Need your thoughts on this system

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  • TheGambler
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-16-06
    • 972

    #1
    Need your thoughts on this system
    Before starting with the details, I want to let you know that I have learned a lot from some great cappers on this website and i appreciate what most have to offer on this site. For me, i don't have to do a lot of capping b/c i have been playing with a "dumb" local for 3 years now. He only takes FB and BB so my sample size only consists of these sports. I have kept a spreadsheet over the years with every play. The reason i say my local is dumb is b/c he goes off of the newspaper for all of his lines. Yes, you probably think i am now rich and he has cut me off. well, his limit is $25 so i can't make that much. my rules are that i only play games in which the spread has moved at least a point or two whether it is on the side or over. obviously i get the best line every time since he uses the daily newspaper which ususally has lines from the previous night. in my spreadsheet, i keep track of my line and the current offshore line. i did this to see how many "middles" i would have hit over the season if i played the opposite side online. with 3 years under my belt, i have noticed a serious pattern that seems very profitable if i was betting more $ offshore. my sample size with my local is right at 1000 games over the last 3 years. of the 1000 plays, i won 63% with my local. i then went back to see how many middles would have won b/c i need to subtract these out of the total b/c i wouldn't have won with the offshore line. of these 1000 plays, i would have hit 22 middles. to adjust my win %, i subtract these 22 plays from the 630 that i won so that brings my winning % against the offshore line to 60.8%. To be honest, i don't have the balls to start betting $100/game to really test this theory b/c i don't have the money to do this. however, 1000 plays seems like a good sample size and since you only have to hit 53% to be profitable, i have a lot of winning % to give up. i appreciate any feedback from all of you experts. thanks
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