I see a lot of value in fading the Red Sox in the coming weeks. They were exposed in Houston IMO, having to rally for their 2 wins there and pitching was a disaster against a weak Astros lineup. The schedule gets a lot tougher going forward, they only have 5 series left with teams with losing records(Toronto, Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago White Sox) and more games away from home than at home. I can forsee a 2011 style collapse from the Red Sox to close the season and allowing the Rays to take the division and another team to grab the wild card. I do think the Red Sox have overachieved to this point, are not as good as their results so far, and I like to take the chances of them running out of steam from here on out. The Red Sox always have inflated lines and there will be value the next few weeks fading them so get them before the books adjust. Start tonight with Kansas City +110.
-
-
Houston isn't as bad as people give them credit for. I'm on the under but I think KC at +$$$ is a solid play.Comment -
Super unlikely they have a 2011 style collapse here. They added a solid starter in Peavy and have a sixth starter in Workman who has been decent and more young arms available for call up then they have had for a while. Tied with Baltimore for 3rd toughest schedule so far and 2nd only to Detroit in run differential in the Al, 47 runs more than Tampa in 3rd. They have not been lucky to be where they are. I do expect a little regression and a .500 record the rest of the way would not be shocking, but baring injuries they should do better than that and at least get in with the wild card.
That being said they do tend to be overvalued and certain pitching matchups will have them in prime fade material.Comment -
Houston battles teams decent pitching
Bosox not letting up
I am not betting against themComment -
jj is smart. fros is a pokeman player that lies about everything.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
Well in fairness the Red Sox started Dempster and Steven Wright. Two guys (if buchhotz returns) aren't even in the Red Sox top 6 starters and should both be in AAA. And they still won those games.Comment -
Even a .500 record down the stretch will make this auto fade profitable.Originally posted by odog11Comment -
True, though I think they will be over .500 and would put over under at around 95. Think better option is to pick your spots.. Tonight is a good spot to fade IMO.Originally posted by frogsrangersComment -
fade the Bo Sox tonight !!!!
no big papi tonight !Comment -
What do you mean that the Red Sox were "exposed"? How does putting up 21 runs in 27 innings against AAA pitching show weakness? I can show you tons of teams who have "rallied" to win games in the 6th 7th 8th and 9th innings. Usually, good teams are the ones who rally.
You talk about their pitching getting torn apart by terrible hitters... dempster gave up 7 hits in 6innings with 7 K's & 0 BB's. Lackey gave up 2 ER in 7 IP with 10k/0bb. Steven Wright's stats hardly matter for your argument. What exactly are you referring to?
If you want to predict that Tampa is going to win the division, say that, not that Boston is going to play .400 baseball the rest of the way.Comment -
Santana at plus money tomorrowComment -
already on it
KC favored by tomorrowComment -
2-0 so far with KC, anyone like Guthrie today?Comment -
Since you're asking as opposed to telling us, I like Boston lolOriginally posted by frogsrangersComment -
Game a cointoss...lean to kc hereComment -
this is a sharp sharp sharp thread.Comment -
what is updated record??Comment -
2-5 since I started the thread. Pretty sure Boston has been favored in all 7 games so the fade has been profitable. Next up: Yankees all at home, and a road trip to San Francisco/Los Angeles. Fading Red Sox is money on the road. I like to play against them in San Francisco since I expect them to be road favorites.Comment -
Frogs thanks for update
Your in the game thats all you want at this pointComment -
Boston schedule tough to close. But I still think the oddsmakers will give them favorable odds so I still like to fade them. The Rays/Orioles have sucked as well so they haven't been able to take advantage so a team other than Boston to win AL East is still a good future.Comment -
Another lossComment -
kuroda is an underdog tomorrow vs lackey. sorry but what's the catch??Comment -
Not to mention I'd say 60% chance that lackey will be throwing at Arod so it could go to the pen earlyOriginally posted by jay89Comment -
Up about 7 units fading them since the 8th, right?Comment -
Red Sox are on AUTO FADE during their west coast road trip. I repeat, Red Sox are on AUTO FADE during their west coast road trip.Comment
