Oklahoma backers, when you gettin' down?

[Dana4U]

The "Defenses Win Games" Argument

If this was truly the case - then Ball State should have man handled Tulsa last night. It was the number 8 defense versus the number 84 defense. But look who won ... the team with the better offense! The Texas and OSU game is another example. All the talk about how OSU and their great defense would prove too much for Texas offense ... blah, blah, blah. Who ended up winning the game? (I know they didn't cover, but Texas got the "W"). Teams with explosive offenses are hard to stop, even for the greatest defenses!

I love hearing everybody say how great the Florida defense is - it's only benefiting the OK backers as we sit back and watch the spread move in our favor. Hell - it could be a touchdown difference by game time. So keep whooping up how great the Gator defense is and let the OK supporters benefit even more!

Tebow won't win the game, the difference between the two DEFENSES will win this game.

[LT Profits]

The MAC sucks so Ball State's defensive numbers meant nothing.

Florida's defese is legitmate and the Big 12 has been exposed this bowl season. Also, in what many thought was a down year, the SEC has once again proven to be the best conference this season.

[EBone]

I have a lot of respect for LT's analysis and always will.

However, I gotta go with Oklahoma here. The moneyline is now @ +180 for a team that averaged 54 points per game offensively. I just can't say "NO" to that. I don't know if I'll win or not but that line is just about as good as it gets for a team that averages over 50 points. I'm gonna bet the +5 as well. It should be a great game to watch. I'll be throwin' down some hooch for this one. It's gonna be fun. If I lose, I lose. One guarantee I'll make is: this wont be the last time I lose a bet.

As always, I wish everyone the best of luck.



E

[masr]

Like Florida and my number got it at -3, hooked it down to -2
now at 5 at my book.
GO GATORS!!

[BROOKLYN BOY]

Florida -4 -105 at Greek

I hate chalk, bit -185 ML may be as safe a bet as it gets.

laying that kind of chalk against a team as explosive as Oklahoma is not a safe bet by any means....

[Mac4Lyfe]

Florida at -5 is a steal. How many times do peeps have to lose $ on OU in bowl games to figure it out??? UF rolls by 21 on fast scores on O and smothering defense that will cause Bradford to turn the ball over.

UM is going to throw out the kitchen sink and Stoops head will be spinning before he knew what hit him.

[flyingillini]

+175 at the book I play at right now.

[masr]

Got the line early...BIG!! but dont think it will matter. This guy bringing me some money tommorrow

[Mac4Lyfe]

Percy is going to show tomorrow why he should be a top 10 pick in the draft.

[Godzilla]

+178 ML Oklahoma 5dimes right now. Game can go either way. I will take the Sooners!

[Poker_Beast]

Sooners baby!!!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Bet with your head not your heart... OU has poor defense.

[eidolon]

I was going to take OU at +180, but, even though Oklahoma fans are crazy for football and there will be a lot at the game, since the game is at Miami, Florida is pretty much playing at home.

[diogee]

[LT Profits]

laying that kind of chalk against a team as explosive as Oklahoma is not a safe bet by any means....

Florida ML now -215 at Pinnacle, so anyone that got down at -185 made a GREAT play, win or lose.

[pinnacle212]

Ok guys, OU can put up a lot of points but these are the reasons I think they will lose.

1. They play mostly a sign coverage. If you mix a zone coverage with speed. A 5 yard play can turn into a 50 yard play on a run or pass. There zone is set up to combat the pass. Why. Everyone in their conference throws the ball. Texas, TT, Kansas etc all throw the ball a lot. Most of the teams in the Big 12 play a zone scheme.

With those 60 pointers OU throws up, there offense and defense do not play full games. Here are the breakdown by Quarters.
OK Offense OK Defense Florida O Florida D
1st Q 17.92 2.50 13.33 0.83
2nd Q 16.92 9.42 12.00 2.58
3rd Q 12.50 6.42 11.00 4.50
4th Q 6.0 6.50 10.0 4.33

The numbers I would like you to look at is the fourth quarter numbers for OK. I lot of people will say they pull their offense and defense in the fourth quarter and thats my point. I just worry they will have a problem playing the whole game. When your Offense and Defense are not used to playing the whole game it creates a conditioning problem.

