5/16 Call me Brock for a day. Biggest chalk play I've ever posted. REDS -155

[BennyBigNuts]

My daily max for an MLB play is around -130.

I don't understand why the big drop in price on this game, but it's become pretty valuable in my opinion.
Was as high as -190 last night.
I don't see how this line isn't over -200.
I gotta think there going to be a lot of late money on the Reds here with sharps hammering the value.

Latos is a beast and owned the Marlins a few weeks ago.
Reds 5-1 vs. them this year.
Ummmmm also, it's the Marlins!!!!!!!!!
Why are they betting these pigs???

Fernandez is by far the only thing to watch on that team but he already got worked against the Reds this year.
He's had good starts against shit offenses (Mets and phils twice each).
But Marlins are limiting him to 80-85 pitches this year and the bullpen is hilarious. So you will see them early and for about 4 innings most likely.

Does anyone else think this line is way off?

I hate laying this price because if you lose you gotta win the next 2 plays to come out ahead.
But Call me Landers today, I'm falling for it.


REDS -155 LATOS

[Dollars2Donuts]

When I looked this morning it was at -190....I am shocked....thanks for the heads up on that sick line movement.

179917759-1

5/16/13 5:04pm

$155.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Cincinnati Reds -155* <small>vs</small> Miami Marlins (M Latos - R must Start J Fernandez - R must Start)

PS, who the F is on the Marlins???

[tatddy]

Nothing wrong with chalk if the value is there. GL.

[BennyBigNuts]

When I looked this morning it was at -190....I am shocked....thanks for the heads up on that sick line movement.

179917759-1

5/16/13 5:04pm

$155.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Cincinnati Reds -155* <small>vs</small> Miami Marlins (M Latos - R must Start J Fernandez - R must Start)

PS, who the F is on the Marlins???

Makes no sense. Reds lineup is fully in tact, no one's sitting. But even if Votto were to be declared out you'd only see a 5 point drop in the line basically. I don't understand the attraction in the Marlins here. The kid pitching isn't allowed to go more than 5 innings pretty much with 85 pitches or I could see it

[rim rocker]

Call you brock? Thats an auto fade

[AceKingHigh]

will see what's going on, I'm afraid from this game now.. :S

[TheMetsSuck]

seems logical

[eaglesforlife33]

I hear the dogs barking...Beware of the might Marlin tonight!

[RavensFan2k3]

Maybe because of this

"Although he's 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in four career starts in Miami, Latos allowed one run and struck out 10 over seven innings before leaving without a decision in a 2-1 home loss to the Marlins on April 19."

Also Fernandez's succes vs. lefties

[tatddy]

I like of like MIA +1.5 here but haven't made a play yet.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Have to do better than that Benny in order to get anywhere near Brock's neighborhood it has to be -200 or higher! GL

[BennyBigNuts]

I like of like MIA +1.5 here but haven't made a play yet.

You missed the price if you do. You'll have to lay money on that now. Coulda had plus betting it early.

[tatddy]

You missed the price if you do. You'll have to lay money on that now. Coulda had plus betting it early.

Opened at -110 didn't it? I'm not losing much.

[BennyBigNuts]

Reds just went to -170 within an hour of my post. Sharps were all over that temporary price.

[daneblazer]

Reverse line movement on this game. Moved down then hammered back up...Hmmmm

[fitguy67]

i just put on Reds -1 at -127.32...made up of ML=-161 and RL=+105 (both at 5d)***

if reds win by just 1 run, it's as if I just stayed away from the chalky ML bet altogehter--so no downside really...but if they win by more than that, it's a 26.77% bigger payout than if i couldn't resist

-1's aren't everyone's cup of tea...but they come in handy in "should I or shouldn't I" situations like this
__________

***sharp readers will notice i didn't take the "off the shelf" -1RL of -129, available from the pull-down menu..by "rolling your own" -1RL's you always pocket at least a point and a half, as is the case here... usually more than that

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

[pattymayo]

GL benny ben

[I/O]

With the Redbirds going down earlier, Cinci is gonna be the square oasis for many on the night card. SU and especially tied into A LOT of pars. Books will be sitting fine tonight if the Reds dump.

[tto827]

Juan Pierre with a leadoff HR... gotta be one of the oldest lead off hitters in MLB history

[Hangoverblack]

Well that didn't take long.

These threads (juice plays) are always this way. Have to be +EV fades.

[Vinnie Paz]

Just grabbed them live —110

[ROYAJA8]

That line did seem fishy with Reds going up against a garbage marlins team. I stayed away from that game but love Strasburg coming back to San Diego versus the padres -140 is very low.

[TCU]

Getting +140 in play at 0-1. Latos has retired 9 in a row now. In play odds can be crazy.

[BennyBigNuts]

Getting +140 in play at 0-1. Latos has retired 9 in a row now. In play odds can be crazy.

You have an awesome bet my friend. Woulda loved to bet that down 1-0 after one batter. Just a lucky swing. Latos is a beast.

[I/O]

New ballgame

[Dollars2Donuts]

Maybe Chapman should throw strikes. With two outs he leads the guy off with two balls and gives him a hitters count....pow, triple.

[iQon]

Maybe Chapman should throw strikes. With two outs he leads the guy off with two balls and gives him a hitters count....pow, triple.

Maybe you should watch the game.

[I/O]

Nice hit Benny!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Maybe you should watch the game.

Ok homer

[iQon]

Ok homer

Misread that with one contact in. I thought you were referring to the triple Latos gave up.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Misread that with one contact in. I thought you were referring to the triple Latos gave up.

No worries. Thanks again for the tip on the moving line Benny I had passed on it this am.

I owe you one.

[tatddy]

Good win. I knew once the fukking marlins tied it in the 9th I was dead.

I'll sleep we'll knowing I made the right play

[BennyBigNuts]

Good win. I knew once the fukking marlins tied it in the 9th I was dead.

I'll sleep we'll knowing I made the right play

Oh you took the +1.5? Sorry bud. That was unlucky.
Shoulda never went to extras in the first place. Baker let Latos pitch count fukk that up. Chapman should automatically be in the 9th inning in any one run game unless the starter has a no-hitter.
Baker sucks as a manager though.

[El Nino]

Good win. I knew once the fukking marlins tied it in the 9th I was dead.

I'll sleep we'll knowing I made the right play

You def. did. I was on the Reds -1.5 and chalked it up as a loser after the top of the 9th. I've been terrible in bases this season.

[iifold]

Had Reds/Marlins Under (7) and Rays ML...