Dollars2Donuts Max Play Thread

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok....this thread is going to be a PLAYS ONLY THREAD. I will not be responding to ANY questions, comments or anything and will ONLY be posting my MAX Plays here. These plays have all been documented in my other thread over the last 4 months.

These used to be called POD, or Play of the Day, but because we just had 67 plays over 106 days, and some days there were 2 or 3 plays I have renamed this. Tail if you like, fade if you like, but if you want the max play just subscribe to the thread and you will not miss it.

At this time our record is:

45 - 22

+ $6452.93

Every play will be posted AT LEAST 3 hours prior to game time so you should have loads of time to get them in.

Again, please do not respond here, if you want to say something PM me or use my other thread....this is ONLY for those that just want my max plays so please do NOT clutter the thread with junk.

Cheers and GL,

D2D

[Smoke]

First

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok, our first MAX play in the new thread....a bit of a public play, but Miami played like crap last game and covered the 7.5 easily. A lot of people expect this to go the distance, but frankly I think the entire Heat roster shows up for the first time this series. These guys do NOT want a game 7, and frankly they haven't shot the ball ANYWHERE near their potential.

I regret not making a BIG bet at -290 on the series after Game 4....yes, public bet, loads of juice, but Miami doesn't lose this series and I think they win this game 75% +++ of the time.....that tells me + EV so I need to make this wager.

182009631-1

5/31/13 11:45pm

$411.00

$300.00

Pending

6/1/13 8:30pm Reduced Basketball 523 Miami Heat -137* <small>vs</small> Indiana Pacers

[boeing power]

Good luck,

you're not concerned about the zig-zag theory of this series?

[Aussiefalconfan]

#pod. #heat.

#moneyinthebag

[BIGDAY]

[Dollars2Donuts]

Good luck,

you're not concerned about the zig-zag theory of this series?

No I am not, patterns are made to be broken. Miami has not (despite what anyone says) played well in any game this series and they are up 3-2. They will not go to a Game 7.....or better said, they will win this game 65% +++ of the time, making a play at -137 an easy + EV situation.

[Aussiefalconfan]

This thread will be bumped like cocaine on Keith Richards finger if the heat get an early lead

[Smoke]

No I am not, patterns are made to be broken. Miami has not (despite what anyone says) played well in any game this series and they are up 3-2. They will not go to a Game 7.....or better said, they will win this game 65% +++ of the time, making a play at -137 an easy + EV situation.

-137 is not +EV donut

[O]

Let's Get it D2D...... BOL today.

[hopper]

I tought this thread is only for PICKS not for discussions, so it would be more comfortable to see them.
I would like if u commented on D2D other thread...

[Killer_Demo]

Shouldnt be using your foodstamps to gamble with D2D

[El Sol]

-137 is not +EV donut

If D2D has given the Heat a 65% chance of winning, than -137 is definitely +EV according to his Data interpretation. The correct Line would be -190 or so (including juice) if the Heat truly had a 65% chance of winning. So I am assuming you disagree with the 65% chance of winning and not the idea that -137 is +EV according to D2D's prediction.

So, what Percentage do you give the Heat to win outright, and where would you set the moneyline?