Mebe its just me, but does anyone else feel its hard to make picks lately (nba)

[thundercats]

So when the season started, i had no trouble. I could see the matchups and just be able to tell who would win. Im not saying i'm cocky or psychic but some of the matchups just had a obvious winner.

Now lately (within the past 2 weeks), it feels more difficult. Teams that should of won, don't. Teams that should easily cover the spread, don't. The over should of gone, but it didn't. etc... etc.. etc..

This past week i've been just playing the ML. because i don't feel confident at all on the spreads or the o/u. And yet, i'm still loosing.

I've been on such a bad loosing streak, that i forced myself to take a break. Since friday i've tried not to listen/watch any games, not to look at any scoreboards, and not make picks......and i feel great, relaxed, and ready to start over.

Tommarow i'll start again, and i have a feeling theirs gonna be some upsets......some games i just can't even choose. Like the celtics/rockets.....with the way they've both been playing, who knows who's gonna come out on top.

Anyways, i'm just wondering, does anyone else feel the same?

[InTheHole]

I think I hit 40% in December after coming out firing in the NBA. Be Careful....the lines are even sharper. Good Luck Daniel Son.

[Shortstop]

I agree, the NBA has been brutal. I haven't bet on an NBA game ever since Kevin Durant hit a "meaningless" last second 3 to crush my Cavs bet a couple of Sundays back.

[rm18]

this is always the case for me in the NBA

[gm2022]

Take your time, take days off if there is nothing there and dont force it!
It will only get tougher down the road!

[LT Profits]

NBA has always been my toughest sport, but at least I usually turned a slight profit.

This year has been brutal though, down almost 15 units here in forum. It will turn around though, it always does. Still, may be a challenge to finish in the black this year.

[McRich]

I just looked up my NBA stats since December 1st and I have had a really good record. I am 32-21-1 ATS. 33 of the 54 picks were underdogs.

[curious]

I think the NBA is easy to cap right now. Forget the season record.

Forget the long term trends, they are meaningless right now - "Orlando is 46-3 when playing on the road in the rain on a Friday night and the players are high on crack for the last 3 seasons".

There is a phenomena in lines setting where long term memory and public perception will often lead, while the short term play of a team does not match the long term memory. We are seeing this now. Teams are getting big numbers as favs when their recent play does not warrant that. But the public has not changed their perception of the fav so they continue to back them.

Several teams have been totally transformed lately. Clippers, Minnesota, Washington, OKC, to name a few. ATS, all of these teams are on fire lately. But they still get big points on the spread.

There are GREAT opportunities right now due to the mismatch between team season record and team results ATS the last several to dozen games.

So, forget the team records. Forget the long term trends. Focus on the short term, "who's hot and who's cold". When you see a hot team playing a cold team SLAP THAT BOOTY.

Don't go back too far to calculate this hot/cold. I usually use from 3 to 15 games IF the previous trend was the opposite of the latest trend.

Let's say that Team A is 11-4 ATS last 15, I will use the last 15 IF the previous trend for that team was cold. But, you have to be careful in going back that far, the team might be 0-4 ATS last 4 and 11-0 ATS previous 11. So, I always look at the current trend if I go back more than 5 games.

Another thing you have to look at is the spread the team is getting tonight. The Kings are tearing them up ATS, but I passed on them the other night because they were only getting 4 points, they didn't cover. Next night they got 8 points and did cover.

It is a GREAT time in the NBA because the linesmakers are confused.

Stay away from two hot teams playing each other, too hard to predict. Also stay away from two cold teams playing each other, unless one is getting an outrageous number of points.

[fiveteamer]

LOL, linesmakers are confused.

Didn't you want to shoot yourself a few days ago because you couldn't pick winners wheelchair boy???

[Nicky Santoro]

since when has it been so easy to pick winners in nba or any other sport? no matter who you are or how sharp you think are and how good you think you know nba or how much you know, unless you are beating the lines consistently, then you will hit very very close to 50% every year, which in gambling terms means, you will lose a lot of money.

[smitch124]

since when has it been so easy to pick winners in nba or any other sport? No matter who you are or how sharp you think are and how good you think you know nba or how much you know, unless you are beating the lines consistently, then you will hit very very close to 50% every year, which in gambling terms means, you will lose a lot of money.

[ATTACH]4821[/ATTACH]

[curious]

since when has it been so easy to pick winners in nba or any other sport? no matter who you are or how sharp you think are and how good you think you know nba or how much you know, unless you are beating the lines consistently, then you will hit very very close to 50% every year, which in gambling terms means, you will lose a lot of money.

I have been doing this for two years and in MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA I am > 60%.

I have no idea what it means to "beat the lines consistently".

If you don't pick teams that win it doesn't matter what line you got.

[jjgold]

NBA is crazy lately and not going to form

[therber2]

Betting against BOS and CLEV on the Money line tonight. It's a gamble, but I feel that it is entirely possible for "good" teams to fall apart, and "bad" team to get out of a rut. So tonight I'm putting a little money on the stuff that makes great sports movies.

If I lose I don't care I can afford it. The return is worth the small loss!
BOS and/or CLEV lose tonight. Make some money!

[Nicky Santoro]

I have been doing this for two years and in MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA I am > 60%.

lol

[RogueScholar]

Pretty good material, curious. That was an enjoyable read, thanks for the insight into the "method behind your madness".

[The General]

Nothing in the NBA makes sense in wagering most of the time so you just have to roll with the flow and use good money management. There was more than One referee who determined games ATS in the NBA. TD just got caught. Bank on it.

Best of luck tonight

[ZXCVBNM]

If you don't pick teams that win it doesn't matter what line you got.

Basically.

[bigboydan]

I have been doing this for two years and in MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA I am > 60%.

That's better than the so called expert Mr.Nicky, and that's why I picked you as my selection in this thread.

[JBC77]

Whats happened is that a few of the top tier teams have been playing no better than smoldering poo for the last two weeks and the bottom feeders got fire a bit. I feel you though, hit a few roads bumps lately myself. Reality though, thats gambling, thats betting on sports. Hot one minute, cold the next, happens to all of us.

[msubulldog]

I have been getting pounded sice 1st of new year; won small last night for 1st winning night and hope to put streak together.

long season will have winning and losing streaks.

[curious]

lol

Do you have a problem crackhead? All my MLB picks were posted before game time, as were most of my NBA and NCAAB picks.

What is wrong with this mother ****er?

[curious]

Pretty good material, curious. That was an enjoyable read, thanks for the insight into the "method behind your madness".

And you know as soon as we start playing in a big way this approach will fall completely a part.