A doggy just that might bark really loud tonight

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65724

    #1
    A doggy just that might bark really loud tonight
    Brewers with Gallardo +180 over Nationals tonight has been talking to me all day (so to speak)

    Gallardo has more than good enough stuff to silence the overrated Nats bats.
    You don't think the National bats are overrated???

    Nats bats are:
    Almost dead last (28th ranked) in runs scored, 28th ranked in batting average, 29th ranked in on base percentange, and 20th ranked in slugging.

    Like I mentioned, Gallardo has very good stuff, his only problem is he's inconsistent.
    He was good in April, butt ugly in May, and pitching a lot better in June.
    Throw out the last start against the Cubbies, the three previous starts he had Gallardo allowed zero earned runs.
    22 consecutive innings of uneared run baseball up until his last start suggests to me he may have found his form.

    Nationals have trouble with Gallardo:

    WASHINGTON NATIONALS CAREER STATISTICS VS. YOVANI GALLARDO
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Roger Bernadina 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .400 .500 .400 .900
    Ian Desmond 10 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 .200 .273 .300 .573
    Danny Espinosa 10 2 1 0 1 3 1 1 .200 .273 .600 .873
    Bryce Harper 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .333
    Adam LaRoche 24 8 2 0 2 5 3 7 .333 .407 .667 1.074
    Stephen Lombardozzi 3 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 .333 .333 1.000 1.333
    Wilson Ramos 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Denard Span 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Kurt Suzuki 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Chad Tracy 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000
    Jayson Werth 11 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 .182 .167 .182 .348
    Ryan Zimmerman 8 2 0 0 1 4 3 4 .250 .455 .625 1.080
    Totals 100 22 4 1 4 17 9 27 .220 .282 .400 .682
    Take Bernadina out of the equation who is not starting, that .220 average goes to about .212
    Bryce Harper is back, how sharp can he be tonight, he has missed 31 games, figure he needs about a week to get back to 100 percent game day ready.

    Nobody is saying Zimmerman is horse crap, he is not, I am not ignoring the 11-3 start, but -205 on Zimmy backed by a team that can't score much, whose opponent is very capable of matching him pitch for pitch is whack.
    And as long as ESPN and others keep sucking the Nationals and Davey Johnson, and everything else National roosters, the lines will always be inflated.

    Segura, the other Car-Go, A-Ram, and LuCroy 2-5 in the order can touch Zimmy up.

    Listen guys, I'm not here yelling this -330 game is the lock of the century bet your next new born kind on this, I am not even saying the Brewers are a stone cold lock.

    I'm not here to tell you to play, pass, or fade, I am saying this doggy just might both bark and bite tonight.

    I am saying +180 on Gallardo tonight, in this spot, is worth a .5 or 1* play.
  • Louisvillekid1
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-17-07
    • 52143

    #2
    I played the Under 3.5 FF for the max...

    So yeah, I'm also expecting a strong performance from 'Vani
    Comment
    • Big Bear
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-01-11
      • 43253

      #3
      Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

      i will need to make sure
      Ryan braun
      Aramis Ramirez
      Gomez
      Weeks
      are all in da line-up
      Comment
      • pattymayo
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-19-09
        • 10221

        #4
        -135 on the +1.5 is more than reasonable in what you would assume should be a pitchers duel
        Comment
        • Louisvillekid1
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-17-07
          • 52143

          #5
          Braun is on 15 day dl
          Comment
          • Vinnie Paz
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-27-12
            • 12177

            #6
            Yeah I as well took under ff, probably add a bit more on it. I agree though this is basically a pk until the shitpens get involved... milw with the better lineup actually
            Comment
            • Grizzlies918
              SBR Sharp
              • 05-29-12
              • 371

              #7
              Originally posted by Big Bear
              Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

              i will need to make sure
              Ryan braun
              Aramis Ramirez
              Gomez
              Weeks
              are all in da line-up
              Braun on DL
              Comment
              • Big Bear
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-01-11
                • 43253

