What line holds more value?

[AgainstAllOdds]

FIRST HALF

Philly -3 +110
Philly -2.5 -120

I know half points usually hold more value for halfs, but is it really 30 cents better?

[durito]

-3 +110

[Iwinyourmoney]

I personally would take the -2.5. Ya there is more "value" in -3 +110 vs. -2.5 -120. What good is value when it has a good chance of pushing. How is the 1st half really going to land on a difference of 2 points unless its a tie at half? I would rather push then win any day of the week

[durito]

I would rather push then win any day of the week

And I would rather make more money in the long run.

The 3 pushes far less at the half than it does for the game.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Durito, the difference at -2.5 vs -3 is clear as day I think. At half it will tied, or a team will lead by 3 or more. Find me NFL stats this year that at halftime the margin was between 1 & 2 points at half time, my guess is there are maybe 3 games this year (max) at that margin

[Iwinyourmoney]

Take the extra juice and take the 2.5. Way better win expectancy than at 3

[dwaechte]

This isn't even close. Giving 30 cents would still be terrible value even if it was the full game. -3 +110 is the bet.

[durito]

Durito, the difference at -2.5 vs -3 is clear as day I think. At half it will tied, or a team will lead by 3 or more. Find me NFL stats this year that at halftime the margin was between 1 & 2 points at half time, my guess is there are maybe 3 games this year (max) at that margin

This is not the way to approach this question. The question is how often will the 3 push. With that info you can determine how much that 1/2 pt is worth. The 3 pushes in the first half around 5.5% of the time (which is actually less than the 4) making the fair price for that 1/2 around 12 cents (which is way less than the 25 cents it's worth for the full game)

Meaning if you can get -3 +110, you should be playing -2.5 at -102 or better only. -120 is WAY worse.

[BigOrangeTitans]

It depends a lot upon how strongly you feel this will land on 3. I would guess without lookin at the numbers that the 5.5% could vary simply due to the fact of how hard these lines are hit

[pokernut9999]

Since Arizona will be ahead at the half , neither one holds any value.

[durito]

Since Arizona will be ahead at the half , neither one holds any value.

value can be negative.

i wasn't answering the question with any assumption about either being +EV, simply which one was preferable.

[durito]

fwiw pinnacle is charging 20 cents for that half. i'd lean then towards it being worth more than the 13 i suggested.

[pokernut9999]

value can be negative.

i wasn't answering the question with any assumption about either being +EV, simply which one was preferable.

I was just having fun

[Chi_archie]

-3 ya meatball

[pokernut9999]

Since Arizona will be ahead at the half , neither one holds any value.