Take Spurs series now or wait ?? Need advice

[Pete0]

TL;DR below

Spurs are my team and it is my hunch that Duncan and Pop will both walk off the NBA regardless of series outcome. I would very much like to see them win a ring - its now or never ! and then probably into rebuilding mode.

Parker is playing out of his mind and will be no match for a 50% Wade. James is James and Duncan is Duncan. Coaching advantage is definitely towards Spurs. K. Leonard, Tiago and the Red Mamba are very underrated players. Their ball movement is fantastic and this veteran bunch dont fkk around.

Now, here's my dilemma. I would like to take the Spurs series to Pa-pa-Pound town, but I'm torn between taking them right now OR waiting after game 1 - if Heat win game 1 i will get a better price. In my head, series will be tied for sure before game 3. But what about the long layoff ? Does it favor the Heat coming off a big gm7 win ? or Does it favor the Spurs with Pop and players watching tape, taking notes and strategizing. Do I take the Spurs series now or wait till game 2? Guessing momentum favors Heat now with a spurs coming out a bit flat after 9 days of no action. Still going to make some smaller bets during the series, live and props but not as big as the series wager. Thoughts ??


TL;DR version - OP wants to take Spurs series and believes it will be 1-1 going into gm3. But not sure if Spurs take game1 or game 2 based on long lay off/preparation factor. Leaning Spurs coming out a bit flat game 1, but win game 2. Thoughts ?

[nflguru1]

This is a good question. I was wondering the same. The 2-3-2 format also favors the spurs if they can steal one and they should hypothetical be rusty from being 8+ days off

[MadTiger]

I think you max out value on your Spurs series bet with a Heat game 1 home victory.

The Heat played quite a bit more than the Spurs, and they are tired and mentally drained. Should be a great series.

[TheMoneyShot]

Pete... I wish you luck... I just don't think San Antonio has a chance. I think they cover some games... but they won't win the series. Best of luck.

[boeing power]

If you really like the spurs why risk getting a bad number if they win game 1, bet them now.

I hope they win but doubt they will.

[blankoblanco]

I would just bet them now. I think the "too much rest" thing is overstated and that the Spurs can definitely win game 1. Even if they are rusty at the start of the game, Heat will probably let them hang around after just playing their hearts out in a game 7 -- Miami seems to only play intense defense in crucial bounce-back games, and game 1 isn't crucial. You lose more value when SA wins game 1 than you gain when they lose it.

[Sport_Fish]

Wait after game 1. Home teams rarely every lose game 1 of finals

[CHAZ]

It depends...

if they win game one their series price goes down and vice versa

[Tofudog]

It depends...

if they win game one their series price goes down and vice versa

Such a deep quote duuude

[Tofudog]

I would take them before game 1 though. It took Spoelstra the whole series to figure out what to do against the Pacers.. If any team doesn't need to shake off rust I think its the Spurs..

I will say if the Heat win again this year, its gonna be real penetrating old watching them make their way to the finals the next year

[Shafted69]

if you really like the spurs series, wait until they are down in the series 3-0 or 3-1.

you will get +2000 or more.

[CanuckG]

This is a good question. I was wondering the same. The 2-3-2 format also favors the spurs if they can steal one and they should hypothetical be rusty from being 8+ days off

2-3-2 format does not favor the Spurs. Highly unlikely a team wins all 3 home games. Imagine Spurs down 3-2 going into Game 6 and 7 @ MIA good luck

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/730011-nbas-2-3-2-format-favors-home-court-advantage-nhl-got-it-right

[Deuce]

I faded them against the Lakers. Didn't you?

[blankoblanco]

if you really like the spurs series, wait until they are down in the series 3-0 or 3-1.

you will get +2000 or more.

Anyone who likes Spurs in the series probably doesn't think they're going to be down 3-0 or 3-1... especially with Miami having the last 2 games at home

[Pete0]

Appreciate all the responses.

Please Mr. F Mayweather!, take all ur winnings from gm7 and dump it on Miami Gm1

[Goat Milk]

Heat win game 1 and Spurs will win games where crucial adjustments are made. me and popovic will watch the film together and points out the necessary adjustments for the later games.

[dmncnlou]

Spurs win game 1. No way the Heat are ready for the Spurs after a 7 game series. Pop was planning all year for the Grizzlies and Heat.

[broadway6]

Kiss your money goodbye but wait until game 2

[Ron29301]

Say ain't so.....

Which team will win the NBA Finals?

<form action="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls/_/category/368" method="post" style="border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; min-height: 256px;">

• 
  49%
  <label for="answer-9243449" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Heat</label>
• 
  51%
  <label for="answer-9243451" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Spurs</label>

(Total votes: 183,320) ESPN POLL</form>

[LowRollin]

I think spurs take 1 of the 2, but your value is gone if they steal game 1.

[adila1401]

If you want to take Spurs series wait till after Game 1 at the least, probably 2 if you want the highest

[adila1401]

Say ain't so.....

Which team will win the NBA Finals?

<form action="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls/_/category/368" method="post" style="border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; min-height: 256px;">

• 
  49%
  <label for="answer-9243449" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Heat</label>
• 
  51%
  <label for="answer-9243451" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Spurs</label>

(Total votes: 183,320) ESPN POLL</form>

I wouldn't go by that my man, people's vote changes game to game..I guarantee you it will be like 65-35 if Miami win game 1

[BlacK_HazE]

Say ain't so.....

Which team will win the NBA Finals?

<form action="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls/_/category/368" method="post" style="border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; min-height: 256px;">

• 
  49%
  <label for="answer-9243449" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Heat</label>
• 
  51%
  <label for="answer-9243451" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 14px; width: 323.00347900390625px; clear: both; display: block;">Spurs</label>

(Total votes: 183,320) ESPN POLL</form>

Ya because the joeschmoe public has done really good betting/picking winners thus far.. (sarcasm)

[Rellik]

I took the Spurs now @ 210 for the Series. $2000 to Win $4200. Spurs are ready for another championship this year.

[ramones951]

It depends...

if they win game one their series price goes down and vice versa

[thewhiteguy]

It depends...

if they win game one their series price goes down and vice versa

[vasilli07]

I'm thinking of game-series double. Miami to win game 1 but lose series at @6.50 sounds like a good price. Or will Spurs to win the title after game 1(if they lose) get a better price than this?

[Pick'nParlays]

i wonder if the line moves much before tip off...

[oldscho0led]

bet now. this Spurs team is not affected by that 'long lay-off blah blah blah', instead it favors them because they are a veteran team. Pop, Duncan, and Parker will just be too much fro this Heat team.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Wait for lakerboy and bet opposite.

[STAY STRONG]

in it to win it

[Bbr]

Take it now, and if spurs lose game one, load down again. Simple

[Sportsbetting123]

Take it now, and if spurs lose game one, load down again. Simple

Best advice yet..my thoughts exactly. Best of luck

[Ron29301]

I wouldn't go by that my man, people's vote changes game to game..I guarantee you it will be like 65-35 if Miami win game 1

My money is already in dude. There's nothing more to debate about. I know who I want to win. I knew it before the 7th gm of MIA vs IND. GL.....

[Pete0]

Take it now, and if spurs lose game one, load down again. Simple

right about now, i'm thinking why i didnt heed this advice

had small position on spurs win 4-2 at +650 and heat ml so far