Spurs up 1-0. Parlay them the next 3 as well. This has sweep written all over it.

[Gus Fring]

Could guarantee a nice profit now with Memphis ml live gm4

[Git Lo]

Mad props if this hits, you need to hedge this shit

[BennyBigNuts]

I'm a............



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[BennyBigNuts]

Grizz in 6 or Spurs in 7. This clown just wants attention and there's no way he thinks it will really be a sweep

Fukkin tool of the month post right here. Nominate this bitch 100 times. Post #6

[amrit]

Haha I gotta give you props Benny...amazing call. I got fukked on Memphis tonight, but thought I'd give you respects for calling this so early.

[fitguy67]

Seto,

I didn't want to bet the game...but take you up on your offer to book someone stupid enough to bet Spurs sweeping...

i said we could hop on with a quarter to go in game 3, just as if we were able to connect on the bet b4 gametym...not really a bad deal for you cuz my team, playing in your building would have to win this game...THEN win again on your court...

such an impossibility to contemplate that you boasted a willingness to take the points off anyone (specifically Benny...but i decided to step in and be his proxy) stupid enough to entertain such wild-eyed dreams...

be careful next tym u catch urself saying "there's NO WAY...such and such can happen"...and think of Newton's spinning backfist of -1100 KingMO...

____________

anyhow, offer still stands...if ur still so damn sure there's NO WAY spurs COULD EVER sweep the Grizz...

you don't have to give me a great...or even a good price...just book it at whater 5d has the "Spurs in 4 games" prop at

and u decide what amount (from 1 to 1000 points is fine with me)...

it's not the points, dude...or sports knowledge/opinion...

it's the lesson in probability and betting odds...

lotsa stupid things done cuz people think VERY LOW perceived likelihood of something = NO chance
____
u ready to step up...or gonna keep back-pedalling?

[fitguy67]

Could guarantee a nice profit now with Memphis ml live gm4

sheesh...another one who thinks it's all about sports knowledge of what WILL happen...and not a careful comparison of objective book prices (with an implied probability) with one's subjective perceived probability

books make a great living auto-fading (taking the other side, or "booking") know-it-alls' CLEVER and EASY plays...

it's the thoughtful number-weenies...the ones who KNOW IT ISN'T EASY to find value...that they don't like

u keep that attitude about how clever u are and how easy it is to score $..and bookmakers will always be happy and always "treat you well"

[BennyBigNuts]

Haha I gotta give you props Benny...amazing call. I got fukked on Memphis tonight, but thought I'd give you respects for calling this so early.

Not done yet but the Grizz are easily the type of team that will quit in game 4. Going to be a bad line I think. I'm gonna say Grizz are 2 1/2 to -3 in game 4.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Not done yet but the Grizz are easily the type of team that will quit in game 4. Going to be a bad line I think. I'm gonna say Grizz are 2 1/2 to -3 in game 4.

My apologies BBN. I disagreed at first, but now I owe you an aplogy.

Of course after watching games 1 and 2 I was all over the points in this game (Spurs)....they also hit SU for me as well....frankly it was just value that even I (who has been on Memphis all along) could not ignore.

Good job and GL in the 4th game.

[SportsTerminator]

Surprisingly the Spurs will wrap this series up game 5. The Grizzlies won't get swept... but for some strange rarely unlikely reason they do the coach is done! He's out of there!

[BennyBigNuts]

Surprisingly the Spurs will wrap this series up game 5. The Grizzlies won't get swept... but for some strange rarely unlikely reason they do the coach is done! He's out of there!

4 games bro, it's a wrap

[Sdotbold]

Nice call Benny , i was all over spurs live when they got down alot early.

