Is it smart to bet NFL week 1? Anyone have any strong leans?

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  • MJT1212
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-16-09
    • 5124

    #1
    Is it smart to bet NFL week 1? Anyone have any strong leans?
    What about pre season? I'm going to Kansas City @ New Orleans Wk 1 pre season for the hell of it, thinking about putting a small wager on New Orleans -3.5.
  • pinnacle420
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-01-12
    • 6254

    #2
    hahaha its never smart to bet NFL period...... lol...... but with that being said ya ill have a whole spreadsheet ready by kickoff
    Comment
    • JuniorAnalyst
      SBR MVP
      • 03-21-11
      • 2148

      #3
      bet underrated teams
      Comment
      • MJT1212
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-16-09
        • 5124

        #4
        as in
        Comment
        • ChalkyDog
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-02-11
          • 9598

          #5
          Fade teams living off of last years success. Always inflated, nothing to be done about it.

          I am basically chucking darts until week 4, like everyone else.
          Comment
          • ThaTopMoron
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 04-30-10
            • 27020

            #6
            Colts week 1 ML is a lock, Colts won't be living off of last year... they are improved and will be ready as always to give it 100% to win... always show up @ home for the fans

            Luck 7-1 @ home last year as rookie, fluke late game loss only to Jags due to defensive breakdown

            playing Raiders who are going to shoot for the #1 pick

            New O-Coordinator who coached Luck @ Stanford will want to put on a show 1st week

            All the off-season free agent aquisitions will want to put on a show for the home crowd, Landry... new CB's, rookie LB and vet LB's signed + new guys on the O-line to protect Luck, guys on D-line improved too

            Rookies from last year will continue to produce, Hilton, the TE's in the new offensive scheme.... Bradshaw + Ballard RB tandem will be solid, Wayne as usual for the clutch gene

            and H-Bay will want to show off his skills in 1st game for new team

            spread is probably a lock too
            Comment
            • Big Bear
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 11-01-11
              • 43253

              #7
              Seahawks ML -165
              Comment
              • Maddon
                SBR Rookie
                • 07-23-13
                • 3

                #8
                I really like Tampa Bay -2.5 at the Jets
                Injuries and suspensions had a lot to do with it with the Buccaneers flaws on defense last year. Da'Quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn (DL starters) were injured most of the year, leaving offensive to be able to focus on Gerald McCoy. With no pressure on the quarterback, every quarterback had ALL DAY to find their receivers. With a healthy line this year, you're not going to see the same issues they suffered last year. Then you had Aqib Talib getting suspended (again) leaving the Bucs with JUCO type corners trying to cover players like Steve Smith and Julio Jones. But the Bucs have been very busy in the off-season securing the corners by getting Darrelle Revis, and drafting Johnathan Banks. They also go out and get one of the best Safety's in the league, Dashon Goldson, to pair up with last year's first round pick Mark Barron, this could be a very quick turn-around for the Bucs secondary. With these signings, this sound extremely help their passing D to go along with their rushing D that was ranked 1st last year, only averaging 3.5 yards per attempt. I just don't see how the Jets are going to be able to compete on this side of the ball as they clearly look to be rebuilding. Who's going to be the starter, an extremely shaky Mark Sanchez, or a rookie in his first game in Geno Smith. What about Running Back? With the departure of Shonn Greene, will Bilal Powell take over, or will newly aquired Chris Ivory split the carries, being the main 1st and 2nd down back. I also believe that their receiving core will have a lot of problems with the Bucs corners. Santonio Holmes coming off a lisfranc foot injury, Stephen Hill had a few good games, but did have issues dropping passes and runing routes. I do think Jeremy Kerley in the slot could have a nice season this year though. Then you look to the other side of the ball. The one place Tampa Bay excelled was on offense. Freeman, being in a contract year, has shown signs of stardom, and signs of stupidity. When he's on, he's on big time! This year, he'll have all weapons he needs to succeed. The Jets were successful against the pass last year, ranked 7th, allowing 6.1 yards an attempt, and with the additions of Sheldon Richardson on the end, and Dee Milliner (if healthy off of a surgery) at the corner paired up with Antonio Cromartie, they could look pretty solid. Where NY did struggle last year, was against the run, ranked 20th, averaging 4.3 yards an attempt. With a health line, and Doug Martin in his second year after a brilliant rookie season, I look for the Bucs to take advantage of the running game. The Jets focusing on stopping the run bit on play action, and Tampa takes advantage of Freeman's arm and Jackson's speed.

                Bottom line, comparing both sides of the ball, I really like the Buccaneers to win this game on the road and getting them while the line is under a FG, I think is tremendous value.
                Comment
                • thewhiteguy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-21-12
                  • 1082

                  #9
                  Fade Gabbert. That is all.
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    I did not even look at pre season yet

                    Setttle down MJT

                    Your an injury away from killing your bets
                    Comment
                    • BigDeem5
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-26-11
                      • 17191

                      #11
                      Hammer the fuking Chiefs
                      Comment
                      • TheMoneyShot
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-14-07
                        • 28672

                        #12
                        It's smart to wager every day once football starts.
                        Comment
                        • Jimmy0607
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-09-09
                          • 7785

                          #13
                          Bucs -2 is a gift
                          Comment
                          • Big Bear
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 11-01-11
                            • 43253

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Jimmy0607
                            Bucs -2 is a gift
                            it does look good.
                            Comment
                            • MJT1212
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-16-09
                              • 5124

                              #15
                              Originally posted by jjgold
                              I did not even look at pre season yet

