pay outs are:

$15k/quarter, $20k final 80K
$3k reverse each quarter and final 15k
$1k touching 5k


I was wondering if there was a way to figure the probability of seeing my money back or a potential profit from the $250 investment... Any help??

so,5k for touching, need that defined.

[themajormt]

Touching would be any square on each side of a winning square... So top,bottom,left,right... if its on an end it goes to the other side... So it would be $1k per side, $4k total payout on each winning square.

Hope this helps

[seaborneq]

Is this a progressive board? payout after every score also?

[themajormt]

And the $3k reverse totals $12k... I should have put just each quarter, sorry for any confusion

[themajormt]

No it is FINAL for each quarter

[themajormt]

How would I go about trying to figure out a ballpark on a possible return??

[Ganchrow]

I have a chance to buy into a $1,000/ square board. I would be splitting it with 3 other guys, so $250 a person.

The pay outs are:

$15k/quarter, $20k final
$3k reverse each quarter and final
$1k touching


I was wondering if there was a way to figure the probability of seeing my money back or a potential profit from the $250 investment... Any help??

Assuming "touching" pays each quarter, then that would be a total payout of:

15,000*3+20,000 + 3,000*4 + 1,000*4*4 = $93,000

This implies vig of 93,000 (100*1,000) - 1 = 7%, so on a $250 wager your expected loss would be 7% * $250 = $17.50.

Since 24 out of 100 spots cash, your probability of breaking even or better would be about 24 100 = 24%.

[HedgeHog]

NM--Ganch got your answer while I was still figuring and typing.

[CaneDawg]

nice work Ganch

[Doug]

Leave it to Scott ( Ganchrow) to math it up , when not needed.

I read it as a no hold thing, like a bunch of regulars at the local bar, doing it.

I like Ganch, but he misses the point at times...

It's a lottery ticket you can win, with no hold.

Odds are you lose the $250, but a fair chance you collect.

Fair game, no +/- expectation, just action... as long as the draw is fairly done.

[Ganchrow]

I read it as a no hold thing, like a bunch of regulars at the local bar, doing it.

I like Ganch, but he misses the point at times...

It's a lottery ticket you can win, with no hold.

Odds are you lose the $250, but a fair chance you collect.

Fair game, no +/- expectation, just action... as long as the draw is fairly done.

Well, according to the OP's description (unless I've misinterpreted) $100k is taken in and $93k is paid out.

That's a hold of $7k on $100k worth of bets.

So that's not a fair game and that's a negative expectation.

[flavo-ice]

Any squares left on this SB board and if so are they looking to fill them? And where will the draw be held?

[themajormt]

Ganch,

Thank you for the info, I might be wrong but from what I understood there is no hold from the person putting it on. It is 100% payout, I could be off a little with the numbers but they do equal $100k. I will have exact payouts Wednesday if I decide to do it...

With a 100% payout, what is expected return?

Thanks again!!

[themajormt]

Draw is in Buffalo NY, there are 5 squares as of this afternoon...

[Ganchrow]

Ganch,

Thank you for the info, I might be wrong but from what I understood there is no hold from the person putting it on. It is 100% payout, I could be off a little with the numbers but they do equal $100k. I will have exact payouts Wednesday if I decide to do it...

With a 100% payout, what is expected return?

Thanks again!!

With 100% payout the expected return would be 0.

[themajormt]

So I have a good chance of breaking even is that what you are saying? I definitely shouldve paid more attention in my stats class!!!

[themajormt]

Or, I guess the better question is would YOU do this?

Thanks!

[HedgeHog]

As far as your chances of breakeven or better, I think Ganch's estimate of 24% is still very close.

[Ganchrow]

Or, I guess the better question is would YOU do this?

No. I would not.

[themajormt]

Thank you, I will let you know what I decide and if I do the numbers so you can root against me

[Poker_Beast]

GL, I got in on a $500 square split ($100, 20%). Pays every score change, every quarter, double numbers and anything left goes to the final score. Final score paid around 20K last year.