Last full newsletter of the season. Hope you guys have enjoyed them... thanks so much for taking the time to read and comment 
SUNDAY
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
The battle of two very competitive terrible teams. Cincinnati has picked up two straight wins, while Kansas City has fought admirably over the last month in losing efforts (and a win over Oakland). I think this one will come down to who wants it more; and we all know that Herm Edwards PLAYS - TO WIN - THE GAME, even when his team is well out of it. Fresh off of two wins, I think Cincinnati has to be content with the way they've closed out their season, and Kansas City goes out a little hungrier and picks up the win. It also helps that Cincinnati's 4th-worst-in-the-league rushing attack won't be able to exploit Kansas City's gaping weakness; its rushing defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
Oakland (+13.0) @ Tampa Bay (-13.0)
Team that needs a win VS. bottom dweller team? It doesn't get a whole lot more win-needing or bottom-dwelling then these two. And as usual, we get a ton of points for taking the garbage. When the Raiders are involved you can never count out a blowout loss; but with the confidence gained from last week and a seemingly healthy rushing duo of Fargas and McFadden, the Raiders could keep this one in single digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Cleveland (+11.0) @ Pittsburgh (-11.0)
Pittsburgh has nothing to play for; absolutely nothing. They will be the 2nd seed in the AFC West and get a bye next week win, lose, or tie. As such, I simply can't lay 11 points on a team with no motivation at all. They'll do the "rah-rah go into the playoffs on a high note" bit, but they probably know that even a half hearted effort should be enough to beat the Browns. The Browns meanwhile will be playing for pride against a hated rival, and Bruce Gradkowski will get the chance to start, and he'll be auditioning for a job (at least as a backup) somewhere next year. Lots of reasons to like the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
New England (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
Buffalo has done a great job in the role of spoiler so far this year, so why not this game? As I mentioned last week I almost always go with division rival home dogs this late in the season, and the fact that New England NEEDS this win makes it all the more enticing. New England has scored 47 plus in 2 straight games, yet they are only a 6 point favorite here? Roughly 82% of bettors are on New England, and the line moved from 6.5 to 6? And it is NEW ENGLAND, a team that the public adores anyway? If none of this seems fishy to you, by all means, grab the Patriots and root for another 40 point performance; I'm taking the Bills to end New England's season early.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Atlanta (-14.0)
St. Louis really isn't any threat to actually win this game, but you know how I feel about betting bad teams against teams that need a win. And Atlanta most certainly does; Yes they make the playoffs no matter what, but a win here gives them the 2nd seed if Carolina loses. 1st round bye and 1st playoff game at home, or playing next week and the next (if you make it) on the road? Needless to say, this one matters. Even still, 14 points is quite a bit; if they get up 14 or 17, I'm sure they will rest starters and give St. Louis a chance to creep back into a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Chicago (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
This is one of those games that I believe the spread tells the whole story. The Bears have won 3 straight and are alive in the playoff race, and can even win the NFC North with a win and a Minnesota loss. The Texans are coming off of a loss to the Oakland Raiders. And the TEXANS are the FG favorite here? That pretty much tells you all you need to know. Need more? Houston's 4th ranked passing attack VS. Chicago's 28th ranked passing defense. The Texans are also 5 - 2 at home while the Bears are 3 - 4 on the road; with 2 of those 3 wins against Detroit and St. Louis. Everything points to Houston here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
One of those games that's impossible to cap, considering the fact that neither team has anything to play for, so it comes down to coaching philosophies at this point. I'll take the Titans simply for what will eventually be the QB match-up; Vince Young VS. Jim Sorgi. Young will be eager to prove that he is ready and willing to re-take the starting job next year (or in the playoffs if need be)... Sorgi will be... well... Sorgi.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
New York Giants (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0)
One of the tougher games to figure out this week. Tom Coughlin is a big proponent of playing all of your starters and going into the playoffs with momentum, but I don't believe for a second that Brandon Jacobs is actually going to get much more than 5 carries in this game. I'm all for keeping the momentum, but not giving your bruised up team a chance to rest when you've earned home field throughout is nothing short of stupid. But even with my disbelief, I'm still going to take the touchdown worth of points here. A lot like bottom-feeder teams can play fun and play loose against teams that NEED wins, why shouldn't backups for the Giants be doing the same? Every back-up player wants to prove to the coach that they are ready to go in case of injury, and what better chance to do it in a game like this? Besides that, the way these two teams are built, there will be lots of running and lots of clock being eaten. Even with resting starters, I think the Giants +7.0 isn't a bad idea. And if Coughlin really is crazy enough to keep his starters in there the whole game? Even better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