                              Setttle down MJT

                              Your an injury away from killing your bets
                              Good point JJ, definitely need to wait until pre season is over. I completely overlooked that very important fact. Thanks
                              Comment
                              • easyliving
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 06-25-12
                                • 8876

                                #16
                                never lay over a fg in preseason.
                                Comment
                                • GunShard
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 03-05-10
                                  • 10032

                                  #17
                                  I avoid betting preseason. I prefer to bet on the regular season and playoffs.
                                  Comment
                                  • frogsrangers
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 04-25-12
                                    • 5792

                                    #18
                                    I remember lots of people having New Orleans in Week 1 last year in survivor pools, parlays and other contests. I remember being at the Wynn during Week 1 last year and the atmosphere was like that of a funeral because I think everyone there except me had a bet on the Saints. Although Houston -9.5 against Miami last year was as big of a Week 1 lock as it gets.
                                    Comment
                                    • BIGDAY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 02-17-10
                                      • 48245

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      I did not even look at pre season yet

                                      Setttle down MJT

                                      Your an injury away from killing your bets


                                      Listen to CornBin.
                                      NFL is about weekly reports and injury reports.


                                      However, if you want my opinion, Packers +5.5 and Vikings +3

                                      GL this season pal.
                                      Comment
                                      • Jimmy0607
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-09-09
                                        • 7785

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Big Bear
                                        it does look good.
                                        It will be around -4.5that sunday
                                        Comment
                                        • easyliving
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-25-12
                                          • 8876

                                          #21
                                          panthers+3.5 at home is the best play of week 1
                                          Comment
                                          • JRWnPHX
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 07-21-13
                                            • 22

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by frogsrangers
                                            I remember lots of people having New Orleans in Week 1 last year in survivor pools, parlays and other contests. I remember being at the Wynn during Week 1 last year and the atmosphere was like that of a funeral because I think everyone there except me had a bet on the Saints. Although Houston -9.5 against Miami last year was as big of a Week 1 lock as it gets.
                                            I was in Vegas that weekend as well. I told my friend to take the over in the Saints/Skins game, but he took the Saints and the points. Along with the Texans, the Falcons were a lock as well @ KC.
                                            Comment
                                            • THoll702
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 02-21-10
                                              • 180

                                              #23
                                              Raider Fader.
                                              Comment
                                              • ronald
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-31-05
                                                • 4919

                                                #24
                                                "Take the dogs and you won't get hurt."
                                                - jjgold
                                                Comment
                                                • Cuse0323
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-09-09
                                                  • 30169

                                                  #25
                                                  Hurts to be square week 1. I think the public gets buried this year. I'll get buried regardless but I'm gonna pretend to be sharp.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Big Bear
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 11-01-11
                                                    • 43253

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Cuse0323
                                                    Hurts to be square week 1. I think the public gets buried this year. I'll get buried regardless but I'm gonna pretend to be sharp.

                                                    i know what i need to do is take a few weeks to observe before i start to gamble on NFL...

                                                    dont try to hard to be sharp, just play it like you see it.

                                                    home teams always win on monday night
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Cuse0323
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-09-09
                                                      • 30169

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                      i know what i need to do is take a few weeks to observe before i start to gamble on NFL...

                                                      dont try to hard to be sharp, just play it like you see it.

                                                      home teams always win on monday night
                                                      I think week 1 is a great time to pounce on lines that are off but you gotta know your shit. I'm gonna do this more with college and find soft lines to jump on if I can get the bankroll up by then. NFL is death, maybe not week 1 but in the first few weeks every bettor will be chasing.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pixster
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-25-11
                                                        • 1386

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by easyliving
                                                        panthers+3.5 at home is the best play of week 1
                                                        Don't know about it being the best play of week 1, but I like CAR as well for the following reasons: 1) Seahawks cross country road game, 2) Seahawks play the 49ers the following week, and 3) Seahawks Percy Harvin placed on PUP list due to recent hip injury which may require surgery based on second opinion the WR is seeking.

                                                        Of course, the rest of training camp has to play out as does Pre-season before I pull the trigger on this one.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • chopperocker
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-16-09
                                                          • 1784

                                                          #29
                                                          Detroit -3, this is from a Viking fan.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • rcene
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-28-12
                                                            • 3036

                                                            #30
                                                            Miami and New England.

                                                            Any number, but right now pick and -6'
                                                            Comment
                                                            • keel44
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-01-09
                                                              • 3363

                                                              #31
                                                              Green Bay +5 @ SF
                                                              Indy -6.5 vs Oak
                                                              Mia -1.5 @ Cle

                                                              Take these and your bound to win 2 of 3
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bigballa
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 10-18-12
                                                                • 429

                                                                #32
                                                                would never play preseason, really is a flip of the coin who will be out there playing, regular season for both nfl and college it is wise to wait till week 2 or 3 as a few posters above have mentioned teams that should be good arent really good and its wise to wait and see then start hitting it hard a couple weeks in...all the best on the season my man
                                                                Comment
                                                                • OTL
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-08-10
                                                                  • 2433

                                                                  #33
                                                                  My favourite early season wagers have been to bet against the Chargers. With Norv Turner gone though I think I'm going to have to find something else.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LetsGoPats
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 07-30-13
                                                                    • 17

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Thought Redskins were overrated last year, and Philly's roster was much better than their record showed. They simply quit on Andy Reid. So I am keeping my eye on Philly for week 1.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Jotoole0821
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 01-23-13
                                                                      • 857

                                                                      #35
                                                                      whats wrong with houston -3 against SD?
                                                                      Comment
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