That will be my record if Florida covers the 2.5. Based on the games and the results, do you think that this would win a 40 gambler Greek bowl pool? I don't feel like going through each and every other persons picks, but a random sample of 7 showed me ahead of the pack. There is no leaderboard so I have no idea whether anyone else has beat me. What would you consider a reasonable winning number of picks out of the 34 bowl games?
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Was Florida ever 2.5???Comment -
It'll be up there, but I bet someone manages a better record. Still good work though hope you bet them separately as wellComment -
5Dimes has about 60 participants and the leader will finish with 23 if Florida wins. I will come in second in that one. That is why I am wondering if 23 will do it in a smaller pool.Comment -
I have similar record in one I am doing and am finding people in it with 3, 4 and 5 losses.Comment -
No way. No how. You must be in with professional gamblers and not recreational ones. The sample size I took had between 15 and 20 correct. No where close to 26-30 correct picks. You have some professional touts that won't do that well and they are getting paid to pick winners.Originally posted by bfourComment -
It's a local one with a bunch of nongamblers, people's co-workers and moms and shit its really frustrating.Comment -
Yes, prettiest uniform pickers, and best cities pickers are the biggest pool breakers.Originally posted by bfourComment -
anybody else have any idea.Comment -
I'll be 22 - 12 if Florida covers. I'm sure someone pulled off a 24 - 10... doubt 23 - 11 will be enough. Good luck though!Comment -
I hope this will win it.Comment -
I won. 23-11 was enough. Wow. When you don't have a leaderboard you have no idea where you stand. What a day, week, and month!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
That's ****in awesome sea, fat payout huh?Comment -
I will call it a little extra.Originally posted by bfour
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congrats on the win
btw does anyone have an actual answer to this problem? What is the probability that in a 40-person pool, with 34 picks, that someone will do better than 23-11?
I am not that confident in my math skills these days. I have it as ~38.6% if the entrants are all coin flippers, ~48.2% if they are 51% cappers, ~58.4% if they are 52% cappers... is this right? Also, what is the expected number of winners picked by a winning player (say, assuming everyone is a coin flipper)?Comment -
2/3's picking will have you atop or close on most leaderboards. I say you will win 80+% of the time. No one can do 60+% over time. so a one time .67 should make you do well.Originally posted by Sinister CatComment -
I did the calculations using binomdist function in Excel. i.e.:
chance of a given coin-flipper getting better than 23/34 = 1 - binomdist(23,34,0.5,1) =~ 0.012153
chance of one or more of the 40 of these coin-flippers getting better than 23/34: 1 - binomdist(0,40,0.012153,0) = 0.386827
Any math geek tell me if this is the right way to do it?
Is there a mathematical solution the the problem of what the expected number correct of the winner is, or do you have to do a simulation?Comment -
Congrats seaborne!Comment