[Seto]

Seto,

I didn't want to bet the game...but take you up on your offer to book someone stupid enough to bet Spurs sweeping...

i said we could hop on with a quarter to go in game 3, just as if we were able to connect on the bet b4 gametym...not really a bad deal for you cuz my team, playing in your building would have to win this game...THEN win again on your court...

such an impossibility to contemplate that you boasted a willingness to take the points off anyone (specifically Benny...but i decided to step in and be his proxy) stupid enough to entertain such wild-eyed dreams...

be careful next tym u catch urself saying "there's NO WAY...such and such can happen"...and think of Newton's spinning backfist of -1100 KingMO...

____________

anyhow, offer still stands...if ur still so damn sure there's NO WAY spurs COULD EVER sweep the Grizz...

you don't have to give me a great...or even a good price...just book it at whater 5d has the "Spurs in 4 games" prop at

and u decide what amount (from 1 to 1000 points is fine with me)...

it's not the points, dude...or sports knowledge/opinion...

it's the lesson in probability and betting odds...

lotsa stupid things done cuz people think VERY LOW perceived likelihood of something = NO chance
____
u ready to step up...or gonna keep back-pedalling?

Dude what the fuk is wrong with you? Seriously you sound like ratzz making those weird long posts with bold and shit. Give it a rest.

I didn't accept because you were giving me a bad deal. You knew it and were hoping I would be stupid enough to accept the original price we had decided on when my team was in a bad position compared to what they were pre-game.

Are you benny's mum or something? His lawyer maybe? I thought he was wrong before game 2. I still thought he was before game 3. It's called having an opinion. Maybe you didn't like the way I expressed it but deal with it, it's the fukkin internet ffs. I think benny is old enough to defend himself on his own also. And I have him props last night for makjng a good call.

As for your offer, you're gonna have to find someone else.

[fitguy67]

Dude what the fuk is wrong with you? Seriously you sound like ratzz making those weird long posts with bold and shit. Give it a rest.

I didn't accept because you were giving me a bad deal. You knew it and were hoping I would be stupid enough to accept the original price we had decided on when my team was in a bad position compared to what they were pre-game.

Are you benny's mum or something? His lawyer maybe? I thought he was wrong before game 2. I still thought he was before game 3. It's called having an opinion. Maybe you didn't like the way I expressed it but deal with it, it's the fukkin internet ffs. I think benny is old enough to defend himself on his own also. And I have him props last night for makjng a good call.

As for your offer, you're gonna have to find someone else.

fair enough...i did get carried away with the fonts, didn't I?

point is think long and hard next time u think ur ready to put up a car against someone's bicycle cuz u think the other side "can never happen"...

being probability-literate and intelligently taking the "bicycle" side of such deals is a recipe for success...letting your sports knowledge delude u into thinking shit CAN't happen leads otherwise smart people into stupidly risking the car to get what seems like a free two-wheeler for the kid...

and g4

[pouyasophy]

again are you retarded? the spurs depth and coaching can crack any defense in the NBA, and that's pretty much all the grizzlies are (defense). sure, they can score, but not 100pts a game.

not as retarded as Knick fans who thought they could beat the pacers....i told you so

[Seto]

fair enough...i did get carried away with the fonts, didn't I?

point is think long and hard next time u think ur ready to put up a car against someone's bicycle cuz u think the other side "can never happen"...

being probability-literate and intelligently taking the "bicycle" side of such deals is a recipe for success...letting your sports knowledge delude u into thinking shit CAN't happen leads otherwise smart people into stupidly risking the car to get what seems like a free two-wheeler for the kid...

and g4

Well I was convinced they wouldn't sweep. Is that forbidden? I would have taken your action before the game at +550 I thought I was getting a good deal. Are all heavy juice plays (I was getting -550) bad plays? I rarely lay juice even when I think something is a "lock" but juicy plays can have value too. And I wasn't backing down or anything, I just wasn't interested anymore into the game, even if you had given me a fair price. Even when memphis was up huge they did not impress me at any point yesterday.

Don't have a play as of now on game 4. Gl if you do. I don't care about being "right", I care about making money, so the spurs can go ahead and sweep for all i care.