Division rival home underdog, and they have the chance to spoil Carolina's playoffs (they'd still go, but would have to start on the road instead of at home fresh off of a bye). This is also likely the last game for fan favorite Deuce McAllister in a Saints jersey, and there is an off chance that Brees could set the all time passing yards single-season record if he goes over 400 yards (unlikely, but he has done it twice this year). New Orleans has plenty of reason to want to finish the season with a win here, and against a tense Carolina, I think they pull it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans
Detroit (+10.5) @ Green Bay (-10.5)
So this is it, the unthinkable 0 - 16 season is a mere 60 minutes away. Will Green Bay win? Yes, I'm pretty sure they will. Will they cover this spread? Fairly likely. But no matter how awful the Lions may be, why would I want to lay 10.5 points on a 5 - 10 team that has lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 that is playing against a team that will be putting every ounce of energy they have on the line in this one? I really don't want to take the Lions, but they make a lot more sense to me then the Packers do here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Seattle (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Two weeks ago, Arizona had nothing to play for since they'd already clinched the division, and they got destroyed by the Vikings at home. Last week, still with nothing to play for, they went into snowy New England and got absolutely manhandled again. This week, they DO have something to play for; momentum. A loss in this game, and the might as well not even show up next week in the playoffs. Even a close game here would just be a terrible skid to end the season. This team needs a pick me up game really bad, and at home against Seattle is the perfect match up. They need to win this one big to feel anything resembling confidence heading into the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
Dallas (+1.0) @ Philadelphia (-1.0)
This should be a great game, especially if the last time these teams met up is any indication. This game has me torn, because Dallas's defense is playing much better football then they were back then; but back then, Romo was healthy and there was a lot less drama in Dallas. I don't believe for a second that Romo is 100%, and I think he'll need to be to go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles. The crowd should be rocking, McNabb and Westbrook should bounce back after last week's upset loss to Washington; Dallas is capable of winning this game, but I think Philadelphia is the right side to be on this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets (-2.5)
I really hate taking the Jets here. Miami has put together such a great season, and they deserve to go to the playoffs. Seeing pro-bowl snub Chad Pennington beat his former team and over-rated reeling Brett Favre would just be priceless, and make for a great story. I just have this incredibly strong gut feeling that the Jets come out on top here; if recent form is any indication, this shouldn't be the case, but I just see the Jets finally putting a good game together at home this week. I'm sorry I can't describe it with stats or anything, I just have an overwhelming feeling that the Jets win here; and as much as I want Miami to win, I'd be going against my better judgement if I took them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
Washington (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
I think this game is indeed San Francisco's for the taking. Washington's Super Bowl was played last week, when they upset the Eagles and made their potential trip to the playoffs that much more difficult. Traveling to San Francisco now, there really isn't any reason to get up for this game. San Francisco meanwhile has a winning attitude engrained in them with Mike Singletary at the helm, and finishing the season with wins in 4 of their last 5 would be a huge step in the right direction for next season. They should get it done Sunday against the checked-out Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Team needs a win VS. terrible team. This has to be a broken record by now, doesn't it? I'm sorry to not provide better information and a thoughtful write-up on this game, but it all comes back to the same basic philosophy that teams that need wins will be tight and not play their best games in games that they KNOW they should win against lousy opponents. It brings me no joy to pick against the Ravens, but I can't make an exception for them; a rule is a rule.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Denver (+8.0) @ San Diego (-8.0)
San Diego is so damn annoying to cap, because their win margins are so bizarre. 19, 10, 20, 1, 27, 1, 17. Throw out the two 1's (both Kansas City), and San Diego either wins big or loses. I think they are going to win this game, but I also think 8 points is blown out of proportion; EVERYONE has been penciling San Diego in as the AFC West winners since day one, and now that all this has transpired, EVERYONE is on San Diego to win this game. But they are still just a 7 - 8 team, with 4 of those wins against Oakland and Kansas City. Do they really deserve to be an 8 point favorite here? I say no, but if they follow their season trend, they'll win by double digits anyway. Please save yourself and stay far, far away from this game. I sadly must pick something, and I'll go with my first instinct and take Denver and the points. Maybe San Diego can win by something normal like 3, 4, or 7 for a change this week?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Good Luck!