In the Texas game you heard every OK fan saying. "Man we had them until the end. Texas was balanced team that played solid D. They did not panic win they were down. They mixed the pass and run and when OU got tired they beat them.

3rd A lot them teams offenses that are pass based are having a hard time getting started. I.E. Texas, TT, etc. It is easier to be consistant in the running game than the pass.
INGAME TIMING is needed. This gives OU the advantage.

OU has a great chance to jump out on Florida and take it off it. They have motivation based on the comments made about there D. The have a better Offense than Florida. This will be a game of matchups and OK is +1 Offense and Fl +1.
I think they will get worn down by the running game.

Any comments PLEASE

[picantel]

oklahoma up to +180 on intertops. at what point do you bite on it?

[fiveteamer]

Pretty sure we be able to at least get +200, most likely more...

[fiveteamer]

Oh yeah, way more than +200, 5dimes has them at +195 as of 10AM.

[Lout84]

Oklahoma is +7.5 now??? This is easy money. A lot of your Florida backers might want to hedge and hope Florida wins by 7. I am all over Oklahoma, and making a play for the ML as well. You should never spot Oklahoma 7 freaking points, that is just beyond crazy.

[spongerat]

wow where'd you find them at 7.5?

[EBone]

Oklahoma is now +200 @ 5 Dimes. Unbelievable. I wish I had waited now. Oklahoma may not win the game but that price is awfully tempting.



E

[SBR Lou]

Good luck Oklahoma backers! Some +185's floating around...

[hoopster42]

sooners backers who waited should jump in now because the line reached 6 a few hrs ago and now is dropping down to plus 5 and a half everywhere, no 6's left, the moneyline is obviously dropping as well as crazyLou pointed out

i still believe that ANY wager on oklahoma, spread or moneyline, is not a smart one but if you insist on playing the sooners i suggest you play them right now before the line continues to drop

[porkchop817]

oklahoma +14.5 at pinny

[strictlywinners]

Got down good lord, I'm gonna be dropping Hammers on OU. Don't play around 2 hours until I get down!

[SBR Lou]

The sharps beginning to drive the public line down.

[hoopster42]

The sharps beginning to drive the public line down.

i disagree. i think this sharps trying to middle their earlier wagers on florida -1.5 and above.

the sharp money on the spread and moneyline is on florida bud, i promise you this

[strictlywinners]

Yea I'm in on Oklahoma now its official I got it at 6 and +180, its a shame because it was at +195 for a minute.

[SBR Lou]

the sharp money on the spread and moneyline is on florida bud, i promise you this

Absolutely wrong. I have the sneaking suspicion that it'd be a monster day for bookies if Oklahoma won this game.

[fiveteamer]

I guess +198 was as good as it was going to get...

[SBR Lou]

I guess +198 was as good as it was going to get...

Yeah, the sharps are all over this one now.

[hoopster42]

Absolutely wrong. I have the sneaking suspicion that it'd be a monster day for bookies if Oklahoma won this game.

crazyLou, i believe sharp money moved the opener from -1.5 to -3 the nite the line came out (sun, dec 7th), i also believe that sharp money moved it from -3 to -6 between monday nite when texas looked horrible and this morning, then when it was -6 many of the same sharps who took florida at the opener have come back and taken oklahoma +6, +5.5, like that, just to try and middle, but their larger positions are still on florida

square money on oklahoma spread and moneyline, a sharp would never bet on a such a porous defense to win the national title,

[fiveteamer]

So basically, according to hoopster, every bet on Florida is a sharp bet. Even though joe public is on Florida like white on rice.

[SBR Lou]

crazyLou, i believe sharp money moved the opener from -1.5 to -3 the nite the line came out (sun, dec 7th), i also believe that sharp money moved it from -3 to -6 between monday nite when texas looked horrible and this morning, then when it was -6 many of the same sharps who took florida at the opener have come back and taken oklahoma +6, +5.5, like that, just to try and middle, but their larger positions are still on florida

square money on oklahoma spread and moneyline, a sharp would never bet on a such a porous defense to win the national title,

Well, I'm going to do a victory dance once my position is proven to be correct. I hope you understand, and don't fade the sharps.