[fitguy67]

fave side of a market tends to be the over-backed, therefore the over-valued side...but not always, as u correctly noted...

a fairly good recent example of considerable value on the negative-money/fave side is the last couple of Rampage fights in MMA...he was a dog, but cuz of his "name" he still got more support than he objectively "deserved" (paying -250ish on Texeira when he should have been at least -400 was good value)...in kombat-sports and tennis, much more than team sports, it happens that the value is with the chalky side, esp. when the talent mismatch is great cuz the amount of chalk itself discourages further backing (even when there's lots of remaining "value") by simply scaring off many bettors...Jon Jones is usually a huge favorite, yet still under-backed/under-valued cuz people just stop buying him at -800 (implied 89%win-rate), even when bettors know it's a better than 89% shot he wins...

but in professional team sports, when odds get high...always suspect casual fans with the "that CAN'T happen" illusion buying a side way past where it deserves to be (becuz the prob of losing is so low, they mistakenly think it's zero...meaning it's not a bet, but an investment...)...look how impossible it was to even contemplate a Spurs sweep a few days ago...it seemed like a bet against it was a 20% investment that'd pay out in a few days...

publlic backing of a side like the Heat against the Pacers right now...is kinda' like rich Asians on a short Real-Estate-buying vacation in North America...they see "value" WAY beyond the market reality...

winfall profits always available for the guys who keep their heads on straight...and always look for good spots to put up one of their many bicycles against a nice car

[TheMoneyShot]

Benny your crystal ball is shining bro. Nice calls!

[a4u2fear]

nice work benny

[BennyBigNuts]

Benny your crystal ball is shining bro. Nice calls!

Not yet. But I like my chances. Already cleaned up on this series either way. Game 4 is just bonus money

[Seto]

fave side of a market tends to be the over-backed, therefore the over-valued side...but not always, as u correctly noted...

a fairly good recent example of considerable value on the negative-money/fave side is the last couple of Rampage fights in MMA...he was a dog, but cuz of his "name" he still got more support than he objectively "deserved" (paying -250ish on Texeira when he should have been at least -400 was good value)...in kombat-sports and tennis, much more than team sports, it happens that the value is with the chalky side, esp. when the talent mismatch is great cuz the amount of chalk itself discourages further backing (even when there's lots of remaining "value") by simply scaring off many bettors...Jon Jones is usually a huge favorite, yet still under-backed/under-valued cuz people just stop buying him at -800 (implied 89%win-rate), even when bettors know it's a better than 89% shot he wins...

but in professional team sports, when odds get high...always suspect casual fans with the "that CAN'T happen" illusion buying a side way past where it deserves to be (becuz the prob of losing is so low, they mistakenly think it's zero...meaning it's not a bet, but an investment...)...look how impossible it was to even contemplate a Spurs sweep a few days ago...it seemed like a bet against it was a 20% investment that'd pay out in a few days...

publlic backing of a side like the Heat against the Pacers right now...is kinda' like rich Asians on a short Real-Estate-buying vacation in North America...they see "value" WAY beyond the market reality...

winfall profits always available for the guys who keep their heads on straight...and always look for good spots to put up one of their many bicycles against a nice car

i am more of a dog guy too. which is when usually i think a heavily juiced play is a "lock", i still leave it alone. i really would have made that wager with you though.

don't know shit about MMA but i can relate to what you're saying yeah.

[trevor123698]

I'm a............



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anyone who listens to this f\*g music is not a beast

[Johnnythunder]

You are one sharp son of a gun Benny boy

[fitguy67]

i am more of a dog guy too. which is when usually i think a heavily juiced play is a "lock", i still leave it alone. i really would have made that wager with you though.

don't know shit about MMA but i can relate to what you're saying yeah.

no problem amigo...i just TODAY found the email where u accepted -550, [-600/+3300]...it would have made g3 and now g4 more fun i suppose, but not important now, cuz it helped us both clarify our approach to odds and value (and my approach to character fonts and sizes, lol)...

i can tell now ur head is on straighter than a lot of the guys who constantly bragg about "gift" lines they took the book for...then inevitably bitchnmoaning about the badbeat they suffered in that same game...this is an interesting hobby we have here...but it is anything but easy...take care

[BennyBigNuts]

anyone who listens to this f\*g music is not a beast

Only song I could find talkin about being a beast brah. Relax.

