Senior Bowl: South -3, O/U 41 1/2
I have a history of getting these postseason college football games right, and last weekend's Shrine Game was another winner. Here is my Senior Bowl analysis.
There's a tendency to want to take the Over in these games, but they rarely even come close. The Shrine game and the Senior Bowl have been low scoring in recent years, and this year's Senior Bowl will be no exception. Take a look at the final scores from the last several years:
2008: 17-16
2007: 27-0
2006: 31-14
2005: 23-13
2004: 28-10
2003: 17-10
This year, all the QB's have been below average in practice, with Pat White of the South and Nathan Brown of the North being downright awful, with consistently inaccurate passes and weak arms. Pat White will be forced to throw in this game instead of run, and that is clearly not his forte. John Parker Wilson of the South has show an equally weak arm.
That leaves Cullen Harper of Clemson from the South squad and Graham Harrell and Rhett Bomar from the North. Harrell has been below average in practice, while the other two have just been average. It is much easier to play defense in these types of games, as the offense has no chemistry...the OL doesn't know where the RBs like the run and the QBs are not familiar with the speed and route running ability of the WRs. The most impressive players all week in practice have been on defense, with BJ Raji of Boston College, Alex Magee of Purdue and the LBs from USC, among others, looking spectacular.
If you must play a side, take the North +3 and hope Nathan Brown plays no more than a quarter. But the better play is Under 41 1/2. Even better, if you tease it (under 47 1/2) with a play that you like in the Super Bowl, you have a sure winner.
Good luck.
There's a tendency to want to take the Over in these games, but they rarely even come close. The Shrine game and the Senior Bowl have been low scoring in recent years, and this year's Senior Bowl will be no exception. Take a look at the final scores from the last several years:
2008: 17-16
2007: 27-0
2006: 31-14
2005: 23-13
2004: 28-10
2003: 17-10
This year, all the QB's have been below average in practice, with Pat White of the South and Nathan Brown of the North being downright awful, with consistently inaccurate passes and weak arms. Pat White will be forced to throw in this game instead of run, and that is clearly not his forte. John Parker Wilson of the South has show an equally weak arm.
That leaves Cullen Harper of Clemson from the South squad and Graham Harrell and Rhett Bomar from the North. Harrell has been below average in practice, while the other two have just been average. It is much easier to play defense in these types of games, as the offense has no chemistry...the OL doesn't know where the RBs like the run and the QBs are not familiar with the speed and route running ability of the WRs. The most impressive players all week in practice have been on defense, with BJ Raji of Boston College, Alex Magee of Purdue and the LBs from USC, among others, looking spectacular.
If you must play a side, take the North +3 and hope Nathan Brown plays no more than a quarter. But the better play is Under 41 1/2. Even better, if you tease it (under 47 1/2) with a play that you like in the Super Bowl, you have a sure winner.
Good luck.
