WEEK 1 LINES - NCAA (F) Anything stuck out?

[gojetsgomoxies]

It's a neutral game....chick fil a kickoff classic in the Georgia Dome

Va Tech is probably going to get smoked, they have a QB capable of doing some big things but they're overmatched badly in the trenches......Bama or nothing

thanks. didn't know that.

[gojetsgomoxies]

It's a neutral game....chick fil a kickoff classic in the Georgia Dome

Va Tech is probably going to get smoked, they have a QB capable of doing some big things but they're overmatched badly in the trenches......Bama or nothing

thanks, i didn't know that...

unlv +17 @ minnesota looks good EDIT: still like it, but somehow thought unlv had improved alot last year. power ratings don't back that up..... i don't like minnesota to trounce any BCS team.

[blackeyeshamus]

Love the thread.
Bases have me talking to myself right now, so I'm using the all star break as an opportunity to work on college football. Actually thinking very seriously about taking some time off between now and NCAAFB...dog days of summer have me feeling like Harvey Keitel in Bad Lieutenant when I'm driving around in my car listening to baseball on the radio.
BOL, gentlemen.

[blackeyeshamus]

Oh, by the way, I believe two road dogs win straight up: Georgia and Boise State...imho.

[GunShard]

I'll fade Florida and Florida State.

[frogsrangers]

thanks, i didn't know that...

unlv +17 @ minnesota looks good EDIT: still like it, but somehow thought unlv had improved alot last year. power ratings don't back that up..... i don't like minnesota to trounce any BCS team.

I took UNLV at home last year where they lost in Triple Overtime and they covered, and I do think UNLV is due for a big improvement this year. However Minnesota also returns pretty much everyone from their team last year too. Minnesota won by 3 in Vegas last year, do you think home field is worth 14.5 more points in this year's matchup considering both teams are pretty much returning all their key players?

[J_On_A_Roll]

Guys take a look at the duke vs North carolina central. -39 is way too much offense for duke to cover, and they just lost half of it with Q.B Renfree. Running game is average, just take a look at last year game between these two teams. They just barely covered 35 point spread, winning by 37. even if North carolina central dont score, duke dont have that much offense. Im telling you

[gojetsgomoxies]

I took UNLV at home last year where they lost in Triple Overtime and they covered, and I do think UNLV is due for a big improvement this year. However Minnesota also returns pretty much everyone from their team last year too. Minnesota won by 3 in Vegas last year, do you think home field is worth 14.5 more points in this year's matchup considering both teams are pretty much returning all their key players?

i like UNLV alot here (although i think part of it is that i think it's a program that should be good.... los angeles, miami, las vegas shouldn't be hard sells to football recruits).... devils advocate would say that game in vegas was an aberation. i did think unlv improved alot last year, but doesn't seem to register in power ratings.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Guys take a look at the duke vs North carolina central. -39 is way too much offense for duke to cover, and they just lost half of it with Q.B Renfree. Running game is average, just take a look at last year game between these two teams. They just barely covered 35 point spread, winning by 37. even if North carolina central dont score, duke dont have that much offense. Im telling you

makes total sense. renfro was really excellent and it seemed like he was the starting QB there forever (kinda like donovan mcnabb at syracuse, landry jones at okla or durant at NC........ seemed like those guys played 6 or 7 years but of course they didn't)

[Huckleberry Pig]

loving this thread, lots of good insight here. keep it up. As an Arkansas alum and big fan of the SEC I will say I think Arkansas will have a better year than most think. If last year proved anything it's that you can have a lot of talent on the field but without coaching you are toast. Our O-line should be better this year, anchored by one of the best centers in the game. Also attained one of the best OL coaches in the nation over the offseason so I'm expecting a better running game (esp with Bielema at the helm). The big question on O is the QB position, but the starter was a highly recruited QB but he may have some growing pains. Also worried about the WR position a bit as we are a little thin there. However, if we can establish a solid running game, this should make for some easier throws out of PA for the new QB.

On Defense we should have one of the top 3-5 DL's in the SEC. What killed us last year was our undersized LB's and secondary. Our coaching on D last year was abysmal and I'm hoping with the addition of Randy Shannon coaching LBs and Chris Ash as DC we can formulate some better game plans than last year. Should be an improvement here, which shouldnt be hard because we were terrible here last year.

Overall, think there may be some value on the Hogs because of the fiasco that happened last season. What to look out for though - teams that pass the ball a lot. Gave us HUGE problems last year, esp with our terrible secondary. However, we should do better against teams that like to run the ball because of our stout O-line.

Saw someone mention the ULL game, I really think we should win by 3TD's given what should be our dominance on the O and D line of that game. I like us to cover.

[frogsrangers]

loving this thread, lots of good insight here. keep it up. As an Arkansas alum and big fan of the SEC I will say I think Arkansas will have a better year than most think. If last year proved anything it's that you can have a lot of talent on the field but without coaching you are toast. Our O-line should be better this year, anchored by one of the best centers in the game. Also attained one of the best OL coaches in the nation over the offseason so I'm expecting a better running game (esp with Bielema at the helm). The big question on O is the QB position, but the starter was a highly recruited QB but he may have some growing pains. Also worried about the WR position a bit as we are a little thin there. However, if we can establish a solid running game, this should make for some easier throws out of PA for the new QB.