[BennyBigNuts]

Bad line on this game 4 cuz of the Spurs dominance. Let's wrap this up!!

[Seto]

no problem amigo...i just TODAY found the email where u accepted -550, [-600/+3300]...it would have made g3 and now g4 more fun i suppose, but not important now, cuz it helped us both clarify our approach to odds and value (and my approach to character fonts and sizes, lol)...

i can tell now ur head is on straighter than a lot of the guys who constantly bragg about "gift" lines they took the book for...then inevitably bitchnmoaning about the badbeat they suffered in that same game...this is an interesting hobby we have here...but it is anything but easy...take care

Yeah and I'd be in a pretty iffy situation. We'll see who really got away with one but safe to say you very on the "right side".

I may have come off the wrong way but I was just expressing an opinion. I'm not claiming to be some gambling know-it-all but I know my fair share about odds/value etc.

gl to you

[BennyBigNuts]

Yeah and I'd be in a pretty iffy situation. We'll see who really got away with one but safe to say you very on the "right side".

I may have come off the wrong way but I was just expressing an opinion. I'm not claiming to be some gambling know-it-all but I know my fair share about odds/value etc.

gl to you

You want value? Just bet whatever I tell you to in the playoffs lol. I'm a fukkin hog brah.

Grizz are a team of overrated stains. They will quit early if the Spurs can any kind of lead tonight.

Conley and Allen have been exploited like I said they would. One dimensional players who will never make a run in the playoffs. You switch out Conley for CP3, they could beat the Heat. Conley is garbage. Grizz are stuck with him too cuz of that joke of a contract they gave him.

[Seto]

You want value? Just bet whatever I tell you to in the playoffs lol. I'm a fukkin hog brah.

Grizz are a team of overrated stains. They will quit early if the Spurs can any kind of lead tonight.

Conley and Allen have been exploited like I said they would. One dimensional players who will never make a run in the playoffs. You switch out Conley for CP3, they could beat the Heat. Conley is garbage. Grizz are stuck with him too cuz of that joke of a contract they gave him.

I don't follow your picks religiously but from what I've seen you've been doing very well in NBA and MLB. Keep it up

Yeah and you nailed it for Hollins too. Guy is getting schooled. He was out of practice after going up against Brooks and Del Negro ha.

[Jrod124]

BB is the biggest prick on this forum, but this guy may be the best capper here. At least the hottest capper.

[Wulfman14]

BB is the biggest prick on this forum, but this guy may be the best capper here. At least the hottest capper.

Def a fukkin prick. Should have his fingers cut off with the trash he types.he is simply on a heater right now. If he hits this, well done. But he ain't a good capper. The lord just tired of seeing him on his knees swallowing and trying to earn a living as a male solicitor.

[BennyBigNuts]

Def a fukkin prick. Should have his fingers cut off with the trash he types.he is simply on a heater right now. If he hits this, well done. But he ain't a good capper. The lord just tired of seeing him on his knees swallowing and trying to earn a living as a male solicitor.

ROFL
You've been saying im on a heater for 2 months now brah. Get off my balls.

[BennyBigNuts]

BB is the biggest prick on this forum, but this guy may be the best capper here. At least the hottest capper.

LOL
Thank you sir.
I like it.

[thes0vereign]

[Wulfman14]

ROFL
You've been saying im on a heater for 2 months now brah. Get off my balls.

Yur obsession with male genitalia is disconcerting to say the least. Your random joke picks will have a bigger losing streak then the 7 in black cawk you deep throated this morning. Just wait and see.