Juice is CRITICAL in the 128 man tourney!

[fearless]

How much is a little juice worth in the 128 man tourney? Check this out:

Boner_18 6-2 +3.99
sharktank1 6-2 +3.81

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapping-contests/131974-128-man-round-1-sharktank1-vs-boner_18-a.html#post1381488

At first glance this looks like a toss up. But, a little advantage in juice makes Boner_18 about a 10-1 favorite. Why?

If this contest was tied in units, it would be a 50/50 toss up. But, a slight .18 difference in units means that sharktank1 has to hit both of his last picks and Boner_18 has to miss both of his last two picks for sharktank1 to win.

That's the equivalent of sharktank1 hitting a 4 team parlay which has 10-1 odds. It's astounding. Juice is CRITICAL in the 128 man tourney!

Note: This would be true if they both had 2 picks left but they have 2-4. Please see the next post.

[fearless]

It's 12 picks max, not 10.

What I wrote in the original post is true if they had two picks left.

With 4 max left, Boner_18 isn't such a big favorite but he's still a large favorite. I'm thinking around 3-1? I'm too tired to figure this out right now. Anyone want to take a stab at it?

[Data]

It's 12 picks max, not 10.

What I wrote in the original post is true if they had two picks left.

Pushes aside, this is only true if they cannot make bets at plus money (more than 2, decimal odds).

[fearless]

Pushes aside, this is only true if they cannot make bets at plus money (more than 2, decimal odds).

The best odds on the board is one choice at +110. There's no other lines at plus odds today, just that one so my math in the original post is right.