                #8
                Originally posted by Grizzlies918
                Braun on DL
                is that so they cant test him for roids?
                Comment
                • 2daBank
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-26-09
                  • 88966

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Big Bear
                  is that so they cant test him for roids?
                  they already know he juices, they dont seem to mind.
                  Comment
                  • Mikail
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-19-09
                    • 21689

                    #10
                    I am warming up to this. The more I look into this game the more Milwaukee is tempting a play.
                    Comment
                    • Smoke
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-09-09
                      • 48111

                      #11
                      Nashy noooooooooooooooooooooooooo
                      Comment
                      • ThingsFallApart
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-24-10
                        • 880

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Grizzlies918
                        Braun on DL
                        He hasnt played in about 3 weeks now. You sure you guys know what youre talking about if you didn't know Braun has been out since early June?
                        Comment
                        • ridims
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-15-10
                          • 3863

                          #13
                          wind blowing in or out? how is the weather looking like?

                          thanks
                          Comment
                          • jinxpro1313
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 05-01-13
                            • 171

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Big Bear
                            Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

                            i will need to make sure
                            Ryan braun
                            Aramis Ramirez
                            Gomez
                            Weeks
                            are all in da line-up
                            lol @ braun.
                            & noone including the nats give a fuk about weeks in the lineup.

                            i like the play in theory nash, but I can't put my hard earned money on this shitty team. Under if anything.

                            gl guys
                            Comment
                            • Jago2008
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-18-11
                              • 3047

                              #15
                              Comment
                              • GUMMO77
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-23-10
                                • 9294

                                #16
                                Another great writeup, Nasher.

                                You got some




                                GL, bud!
                                Comment
                                • El Nino
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 05-03-12
                                  • 18426

                                  #17
                                  Gallardo too schizo for my liking. I don't see the Brewers getting 4 on Zimmerman.
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65724

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by El Nino
                                    Gallardo too schizo for my liking.
                                    If he wasn't so schizo, he wouldn't be +180.
                                    Like I said, it's not a lock, Gallardo brings his 'A' game, the payoff is 9:5
                                    If he doesn't, then oh well, it's not a play to go heavy on, it's a play that has a good chance of cashing nicely is what I am saying.
                                    Comment
                                    • El Nino
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 05-03-12
                                      • 18426

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Big Bear
                                      Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

                                      i will need to make sure
                                      Ryan braun
                                      Aramis Ramirez
                                      Gomez
                                      Weeks
                                      are all in da line-up
                                      Unreal you don't know that Braun has been on the DL? Big Bear, I feel like you are talking out of your ass 90% of the time. Aoki + Lucroy > Ramirez + Weeks
                                      Comment
                                      • SteelRain
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-13-12
                                        • 2806

                                        #20
                                        took the brewers -1.5 +270

                                        either go big or go home
                                        Comment
                                        • StevenSuarez
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-19-12
                                          • 675

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by El Nino
                                          Unreal you don't know that Braun has been on the DL? Big Bear, I feel like you are talking out of your ass 90% of the time. Aoki + Lucroy > Ramirez + Weeks
                                          This. And don't forget about Segura.
                                          Comment
                                          • alamo
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-21-09
                                            • 7131

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by ridims
                                            wind blowing in or out? how is the weather looking like?

                                            thanks

                                            Good question....anyone ?
                                            Comment
                                            • El Nino
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 05-03-12
                                              • 18426

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by stevenash
                                              If he wasn't so schizo, he wouldn't be +180.
                                              Like I said, it's not a lock, Gallardo brings his 'A' game, the payoff is 9:5
                                              If he doesn't, then oh well, it's not a play to go heavy on, it's a play that has a good chance of cashing nicely is what I am saying.
                                              True. Brewers lineup is incredibly weak 6-9. You have Harper coming back, all signs point to the Nats. Hope it cashes for you though. I wasn't expecting Zimermann to be -190 that is for sure.
                                              Comment
                                              • whtsox13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-02-12
                                                • 1401

