How do you handicap this? You can't just say Durant is set at 34, other players are at 20 so the line is 5 points off. There are countless possibilities and combinations for this prop. Pretend the prop was OKC highest scoring player -9.5 vs all the players in all game 1s in all 4 semis, with countless players set around a max of 20 (for the sake of argument). Then it would be against a much larger field. Even though Durant is predicted to score 15 points more than the next guy, there are much more possibilities for one of them to go over. How does field size affect this play? Interesting probability thought exercise.
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Grape that's a great question.
For me, I liked it immediately because of these two things.
Gasol and Randolph are going to compete for points and are one of them is likely to be their teams leading scorer, with the other finishing not far behind.
With this OKC team, Durant is a clear #1. If Westbrook was playing, I certainly would have laid off this bet at -9.5
But what we've seen since Russ went down is a ton of shots by Durant and a high scoring efficiency. He's more aggressive and getting to the line where he shoots 90%.
That's why I tailed. Knowing Durant would get a lot of shots and knowing the #1 and #2 options for t he Griz were likely to be about 50/50.
Today it worked out
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Since RW went down, here's what KD's done over the last 5 games
60/118 FG, 51% (avg 24 shots/game)
48/56 FT's, 87% (avg 11 FT's/game)
35.4 PPGComment -
Good points, I'm sure Memphis was trying to slow him down, he still got his shots tho pretty easilyComment -
grape this line was a little off. 2 points i think, what would you say a fair line for Memphis leading scorer is 22.5?
considering gasols o/u was 16 and randolphs was 18 i would say thats about right.
then durants o/u is 34.5, thats 12 pts different.
when durant was playing houston it was -6.5, and thats with harden chucking all over the floor. so vs a team like memphis 9.5 is a good deal i believeComment -
Seemed like a good line. Haven't seen these kind of props or given too much thought. But to set a line like this is harder than the formula Kd predicted points - (highest predicted points of any Memphis player). But actually the way Kd will be the leading scorer and Zach or Marc leading for Memphis, maybe it is an accurate estimation. For this case the leading scorers on each team is most likely a smaller field. Not sure where I'm going with this, just got me thinking of all the different combinations.Comment -
These lines are harder to set and are much less accurate that side/totals. In turn, the limits are lowComment -
Limits very lowComment -
250 limit i believe. unless the line changes right? then u can bet the limit againComment -
Sbot, I'm sure everyone has different limits.Comment