THE INTRO
Another 8 - 8 week.
I could complain about how brutal losing that Jacksonville and Carolina game were, among others, but that's just football.
What bugs me the most about last week? I didn't take St. Louis and Green Bay, even though right in my write-up I said "this should be a philosophy pick, but I have enough of those already".
Who cares how many you have? Each game is an individual event. I need to break the habit of worrying about what I picked in other games.
Week 17 is one of the toughest weeks to cap. You don't know who will be resting, who will be playing, all you can do is make educated guesses. But its hard enough to win when you DO know who is playing!
But I will say this. Two weeks ago, I didn't go dog heavy because I simply forgot it was that time of year. Last week, I went dog heavy but I didn't fully commit, and it cost me on a few games I'd have normally taken.
This week? I'm all-in on garbage.
Hope you like playing 72 off-suit against pocket aces, because I'll be doing it plenty this week.
As I said last week: Embrace the chaos.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 6 - 10 - 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 - 3 - 0 (.571)
Season
With the spread: 122 - 112 - 6 (.521)
Without the spread: 149 - 90 - 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 22 - 9 - 0 (.710)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Another 8 - 8 week.
I could complain about how brutal losing that Jacksonville and Carolina game were, among others, but that's just football.
What bugs me the most about last week? I didn't take St. Louis and Green Bay, even though right in my write-up I said "this should be a philosophy pick, but I have enough of those already".
Who cares how many you have? Each game is an individual event. I need to break the habit of worrying about what I picked in other games.
Week 17 is one of the toughest weeks to cap. You don't know who will be resting, who will be playing, all you can do is make educated guesses. But its hard enough to win when you DO know who is playing!
But I will say this. Two weeks ago, I didn't go dog heavy because I simply forgot it was that time of year. Last week, I went dog heavy but I didn't fully commit, and it cost me on a few games I'd have normally taken.
This week? I'm all-in on garbage.
Hope you like playing 72 off-suit against pocket aces, because I'll be doing it plenty this week.
