I've been gambling for about a year now and won't even pretend to be anything but a losing gambler. I'm a total action junkie and typically have bets in play from the time I wake up to the time I go to bed. I do some research here and there but nothing extensive. I haven't necessarily been god-awful from a W-L standpoint, but like many, my bankroll management has been my undoing. I've tracked my plays for the last month and finished up with an overall W-L record of 190-201. Interestingly enough, my record in +100 or higher plays was 53-58 while going an abysmal 137-143 when laying juice.
Without going back and re-calculating nearly 400 bets at various odds, I think it's safe to say I would probably be down 10 units at worst (currently down 21) if I was flat betting with a risk of 1 unit per bet. A 48.7% overall winning percentage sucks, but hitting 47.7% of my +even plays should be keeping me closer to the break even point. I don't double down and chase losses, I don't play exotic parlays and I'm certainly not betting money that I can't afford to lose.
My problem is and always has been laying too much freaking juice. In this thread I'll post all my plays from various sports and publicly hold myself accountable for every bet. I am risking 1 unit on every play whether it's a dog or favorite. If i like more than 1 play in the same game, I will make two half unit plays and eliminate the possibility of a two unit loss in one game. Some picks will be based on my own research, some going with my gut and some will be 100% blind tails of 'cappers that are way better at this than me. Tail me (not recommended), fade me (it might put your kids through college) or whatever.
June 2nd Picks
MLB
Indians -1 (+134) vs Rays - Hellickson's been awful lately. Wind blowing out in cleveland.
Indians/Rays Over 9 (-105)
Reds/Pirates Over 7.5 (-105) - Red's usually score a lot of runs for Latos.
Marlins (+175) vs Mets- Public Fade #1
Nationals (+180) - Public Fade #2 - hoping one of these two longshots hit ruining parlays around the country.
Diamondbacks (-126) vs Cubs - D'backs undefeated in Corbin's starts.
Tigers (-117) vs Orioles - Porcello with 6 quality starts in his last 7 appearances.
Soccer
Germany (-114) vs USA - I'd love to see the US draw or better here but that would be a damn miracle after watching the other night.
Without going back and re-calculating nearly 400 bets at various odds, I think it's safe to say I would probably be down 10 units at worst (currently down 21) if I was flat betting with a risk of 1 unit per bet. A 48.7% overall winning percentage sucks, but hitting 47.7% of my +even plays should be keeping me closer to the break even point. I don't double down and chase losses, I don't play exotic parlays and I'm certainly not betting money that I can't afford to lose.
My problem is and always has been laying too much freaking juice. In this thread I'll post all my plays from various sports and publicly hold myself accountable for every bet. I am risking 1 unit on every play whether it's a dog or favorite. If i like more than 1 play in the same game, I will make two half unit plays and eliminate the possibility of a two unit loss in one game. Some picks will be based on my own research, some going with my gut and some will be 100% blind tails of 'cappers that are way better at this than me. Tail me (not recommended), fade me (it might put your kids through college) or whatever.
June 2nd Picks
MLB
Indians -1 (+134) vs Rays - Hellickson's been awful lately. Wind blowing out in cleveland.
Indians/Rays Over 9 (-105)
Reds/Pirates Over 7.5 (-105) - Red's usually score a lot of runs for Latos.
Marlins (+175) vs Mets- Public Fade #1
Nationals (+180) - Public Fade #2 - hoping one of these two longshots hit ruining parlays around the country.
Diamondbacks (-126) vs Cubs - D'backs undefeated in Corbin's starts.
Tigers (-117) vs Orioles - Porcello with 6 quality starts in his last 7 appearances.
Soccer
Germany (-114) vs USA - I'd love to see the US draw or better here but that would be a damn miracle after watching the other night.
. Talked myself into some stupid bets tonight. Gotta be more disciplined going forward.