Braves (Minor) +101 over Nationals (Strasburg) tonight

You mad bro · 08-05-13, 01:22 PM

It's sad when uggla is batting over 200 against you

jjgold · 08-05-13, 01:24 PM

I bet against the Braves a lot this year and got buried.

No more

I am on Atlanta

Good luck Cuz

whtsox13 · 08-05-13, 01:26 PM

Got Braves at +121 last night couldn't pass it up. Thanks for the confirmation Nash.

Smoke · 08-05-13, 01:30 PM

the whole world is on the braves

PASS

Vinnie Paz · 08-05-13, 01:31 PM

Yea way better numbers last night, got 118, I don't care I'd still play it at current. Can't pass up. Atlanta at plus with a lefty vs the nationals

stevenash · 08-05-13, 01:34 PM

I don't think the casual baseball fan realizes how good Minor has been this season.
Stras has been like bi-polar on the mound this year, you have no idea what Stas is going to show up.
When Stras's command is not there, he gets creamed.

stevenash · 08-05-13, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Yea way better numbers last night, got 118, I don't care I'd still play it at current. Can't pass up. Atlanta at plus with a lefty vs the nationals

I know, I know, I even said to myself "I could be walking into a big steaming bucket of shit here" but you can't pass it up never the less.

Vinnie Paz · 08-05-13, 01:39 PM

Me too, it looks so trappy, I stared at +122 for like half hour, then came back to bet it and was +118. Still a weird opener, throw in the fact braves are a dog to win this series makes ya think. Whatever though, over time I've just learned to play according to the #s I have in front of me and try not to get all wrapped up in the mind games of the oddsmakers. Good luck guys.

stevenash · 08-05-13, 01:43 PM

^
I learned a long time ago, don't overthink the wager.

I preach "you like a side, bet the side" Don't overthink it.

forthewin · 08-05-13, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by Smoke

the whole world is on the braves

PASS

The whole world has been on the Dodgers and the Rays too and look how they've done the past 20 or so games. Although the Dodgers may have a problem tonight with the Cardinals, still upset with that whopping both the *Braves and the Pirates put on them.

stevenash · 08-05-13, 01:58 PM

I think Wainwright shuts down LA tonight.
Remember, Han-Ram in the middle of that order is out, so is Puig.
I don't think Greinke, will out pitch Wainwright, in his own back yard, without the Dodger meat of the order in that game.

Mr KLC · 08-05-13, 02:02 PM

One stat that jumped out at me for this game was this. Both pitchers have improved in their xFIP's over the last 30 games. There was one difference though. Out of all of Minor's fly balls, he is allowing 8.6% home runs for the season, but only 2.6% over the last 30 days. Strasburg is allowing 10.9% for the season, but 19.2% over the last 30 days. That's almost one home run in every 5 fly balls. A home run, with people on base, can be the difference in this game. Minor is also eating a lot of innings up lately, averaging 7.2 innings a game in the last 30 games (Strasburg is averaging 6). The Braves bullpen numbers have improved in the last 30 days, while the Nationals have slightly declined. Seeing that the Nationals are not world beaters at home, I think the Braves win.

Jimmy Proffett · 08-05-13, 02:02 PM

Think I'm gonna put some on the Nats tonight. Minor has a SO/W ratio of 1.71 against the Nats and his WHIP is also terrible. Werth and the other righties are gonna turn things around tonight. Take into account Strasburg pitching @ home...... gimme the Nats.

Smoke · 08-05-13, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by forthewin

The whole world has been on the Dodgers and the Rays too and look how they've done the past 20 or so games. Although the Dodgers may have a problem tonight with the Cardinals, still upset with that whopping both the *Braves and the Pirates put on them.

yes but something is fishy here when the line opened with braves as +120 dog its like they are begging us to take the braves and everyone bit and line dropped to +100 now line back to +108

stevenash · 08-05-13, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Jimmy Proffett

Minor has a SO/W ratio of 1.71 against the Nats and his WHIP is also terrible.

Skewed stat however.

Minor had a brain fart on June 30, 2012 versus Nats.
That game he worked 5 innings, walked 5, gave up 5 hits.

Minor was a September 2011 rookie roster expansion call up
He lost a 3-0 start to Washington in a call up game, but pitched well.