                                                #24
                                                Well written Mr. Nash. After watching most of their 14 inning game yesterday I can't put any money on the Brewers right now, coldest team in MLB in my opinion. Good luck, good post!
                                                Comment
                                                • Mikail
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-19-09
                                                  • 21689

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Rod1010
                                                  Anything can happen in a baseball game, there's no point in wasting your time capping games.. You're better off picking flipping a coin instead of wasting time with these useless stats.
                                                  I definitely fee where your coming from but still we have to use something when it comes to capping games and statistics, trends etc. are the best we got but in the end it usually comes down to the ball bouncing a certain way or whether or not a player was out clubbing late the night before.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 65724

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Rod1010
                                                    Anything can happen in a baseball game, there's no point in wasting your time capping games.. You're better off picking flipping a coin instead of wasting time with these useless stats.
                                                    What stats did I present are useless?
                                                    Is football a unpredictable game where anything can happen?

                                                    I spend 90 minutes to 2 hours a morning capping games, these so called useless stats you refer to made me (and others on these boards can attest to this) a crap load of money last year, and we are doing well again this first half.

                                                    But thanks for your valued opinion.
                                                    Drop by again any time
                                                    Comment
                                                    • chabooky386
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-22-12
                                                      • 1873

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by SteelRain
                                                      took the brewers -1.5 +270

                                                      either go big or go home
                                                      go home...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DeezusWINSTREAKT
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-03-13
                                                        • 1598

                                                        #28
                                                        Yea dude weeks is useless r u 4real. Aoki is important for sure. Same w others. I WANT WEEKS IN LINEUP Every time I bet vs Brewers.


                                                        Nationals hit 1 hr a game for over a year recently, and scored 13 runs yesterday. I'm taking nationals.


                                                        Right now is right now To me. I threw away stats from b4 these last weeks.
                                                        Good luck!!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65724

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by DeezusWINSTREAKT

                                                          Nationals hit 1 hr a game for over a year recently

                                                          ?????




                                                          ?????
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-02-12
                                                            • 19734

                                                            #30
                                                            i can't see zimmermann losing at home.

                                                            and it's just a weird line, begging you to take milwacky.

                                                            not touching this game.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • konck
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-17-06
                                                              • 12554

                                                              #31
                                                              Welcome back Nasher I dont know if you noticed but when we get trolls in our handicaping thread we hit them with the ignore list its awesome just go to settings then edit list. Im gonna play Brewers/Minny in a little parlay I have a parlay with Jays/Marlins that im rooting for alreadyIgnore List

                                                              • <input name="listbits[ignore][150933]" id="usercheck_150933" type="checkbox" checked="checked" value="150933"> daimoshokage<input name="listbits[ignore_original][150933]" type="hidden" value="150933">
                                                              • <input name="listbits[ignore][483498]" id="usercheck_483498" type="checkbox" checked="checked" value="483498"> Gus Fring<input name="listbits[ignore_original][483498]" type="hidden" value="483498">
                                                              • <input name="listbits[ignore][85877]" id="usercheck_85877" type="checkbox" checked="checked" value="85877"> JMobile<input name="listbits[ignore_original][85877]" type="hidden" value="85877">
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                                                              • <input name="listbits[ignore][283727]" id="usercheck_283727" type="checkbox" checked="checked" value="283727"> The Kraken<input name="listbits[ignore_original][283727]" type="hidden" value="283727">
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Smutbucket
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-14-08
                                                                • 4002

                                                                #32
                                                                I just sprinkled some on milw since the card was so shitty I didnt want to look into any of the games. thanks nasher....

                                                                what you think about First Five +.5 (+140) ...seems inviting to me also....even +1.5 at -110.....zimm always wins some low scoring games.....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DeezusWINSTREAKT
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-03-13
                                                                  • 1598

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I do agree gallardo has potential to turn their bats more quiet
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mikmik
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 05-13-12
                                                                    • 5457

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Well hondo is on Washington. I'll go with brew plus runs
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • meyer0416
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-19-11
                                                                      • 1082

                                                                      #35
                                                                      n/m
                                                                      Comment
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