As I said last week: Embrace the chaos.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 6 - 10 - 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 - 3 - 0 (.571)
Season
With the spread: 122 - 112 - 6 (.521)
Without the spread: 149 - 90 - 1 (.623)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 22 - 9 - 0 (.710)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
SUNDAY
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
The battle of two very competitive terrible teams. Cincinnati has picked up two straight wins, while Kansas City has fought admirably over the last month in losing efforts (and a win over Oakland). I think this one will come down to who wants it more; and we all know that Herm Edwards PLAYS - TO WIN - THE GAME, even when his team is well out of it. Fresh off of two wins, I think Cincinnati has to be content with the way they've closed out their season, and Kansas City goes out a little hungrier and picks up the win. It also helps that Cincinnati's 4th-worst-in-the-league rushing attack won't be able to exploit Kansas City's gaping weakness; its rushing defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
Oakland (+13.0) @ Tampa Bay (-13.0)
Team that needs a win VS. bottom dweller team? It doesn't get a whole lot more win-needing or bottom-dwelling then these two. And as usual, we get a ton of points for taking the garbage. When the Raiders are involved you can never count out a blowout loss; but with the confidence gained from last week and a seemingly healthy rushing duo of Fargas and McFadden, the Raiders could keep this one in single digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Cleveland (+11.0) @ Pittsburgh (-11.0)
Pittsburgh has nothing to play for; absolutely nothing. They will be the 2nd seed in the AFC West and get a bye next week win, lose, or tie. As such, I simply can't lay 11 points on a team with no motivation at all. They'll do the "rah-rah go into the playoffs on a high note" bit, but they probably know that even a half hearted effort should be enough to beat the Browns. The Browns meanwhile will be playing for pride against a hated rival, and Bruce Gradkowski will get the chance to start, and he'll be auditioning for a job (at least as a backup) somewhere next year. Lots of reasons to like the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
New England (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
Buffalo has done a great job in the role of spoiler so far this year, so why not this game? As I mentioned last week I almost always go with division rival home dogs this late in the season, and the fact that New England NEEDS this win makes it all the more enticing. New England has scored 47 plus in 2 straight games, yet they are only a 6 point favorite here? Roughly 82% of bettors are on New England, and the line moved from 6.5 to 6? And it is NEW ENGLAND, a team that the public adores anyway? If none of this seems fishy to you, by all means, grab the Patriots and root for another 40 point performance; I'm taking the Bills to end New England's season early.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
St. Louis (+14.0) @ Atlanta (-14.0)
St. Louis really isn't any threat to actually win this game, but you know how I feel about betting bad teams against teams that need a win. And Atlanta most certainly does; Yes they make the playoffs no matter what, but a win here gives them the 2nd seed if Carolina loses. 1st round bye and 1st playoff game at home, or playing next week and the next (if you make it) on the road? Needless to say, this one matters. Even still, 14 points is quite a bit; if they get up 14 or 17, I'm sure they will rest starters and give St. Louis a chance to creep back into a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
Chicago (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
This is one of those games that I believe the spread tells the whole story. The Bears have won 3 straight and are alive in the playoff race, and can even win the NFC North with a win and a Minnesota loss. The Texans are coming off of a loss to the Oakland Raiders. And the TEXANS are the FG favorite here? That pretty much tells you all you need to know. Need more? Houston's 4th ranked passing attack VS. Chicago's 28th ranked passing defense. The Texans are also 5 - 2 at home while the Bears are 3 - 4 on the road; with 2 of those 3 wins against Detroit and St. Louis. Everything points to Houston here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
Tennessee (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
One of those games that's impossible to cap, considering the fact that neither team has anything to play for, so it comes down to coaching philosophies at this point. I'll take the Titans simply for what will eventually be the QB match-up; Vince Young VS. Jim Sorgi. Young will be eager to prove that he is ready and willing to re-take the starting job next year (or in the playoffs if need be)... Sorgi will be... well... Sorgi.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
New York Giants (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0)
One of the tougher games to figure out this week. Tom Coughlin is a big proponent of playing all of your starters and going into the playoffs with momentum, but I don't believe for a second that Brandon Jacobs is actually going to get much more than 5 carries in this game. I'm all for keeping the momentum, but not giving your bruised up team a chance to rest when you've earned home field throughout is nothing short of stupid. But even with my disbelief, I'm still going to take the touchdown worth of points here. A lot like bottom-feeder teams can play fun and play loose against teams that NEED wins, why shouldn't backups for the Giants be doing the same? Every back-up player wants to prove to the coach that they are ready to go in case of injury, and what better chance to do it in a game like this? Besides that, the way these two teams are built, there will be lots of running and lots of clock being eaten. Even with resting starters, I think the Giants +7.0 isn't a bad idea. And if Coughlin really is crazy enough to keep his starters in there the whole game? Even better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