He faced the Nats 3 times in 2012, he was 2-0 with a ND against them.
When you have four starts against a team, and one of them was 10 baserunners in 5 innings, of course the WH/IP number is going to be high.
4 games is not a fair sample size for a pitcher.

This is his third season, second full, he turned it around last June with experience and a better game plan, he's working hard with Roger McDowell, loves him.

He's 23, 144 innings pitched is not a concern for a kid, who is coming into his own, and is in terrific shape.

Having said that, yeah, Werth and Harper could ding him tonight, maybe Desmond, doesn't change the fact Braves hit Stras hard.

innovation · 08-05-13, 02:30 PM

A year after Braves on Mondays couldn't buy a win until ESPN sold it to the public.

Now they are something like 11-2 this year on Mondays.

Is it time to fade after a Sunday nighter?

stevenash · 08-05-13, 02:35 PM

^
Who knows, baseball in fickle.
I crunch the numbers, I bet the numbers.
If the numbers are right, I make the bet, if the bet loses, so be it, it's baseball.
But the numbers add up to Hotlanta tonight, doesn't mean it wins, but I like the numbers never the less.

Smoke · 08-05-13, 02:37 PM

Nashy how much did you bet on braves?

tto827 · 08-05-13, 02:58 PM

Fade the braves against righties with plus stuff.
That said I don't like betting against nashy

Diamond Hustler · 08-05-13, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

^
Who knows, baseball in fickle.
I crunch the numbers, I bet the numbers.
If the numbers are right, I make the bet, if the bet loses, so be it, it's baseball.
But the numbers add up to Hotlanta tonight, doesn't mean it wins, but I like the numbers never the less.

Agreed. Numbers > Perception

PickoMoff · 08-05-13, 04:06 PM

stevenash · 08-05-13, 04:11 PM

Ibanez is a very good value play tonight

pavyracer · 08-05-13, 04:20 PM

Fade the Braves boys like you did all year long. 65 times later you are on you 5th reload at your book and run out of crap to pawn.

bigjah15 · 08-05-13, 04:31 PM

I'm on braves +2.5 to close out my parlay

stevenash · 08-05-13, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Ibanez is a very good value play tonight

How did this get here, this was supposed to be in the fantasy forum.

riffraff24 · 08-05-13, 04:39 PM

The Braves avg vs Stras you have above is skued. This lineup doesnt hit .313 vs him...

Braves	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1. Jason Heyward (L) RF	15	7	1	0	0	1	2	2	0.467	0.556	0.533	1.089
2. Justin Upton (R) LF	12	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	0.083	0.154	0.083	0.237
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B	13	5	1	0	1	4	2	2	0.385	0.412	0.692	1.104
4. Brian McCann (L) C	16	6	1	0	1	2	0	4	0.375	0.375	0.625	1.000
5. Chris Johnson (R) 3B	11	3	0	0	0	3	0	3	0.273	0.273	0.273	0.545
6. Dan Uggla (R) 2B	24	11	2	0	2	8	3	9	0.458	0.519	0.792	1.310
7. B.J. Upton (R) CF	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.125	0.222	0.125	0.347
8. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
9. Mike Minor (R) P	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
	105	34	5	0	4	19	9	28	0.271	0.314	0.390	0.704

Nats however...

Nationals	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1. Bryce Harper (L) CF	8	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.333	0.375	0.708
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS	15	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	0.333	0.375	0.467	0.842
3. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 3B	14	4	0	0	0	1	3	4	0.286	0.412	0.286	0.697
4. Jayson Werth (R) RF	8	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	0.250	0.250	0.625	0.875
5. Adam LaRoche (L) 1B	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0.167	0.333	0.333	0.667
6. Wilson Ramos (R) C	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.750	1.500	2.250
7. Anthony Rendon (R) 2B	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
8. Scott Hairston (R) LF	12	3	0	0	1	1	0	4	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.750
9. Stephen Strasburg (R) P	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
	67	20	4	0	3	8	7	14	0.327	0.386	0.584	0.970

darrell74 · 08-05-13, 04:41 PM

I like the Braves, also.
I'm on the bandwagon

BIGDAY · 08-05-13, 04:46 PM

Don't fuk is Nashy!

RavensFan2k3 · 08-05-13, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

The Braves avg vs Stras you have above is skued. This lineup doesnt hit .313 vs him...