On Defense we should have one of the top 3-5 DL's in the SEC. What killed us last year was our undersized LB's and secondary. Our coaching on D last year was abysmal and I'm hoping with the addition of Randy Shannon coaching LBs and Chris Ash as DC we can formulate some better game plans than last year. Should be an improvement here, which shouldnt be hard because we were terrible here last year.

Overall, think there may be some value on the Hogs because of the fiasco that happened last season. What to look out for though - teams that pass the ball a lot. Gave us HUGE problems last year, esp with our terrible secondary. However, we should do better against teams that like to run the ball because of our stout O-line.

Saw someone mention the ULL game, I really think we should win by 3TD's given what should be our dominance on the O and D line of that game. I like us to cover.

I think ULL is better than the ULM team that beat you last year. ULL is experienced and I think has what it takes to keep up and sneak up on Arkansas if they are still going through growing pains and transition malfunctions.

[frogsrangers]

Guys take a look at the duke vs North carolina central. -39 is way too much offense for duke to cover, and they just lost half of it with Q.B Renfree. Running game is average, just take a look at last year game between these two teams. They just barely covered 35 point spread, winning by 37. even if North carolina central dont score, duke dont have that much offense. Im telling you

I would never bet on a MEAC team.

[stevenash]

Love the thread.
Bases have me talking to myself right now, so I'm using the all star break as an opportunity to work on college football. Actually thinking very seriously about taking some time off between now and NCAAFB...dog days of summer have me feeling like Harvey Keitel in Bad Lieutenant when I'm driving around in my car listening to baseball on the radio.
BOL, gentlemen.

Thanks, I am bases guy myself, but I thought it would be a good discussion thread while baseball took a week off.

[J_On_A_Roll]

I would never bet on a MEAC team.

Thats true, but im goin off the fact that duke aint gonna score 39 points anyway. Might get 2 off defense and 1 off offense. They have a nice core on defense but like i said half of their offense is out the window with Renfree. Trust me i know about those weak ass meac teams.

[FrozenMAN]

ILLINOIS -7.5 vs Southern

[Huckleberry Pig]

I think ULL is better than the ULM team that beat you last year. ULL is experienced and I think has what it takes to keep up and sneak up on Arkansas if they are still going through growing pains and transition malfunctions.

the more I look at it the more I'm actually starting to agree with you.

[JR007]

I'd would wait for the newsletters to come out, they concentrate on how many players lost on the teams due to graduation from last year on both sides of the ball......early on lines are set based on this, least what I have read

[J_On_A_Roll]

Can anybody tell me any good newsletters to read about an in depth returning starters. both offense and defense. Thanks. Also a stat book.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Texas A &M is the new Oregon. There will be like 90 total points scored in the A & M -Rice game. Bet the OVER there.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Can anybody tell me any good newsletters to read about an in depth returning starters. both offense and defense. Thanks. Also a stat book.

Blue Ribbon and Steele.

about a month ahead of when I look at numbers and give a shit.

[BeatTheJerk]

Good info by frogs, I will take his picks into consideration.

[curtrambus]

Wisconsin is going to beat the piss out of Umass. Who didn't blow Umass out last year?

[Louisvillekid1]

ILLINOIS -7.5 vs Southern

Prob will be #1 public play

[Givemhell Horns]

Frogs, I can see TCU shutting down LSU and will definitely be taking the pts. Hope like hell they win.

[SamDiamond]

I would never bet Illinois until Beckman got his feet under him.

2-10, and 3-9 ATS? No thanks.

Watching Lousianna Tech completely overwhelm him last year wasn't good for him. Illinois didnt just play poorly last year, their coaching staff looked overwhelmed.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Can anybody tell me any good newsletters to read about an in depth returning starters. both offense and defense. Thanks. Also a stat book.

philsteele.com blog has quite a bit of good free stuff... his mag, lindy's, athlon's and sporting news all are good mags probably give you what you need.

see my thread about returning QB's.... there's a link to an extremely detailed list of returning starters.

[BigdaddyQH]

Interesting thread, but I will wait until the lines come out in Vegas to make my decisions. I do have 28 GOY Wagers.

[lyon804]

Who is setting those opener's? I do not see bookmaker with any posted lines yet.

[stevenash]

Who is setting those opener's? I do not see bookmaker with any posted lines yet.

These came from 5Dimes, these lines were up last week.

[ChalkyDog]

This thread has given me the full on shakes. Great thread Nash. Really good insight by Frogs.

Unfortunately, I cannot add to this thread yet. Haven't really started doing my work. Pain in the ass for us spreadsheet assholes that work with numbers a lot, during this time of the year, where there is zero reliable data to process.

[gojetsgomoxies]

where can u get up to date lines that don't require user name/password? a little surprised at how many sites have changed to that.... i don't see the lines here or at pinnacle.

is unlv still anywhere near +17 at minnesota?

[Urbanwildlife]

"

[frogsrangers]

Week 1 is the time to get the best values, just look for the teams that are either over valued or under valued based on the program's reputation.

[PAYTON20]

Auburn should have no problem covering 13.5 against Washington St

[Brutus84]

Tulsa -2.5