Should the Colts have intentionally taken a safety?

[fearless]

I say yes. They would have won by one point almost assuredly, imho. Now, it's up in the air.

[diogee]

I would say no because SD would still get the ball back and a fg would win the game instead of tie it.

[VegasDave]

And then give it to the Chargers with plenty of time so the FG is for the win instead of the tie? No.

[Bread]

Fearless: SBR Poll master!

[rm18]

I say yes

[fearless]

I would say no because SD would still get the ball back and a fg would win the game instead of tie it.

Yes, but starting at their own 20 with like a minute and a half left. What they did was almost giving away the tie, imho.

[fearless]

I say yes

I'm not crazy then. Can you tell us why.

[fearless]

Fearless: SBR Poll master!

Thanks.

[rm18]

right I think they gave themselves almost no chance to win in regulation only to lose, where if they kicked deep after a safety it is about 50/50 on who would win.

[fearless]

right I think they gave themselves almost no chance to win in regulation only to lose, where if they kicked deep after a safety it is about 50/50 on who would win.

They essentially gave the tie away.

Isn't the rule in professional sports "go for the win on the win road and go for the tie at home"?

[VegasDave]

You guys are nuts.

[rm18]

They essentially gave the tie away.

Isn't the rule in professional sports "go for the win on the win road and go for the tie at home"?

I think they wanted Manning to get the ball one more time but it might not happen in OT

[fearless]

You guys are nuts.

You've got to give some reasoning for your opinion.

[fearless]

I think they wanted Manning to get the ball one more time but it might not happen in OT

EXACTLY. If you pin San Diego inside their own 20 with about 1:30 remaining, I think the odds of them getting a field goal are like 30%. Realistically, Indy wins this game by a point and moves on almost assuredly.

[mmike032]

Peyton in OT = victory

hopefully this will be an exception

[rm18]

I think it is obvious that the Chargers had a greater than 50% chance to win with a punt? You do not think the Colts can stop them 50% of the time after a safety?

[rm18]

EXACTLY. If you pin San Diego inside their own 20 with about 1:30 remaining, I think the odds of them getting a field goal are like 30%. Realistically, Indy wins this game by a point and moves on almost assuredly.

they are not going to be inside the 20 after a kick from the 20 yard line with Sproles returning. Also 4 downs and out and throwing every down makes it easier to score, so it is probably around 40-50% maybe

[VegasDave]

You've got to give some reasoning for your opinion.

Reasoning like logic?

Boot it, they get the ball back around the 40. You try to stop them, if you can 3 and out them or keep them out of the endzone, if they miss the FG they lose, if they kick the FG its a tie game and it goes to overtime.

In overtime, you either win the toss and get the ball or get a proper kickoff so the Chargers have to start (likely) at around their own 20.

Take the safety, then punt to Sproles... safety punts are routinely returned to about the 40. Now you give the Chargers a minute and change to go 30 yards for a manageable FG and the win.

How is the safety the more desirable of the two??

[VegasDave]

EXACTLY. If you pin San Diego inside their own 20 with about 1:30 remaining, I think the odds of them getting a field goal are like 30%. Realistically, Indy wins this game by a point and moves on almost assuredly.

Pin Sproles inside the 20 on a safety punt? If you thought that was going to happen, no wonder why you wanted them to take the safety!

[losturmarbles]

chargers have been really good on 3rd down

[fearless]

I think it is obvious that the Chargers had a greater than 50% chance to win with a punt? You do not think the Colts can stop them 50% of the time after a safety?

Here's my odds:

Indy takes a safety - they've got a 70% chance to win

Indy punts - Chargers have a 70% of tieing the game, a 20% of winning the game in regulation

Which one would you choose?

[rm18]

Reasoning like logic?

Boot it, they get the ball back around the 40. You try to stop them, if you can 3 and out them or keep them out of the endzone, if they miss the FG they lose, if they kick the FG its a tie game and it goes to overtime.

In overtime, you either win the toss and get the ball or get a proper kickoff so the Chargers have to start (likely) at around their own 20.

Take the safety, then punt to Sproles... safety punts are routinely returned to about the 40. Now you give the Chargers a minute and change to go 30 yards for a manageable FG and the win.

How is the safety the more desirable of the two??

the 40 is not a realistic average, they are not kicking off a tee Hunter Smith can kick the ball to the 5 on the fly

[VegasDave]

Here's my odds:

Indy takes a safety - they've got a 70% chance to win

Indy punts - Chargers have a 70% of tieing the game, a 20% of winning the game in regulation

Which one would you choose?

You just made those odds up, they aren't factually based on anything.

[rm18]

70% is way too high though I think they should of took the safety.

[purecarnagge]

Saftey is more desireable as they chargers will have to move the ball 35 yards to be in extreme long fg range vs 35 yards for a TD.

[fearless]

You just made those odds up, they aren't factually based on anything.

I did do some trading on tradesports.

[rm18]

I did do some trading on tradesports.

[rm18]

http://www.tradesports.com/

[fearless]

The Monday morning quarterbacks will flood this thread after SD wins.

[VegasDave]

They'll flood the entire board, I think I'm done for the evening. Have a good night everyone.

[danrman]

well i wish they would have cause i had hedged my sd bet at half +3...

[purecarnagge]

I just think with how in ept the passing game for SD was... I mean there whole passing attack was gates over the middle... by doing that your forcing them to win without running the ball... forcing there WR to make plays... not saying SD couldn't win but this all comes down to the whole do you foul in basketball?

[The Seer]

Did this game retire Dungy?

I think he's done for a year or so......thoughts...

Damn was trying to start a new thread

[Tsoprano]

Fearless: SBR Poll master!

[yisman]

I was watching with a friend and told him they should've snapped it out of the back of the endzone like the Patriots* did against Denver a few years ago.

The punt was at a high risk of being blocked.

Chances are they win 17-16 in that case.