Braves	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1. Jason Heyward (L) RF	15	7	1	0	0	1	2	2	0.467	0.556	0.533	1.089
2. Justin Upton (R) LF	12	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	0.083	0.154	0.083	0.237
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B	13	5	1	0	1	4	2	2	0.385	0.412	0.692	1.104
4. Brian McCann (L) C	16	6	1	0	1	2	0	4	0.375	0.375	0.625	1.000
5. Chris Johnson (R) 3B	11	3	0	0	0	3	0	3	0.273	0.273	0.273	0.545
6. Dan Uggla (R) 2B	24	11	2	0	2	8	3	9	0.458	0.519	0.792	1.310
7. B.J. Upton (R) CF	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.125	0.222	0.125	0.347
8. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
9. Mike Minor (R) P	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
	105	34	5	0	4	19	9	28	0.271	0.314	0.390	0.704

Nats however...

Nationals	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1. Bryce Harper (L) CF	8	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.333	0.375	0.708
2. Ian Desmond (R) SS	15	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	0.333	0.375	0.467	0.842
3. Ryan Zimmerman (R) 3B	14	4	0	0	0	1	3	4	0.286	0.412	0.286	0.697
4. Jayson Werth (R) RF	8	2	0	0	1	3	0	3	0.250	0.250	0.625	0.875
5. Adam LaRoche (L) 1B	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0.167	0.333	0.333	0.667
6. Wilson Ramos (R) C	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.750	1.500	2.250
7. Anthony Rendon (R) 2B	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
8. Scott Hairston (R) LF	12	3	0	0	1	1	0	4	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.750
9. Stephen Strasburg (R) P	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
	67	20	4	0	3	8	7	14	0.327	0.386	0.584	0.970

Todays lineup hits even better than .313...are you advocating the Braves? Because based on your wording, Id think you're advocating the Nats

amarius87 · 08-05-13, 04:47 PM

You bet the team on a win streak till they lose. Whether they are dogs or dabs.
For example the jays on their 11 game streak where usually dogs but still won. Bet till they lose

riffraff24 · 08-05-13, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Todays lineup hits even better than .313...are you advocating the Braves? Because based on your wording, Id think you're advocating the Nats

I am. I'm on the Nats today.

Today's Braves lineup does NOT hit better than .313.

stevenash · 08-05-13, 04:50 PM

Jayson Werth last minute scratch.
That's a big bat in the middle of order riding the pine.

Bryce Harper CF
Ian Desmond SS
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Wilson Ramos C
Adam LaRoche 1B
Anthony Rendon 2B
Steve Lombardozzi LF
Scott Hairston RF
(Stephen Strasburg P)

BIGDAY · 08-05-13, 04:54 PM

BigDeem5 · 08-05-13, 04:54 PM

Got +114 last night

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	TBF	Pit	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
07/31	vs COL	W 9-0	7.0	2	0	0	0	0	6	8	8	22	95	W(11-5)	--	2.75
07/26	vs STL	W 4-1	7.0	4	1	1	1	0	5	7	13	25	103	W(10-5)	--	2.89
07/21	@ CHW	L 1-3	8.0	5	3	2	0	2	8	8	13	31	101	L(9-5)	--	2.98
07/13	vs CIN	W 5-2	7.0	6	2	2	0	1	7	9	10	27	102	W(9-4)	--	3.02
07/08	@ MIA	W 7-1	6.1	6	1	1	0	2	4	8	13	27	90	--	--	3.05

ATLANTA BRAVES CAREER STATISTICS VS. STEPHEN STRASBURG
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Constanza	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Freddie Freeman	13	5	1	0	1	4	2	2	.385	.412	.692	1.104
Evan Gattis	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	.250	.250	1.000	1.250
Jason Heyward	15	7	1	0	0	1	2	2	.467	.556	.533	1.089
Paul Janish	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Chris Johnson	11	3	0	0	0	3	0	3	.273	.273	.273	.545
Gerald Laird	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Brian McCann	16	6	1	0	1	2	0	4	.375	.375	.625	1.000
Tyler Pastornicky	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ramiro Pena	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Jordan Schafer	5	1	0	0	0	0	3	2	.200	.500	.200	.700
Andrelton Simmons	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Dan Uggla	24	11	2	0	2	8	3	9	.458	.519	.792	1.310
Justin Upton	12	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	.083	.154	.083	.237
B.J. Upton	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	.125	.222	.125	.347
Totals	128	40	6	0	5	22	13	37	.313	.375	.477	.852