Sorry for getting these out so late in the week, but as I have been whining about, the holidays have made it hard to get any free time/space to do these.
Please excuse me for any mistakes I may have made, was up until about 5 AM putting these together.
Enjoy!
(Don't need to be watched in any particular order)
Philadelphia/Minnesota
Atlanta/Arizona
Baltimore/Miami
Indianapolis/San Diego
EDIT: Adding write ups for those that just want my quick leans
SATURDAY
#5 Atlanta Falcons 11- 5 (-2.0) @ #4 Arizona Cardinals 9 - 7 (+2.0)
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Neither defense matches up particularly well. Atlanta should be able to establish the run and open up the passing game as they have all year long, while Kurt Warner and the best wide receiving core in the league should be able to pass well against Atlanta's 22nd ranked passing defense. Due to the potential shoot-out nature of this game, I think Arizona is the likeliest "upset" this week. That being said, I have to take Atlanta here; they are the more physical team, they have the momentum, and what has Arizona really proven? 6 of their 9 wins were against lowly division opponents, making them 3 - 7 out of division. They just haven't shown me enough to lead me to believe that they can beat a tough team like Atlanta in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
OVER/UNDER 51: Over
#5 Indianapolis Colts 12 - 4 @ #4 San Diego Chargers 8 - 8 (Pick'em)
On paper, the Colts match up very well against the Chargers. They have the league's 5th best passing attack VS. the Chargers' 31st ranked passing defense. The Chargers haven't been able to get pressure on teams this year either, which is usually the only way you can beat Peyton Manning. The Colts also defend against the pass well, Tony Dungy is a superior coach to Norv Turner, and they've also won 9 straight games. The Chargers at 8 - 8 have lost the close games all year while the Colts have won them, showing me that the Colts have a little more fight in them. Needless to say, it won't be as easy on the field as it is on paper, especially in San Diego; but I still believe very strongly that the Colts are the right side in this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 51: Under
SUNDAY
#6 Baltimore Ravens 11 - 5 (-3.5) @ #3 Miami Dolphins 11 - 5 (+3.5)
You all know the age old adage; defense wins championships. And with a few exceptions here or there, this adage rings true. The Baltimore Ravens are built like a championship team; they have the league's 3rd best passing defense and the 2nd best rushing defense. They also run the ball often and run the ball well. The Dolphins have had an incredible season, and if anything is going to score on the Ravens it would be the creative Wildcat offense; but I think the Ravens defense is just too tough. The Ravens have already beaten Miami in Miami this year 27 - 13, and I expect a similar result this time around. I actually see it being even more low scoring, and while I wouldn't recommend betting the under on such a low number, if I must pick a side I do believe this game will stay under 38 and finish in the 20 - 10 ballpark.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 38: Under
#6 Philadelphia Eagles 9 - 6 - 1 (-3.0) @ #3 Minnesota Vikings 10 - 6 (+3.0)
Thanks to the Oakland Raiders upsetting Tampa Bay as a 13 point underdog, the Eagles playoff hopes were alive heading into their game against Dallas; and they certainly made the most of it. While the Eagles are known for their offense led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, they have quietly put together an excellent season on defense. 4th best in the league against the run, 3rd best in the league against the pass, and 3rd best in the league in sacks (matches up very favorably against the Vikes, who are 26th in the league in sacks against). Like I said with Baltimore, defense wins championships. And while the Eagles may not have the high profile defense the Ravens or Steelers or Titans do, they are right up there in the top 5 with them. Having seasoned veteran Donovan McNabb against unproven young Tavaris Jackson doesn't hurt, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 42: Under
Please excuse me for any mistakes I may have made, was up until about 5 AM putting these together.
Enjoy!
(Don't need to be watched in any particular order)
Philadelphia/Minnesota
Atlanta/Arizona
Baltimore/Miami
Indianapolis/San Diego
EDIT: Adding write ups for those that just want my quick leans
SATURDAY
#5 Atlanta Falcons 11- 5 (-2.0) @ #4 Arizona Cardinals 9 - 7 (+2.0)
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Neither defense matches up particularly well. Atlanta should be able to establish the run and open up the passing game as they have all year long, while Kurt Warner and the best wide receiving core in the league should be able to pass well against Atlanta's 22nd ranked passing defense. Due to the potential shoot-out nature of this game, I think Arizona is the likeliest "upset" this week. That being said, I have to take Atlanta here; they are the more physical team, they have the momentum, and what has Arizona really proven? 6 of their 9 wins were against lowly division opponents, making them 3 - 7 out of division. They just haven't shown me enough to lead me to believe that they can beat a tough team like Atlanta in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
OVER/UNDER 51: Over
#5 Indianapolis Colts 12 - 4 @ #4 San Diego Chargers 8 - 8 (Pick'em)
On paper, the Colts match up very well against the Chargers. They have the league's 5th best passing attack VS. the Chargers' 31st ranked passing defense. The Chargers haven't been able to get pressure on teams this year either, which is usually the only way you can beat Peyton Manning. The Colts also defend against the pass well, Tony Dungy is a superior coach to Norv Turner, and they've also won 9 straight games. The Chargers at 8 - 8 have lost the close games all year while the Colts have won them, showing me that the Colts have a little more fight in them. Needless to say, it won't be as easy on the field as it is on paper, especially in San Diego; but I still believe very strongly that the Colts are the right side in this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 51: Under
SUNDAY
#6 Baltimore Ravens 11 - 5 (-3.5) @ #3 Miami Dolphins 11 - 5 (+3.5)
You all know the age old adage; defense wins championships. And with a few exceptions here or there, this adage rings true. The Baltimore Ravens are built like a championship team; they have the league's 3rd best passing defense and the 2nd best rushing defense. They also run the ball often and run the ball well. The Dolphins have had an incredible season, and if anything is going to score on the Ravens it would be the creative Wildcat offense; but I think the Ravens defense is just too tough. The Ravens have already beaten Miami in Miami this year 27 - 13, and I expect a similar result this time around. I actually see it being even more low scoring, and while I wouldn't recommend betting the under on such a low number, if I must pick a side I do believe this game will stay under 38 and finish in the 20 - 10 ballpark.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 38: Under
#6 Philadelphia Eagles 9 - 6 - 1 (-3.0) @ #3 Minnesota Vikings 10 - 6 (+3.0)
Thanks to the Oakland Raiders upsetting Tampa Bay as a 13 point underdog, the Eagles playoff hopes were alive heading into their game against Dallas; and they certainly made the most of it. While the Eagles are known for their offense led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, they have quietly put together an excellent season on defense. 4th best in the league against the run, 3rd best in the league against the pass, and 3rd best in the league in sacks (matches up very favorably against the Vikes, who are 26th in the league in sacks against). Like I said with Baltimore, defense wins championships. And while the Eagles may not have the high profile defense the Ravens or Steelers or Titans do, they are right up there in the top 5 with them. Having seasoned veteran Donovan McNabb against unproven young Tavaris Jackson doesn't hurt, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 42: Under