Division rival home underdog, and they have the chance to spoil Carolina's playoffs (they'd still go, but would have to start on the road instead of at home fresh off of a bye). This is also likely the last game for fan favorite Deuce McAllister in a Saints jersey, and there is an off chance that Brees could set the all time passing yards single-season record if he goes over 400 yards (unlikely, but he has done it twice this year). New Orleans has plenty of reason to want to finish the season with a win here, and against a tense Carolina, I think they pull it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*New Orleans
Detroit (+10.5) @ Green Bay (-10.5)
So this is it, the unthinkable 0 - 16 season is a mere 60 minutes away. Will Green Bay win? Yes, I'm pretty sure they will. Will they cover this spread? Fairly likely. But no matter how awful the Lions may be, why would I want to lay 10.5 points on a 5 - 10 team that has lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 that is playing against a team that will be putting every ounce of energy they have on the line in this one? I really don't want to take the Lions, but they make a lot more sense to me then the Packers do here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Seattle (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Two weeks ago, Arizona had nothing to play for since they'd already clinched the division, and they got destroyed by the Vikings at home. Last week, still with nothing to play for, they went into snowy New England and got absolutely manhandled again. This week, they DO have something to play for; momentum. A loss in this game, and the might as well not even show up next week in the playoffs. Even a close game here would just be a terrible skid to end the season. This team needs a pick me up game really bad, and at home against Seattle is the perfect match up. They need to win this one big to feel anything resembling confidence heading into the playoffs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
Dallas (+1.0) @ Philadelphia (-1.0)
This should be a great game, especially if the last time these teams met up is any indication. This game has me torn, because Dallas's defense is playing much better football then they were back then; but back then, Romo was healthy and there was a lot less drama in Dallas. I don't believe for a second that Romo is 100%, and I think he'll need to be to go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles. The crowd should be rocking, McNabb and Westbrook should bounce back after last week's upset loss to Washington; Dallas is capable of winning this game, but I think Philadelphia is the right side to be on this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets (-2.5)
I really hate taking the Jets here. Miami has put together such a great season, and they deserve to go to the playoffs. Seeing pro-bowl snub Chad Pennington beat his former team and over-rated reeling Brett Favre would just be priceless, and make for a great story. I just have this incredibly strong gut feeling that the Jets come out on top here; if recent form is any indication, this shouldn't be the case, but I just see the Jets finally putting a good game together at home this week. I'm sorry I can't describe it with stats or anything, I just have an overwhelming feeling that the Jets win here; and as much as I want Miami to win, I'd be going against my better judgement if I took them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
Washington (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
I think this game is indeed San Francisco's for the taking. Washington's Super Bowl was played last week, when they upset the Eagles and made their potential trip to the playoffs that much more difficult. Traveling to San Francisco now, there really isn't any reason to get up for this game. San Francisco meanwhile has a winning attitude engrained in them with Mike Singletary at the helm, and finishing the season with wins in 4 of their last 5 would be a huge step in the right direction for next season. They should get it done Sunday against the checked-out Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Team needs a win VS. terrible team. This has to be a broken record by now, doesn't it? I'm sorry to not provide better information and a thoughtful write-up on this game, but it all comes back to the same basic philosophy that teams that need wins will be tight and not play their best games in games that they KNOW they should win against lousy opponents. It brings me no joy to pick against the Ravens, but I can't make an exception for them; a rule is a rule.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Denver (+8.0) @ San Diego (-8.0)
San Diego is so damn annoying to cap, because their win margins are so bizarre. 19, 10, 20, 1, 27, 1, 17. Throw out the two 1's (both Kansas City), and San Diego either wins big or loses. I think they are going to win this game, but I also think 8 points is blown out of proportion; EVERYONE has been penciling San Diego in as the AFC West winners since day one, and now that all this has transpired, EVERYONE is on San Diego to win this game. But they are still just a 7 - 8 team, with 4 of those wins against Oakland and Kansas City. Do they really deserve to be an 8 point favorite here? I say no, but if they follow their season trend, they'll win by double digits anyway. Please save yourself and stay far, far away from this game. I sadly must pick something, and I'll go with my first instinct and take Denver and the points. Maybe San Diego can win by something normal like 3, 4, or 7 for a change this week?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Good Luck!
