Pomeroy Predictions For Monday

[LT Profits]

Only 5 Night Games, so I'll list them all:

Pittsburgh 80, Syracuse 69
UAB 74, La Lafayette 56
Kansas 73, Texas A&M 61
Providence 75, Cincinnati 70
Western Carolina 84, Georgia Southern 79

[onthewhat]

Pomeroy not good tool to use for gambling

[durito]

Pomeroy not good tool to use for gambling

Care to explain why.

[onthewhat]

Blindly follow the guy then

[durito]

Blindly follow the guy then

That's not what I said.

You said the above simply because you saw me write it in another thread. You have to no idea as to why.

His ratings actually form a very solid first step towards developing profitable models, there is just additional work to be done. If you have some additional thoughts on the subject feel free to share.

[smitch124]

I would like to know why...

[smitch124]

I've noticed that the road teams are a little overrated and the totals are a bit high, but thats over a smallish sample.

[onthewhat]

I am a college basketball fan, I know how his ratings are made, etc.

His predictions should be used to play Pitt -9 because he has them to win by 11.

[durito]

I am a college basketball fan, I know how his ratings are made, etc.

So what then are the hazards of using such ratings to gamble on college basketball?

[curious]

I've noticed that the road teams are a little overrated and the totals are a bit high, but thats over a smallish sample.

His road teams are always overrated. Not sure why. Perhaps he does not figure in home court advantage.

[curious]

That's not what I said.

You said the above simply because you saw me write it in another thread. You have to no idea as to why.

His ratings actually form a very solid first step towards developing profitable models, there is just additional work to be done. If you have some additional thoughts on the subject feel free to share.

Durito,
What additional filters would you use once you had Kenpom's ratings for a given game?

[pico]

Only 5 Night Games, so I'll list them all:

Pittsburgh 80, Syracuse 69
UAB 74, La Lafayette 56
Kansas 73, Texas A&M 61
Providence 75, Cincinnati 70
Western Carolina 84, Georgia Southern 79

is this what he listed on his website or you calculated them yourself?

[curious]

is this what he listed on his website or you calculated them yourself?

Those are the plays listed on the site.

Here is an example (Pittsburgh) http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Pittsburgh

[LT Profits]

Yes, they are listed. I just organized them all on one page, as I wish his site would do.

[pico]

thanks curious.

[LT Profits]

Pitt's poor foul shooting could make things dicey at -9.

[pico]

Yes, they are listed. I just organized them all on one page, as I wish his site would do.

nice work

do you ever look at covers consensus picks?

[mmike032]

how accurate have these predictions been in the past?

[losturmarbles]

His road teams are always overrated. Not sure why. Perhaps he does not figure in home court advantage.

(i believe) he adjusts the offensive and defensive efficiencies by 1.4% for both teams. and then uses those for the pythagorean equation.

[TPowell]

LT are these similar to Sagarin or however you spell it? I know those were about how likely a team was to win the game, not neccesarily by how many

[LT Profits]

It's a matter of opinion of course, but I personally feel Pomeroys are more accurate. I am a big fan of his PPP methodogy (points per possession), and he even rates individual players, which makes it easier to adjust team ratings for key injuries.

[so im zach]

(i believe) he adjusts the offensive and defensive efficiencies by 1.4% for both teams. and then uses those for the pythagorean equation.

home team = pythagorean winning % times 1.4 I believe.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Anyone care to make a list of the results?

[pico]

pomroy was right about kanssa

[onthewhat]

3-2 ATS i think

[TPowell]

everybody should check out the site, it def. has some stats that are useful to us as gamblers